France’s political parties are racing to discuss possible alliances after President Emmanuel Macron’s shock decision to call a snap election, with an ally of the president calling it the “most consequential” election in decades.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) trounced the president’s alliance in European parliamentary elections, with 31 per cent of the vote. Mr Macron’s centrist ticket won just 15 per cent. As the European Union reeled in the wake of Sunday’s results, which saw the far right score wins in Belgium and Austria, and second-place finishes in Germany and the Netherlands, it was the fallout in France which truly set alarm bells ringing across the continent.
The euro and French stocks fell sharply as markets were spooked by Mr Macron’s decision to dissolve the French National Assembly to throw down the gauntlet to Ms Le Pen.
The decision appeared to catch even those close to Mr Macron off guard, as well as his opponents. Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, of the Socialist Party, said she was “stunned” and struggling to understand the “extremely unsettling” move by Mr Macron, who has three years left in his presidential term.
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of RN party, said on Monday that talks were underway over forming a far-right party alliance for the parliamentary elections, although no formal deal had yet been done. A poll published earlier on Monday showed that RN could potentially win 235 to 265 of the 577 seats in the French lower house of parliament – probably enough to make them the single largest party but not win an absolute majority. “Nothing has been decided on yet,” Mr Bardella told reporters.
Those comments came after RN leaders held talks with Marion Marechal, of the smaller far-right Reconquete party, over a possible deal that could see her join them in some form. Ms Marechal is Ms Le Pen’s niece and used to be a prominent member of her party before they fell out.
Leaders of the divided French left – the hard-left LFI (France Unbowed), Communists, Socialists and Greens – were also holding talks.
“We don’t have time to procrastinate,” said Manon Aubry, of LFI. “The objective is to be able to meet again, to build the future, and above all to go and win.”
A source close to Mr Macron said he believed he could either win back the absolute parliamentary majority he lost two years ago by taking everyone by surprise, or in the event of defeat, demonstrate National Rally’s incompetence in government and thereby undermine a likely presidential bid by Ms Le Pen in 2027.
“I knew this option was on the table, but when it becomes reality it’s something else ... I didn’t sleep last night,” the source told Reuters.
As the discussions over possible alliances ahead of the two-round ballots starting on 30 June were going on, Mr Macron’s Renaissance party ally Emmanuel Pellerin said: “We’re still in shock. Everything points to the RN winning a relative or absolute majority. But that forces the French to think about what is at stake.”
This sentiment was echoed by France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire, who told RTL radio the vote would be the most consequential parliamentary election “in the history of the Fifth Republic” – a reference to Charles de Gaulle’s 1958 constitution, considered the birth of modern French politics.
Germany’s government said there was no prospect that Olaf Scholz would be following suit with a snap election of his own, despite the chancellor’s Social Democrats, which leads the coalition government, slumping to their worst EU election result, winning just 14 per cent of the vote. Markus Soder, the conservative governor of Bavaria, said: “This government is basically finished and we need to do what France has done.”
Boosted by Sunday’s election results, Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni told Italian broadcaster RTL that Ms Le Pen’s victory was “very important” and representative of wider shifts in Europe.
In the US, an adviser to president Joe Biden told Reuters there was concern that Ms Le Pen’s party’s more anti-Nato stance could pose a threat to the alliance, but another official said Washington did not expect any major foreign policy changes from the EU, and believes Ursula von der Leyen would be able to stay on as EU president.
Ms Von der Leyen, the European Commission chief, was on Monday trying to piece together a coalition, after provisional results on Monday gave the main parties that backed her last time – of her European People’s Party, socialists and liberals – a total of 402 seats in the 720-member parliament.
To secure a second five-year term, Ms Von der Leyen needs the support of a majority of the EU’s national leaders and a working majority in the European Parliament.
It is expected that she may also reach out to the Greens, who suffered heavy losses, and Ms Meloni, with whom she has worked closely – with the new rightwards shift potentially making it tougher to pass new legislation to respond to security challenges, climate change or industrial competition from China and the US.
Additional reporting by agencies
