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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Lili Bayer in Brussels

France election live: exit poll puts far-right National Rally ahead

Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen National Rally France Jordan Bardella New Popular Front RN
Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen after her Rassemblement National party was projected to have got a 34.2% share of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters

Prime minister calls for voting for candidates who defend republic

Gabriel Attal, the prime minister and an ally of Emmanuel Macron, is speaking now.

The lesson of this evening is that the far-right is at the gates of power, he warned.

The goal is to prevent the far-right from governing, he said, telling citizens that no votes should go to the National Rally.

He said the responsible move is for candidates in third place in runoffs to withdraw and support other candidates who defend the values ​​of the republic.

Updated

An ELABE estimate for BFMTV of the seat distribution puts the far-right National Rally at 255-295 seats and the New Popular Front at 120-140.

But it’s still early, and we should treat these numbers with caution.

Updated estimates published

And here are the updated estimations from Ifop – with the caveat that these numbers do not necessarily represent the final outcome in the national assembly.

Updated

The hard left France Unbowed’s François Ruffin said “the candidates who come third must withdraw to beat the RN.”

“Now the ball is in the court of Gabriel Attal and Emmanuel Macron,” he said.

The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, was re-elected in Seine-et-Marne in the first round.

Here are the latest Ipsos estimates.

As always, these numbers should be treated with caution.

François Hollande, a former president of France who is running in the legislative election as part of the New Popular Front, said there’s a need to prevent the far right from getting a majority in the national assembly.

Updated

Here are some images from election night

Updated

Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister, has called on citizens to vote for forces committed to liberty and respect for the rule of law.

He said no votes should go to the far right National Rally and the hard left France Unbowed.

In northern France, one of the most popular figures on the French left — the head of the Communist party, Fabien Roussel — has been knocked out in the first round by the far-right National Rally candidate, Guillaume Florquin.

Updates estimates published

Here are the updated numbers from IFOP – with the caveat that these national estimates do not necessarily reflect the final results in the national assembly, given the races in individual constituencies.

Far right National Rally: 34%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%

Updated

Marine Le Pen elected

The far-right politician won a seat in the first round in her district in Pas-de-Calais.

Why are the three-way runoffs so important?

In recent French parliamentary elections, the vast majority of second-round contests have been head-to-head duels between the two leading candidates from the first round, with fewer than a dozen so-called “triangular” run-offs.

However, the combination of a very high turnout - estimated at nearly 70%, the highest since the 1980s - and fewer candidates (because they are concentrated into three main blocs, the left, the centre and the far right) means that number is likely to surge dramatically.

The pollster Ipsos has estimated that there will be between 285 and 315 three-way contests, up to four times as many as the previous record in 1997. Traditionally, in triangular runoffs where far-right National Rally (RN) is in the lead, the third-placed candidate has pulled out so as not to split the opposition vote.

The fact that nearly half the seats in the 577-seat assembly will go to three-way runoffs makes an estimate of the final distribution of seats in the national assembly extremely hard to predict and is likely to lead to frantic horsetrading.

Senior figures in the left-green New Popular Front (NFP) alliance - including Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of Unbowed France (LFI) - have already pledged that in all constituencies where RN finished first and the NFP candidate third, the NFP candidate would withdraw.

Emmanuel Macron’s camp, however, has so far been far less clear about what it would do in the same situation, promising only to examine each constituency on its merits.

The president’s coalition could yet decide not to stand its candidates down if they are faced with a candidate from LFI rather than one of the other three NFP members.

The socialist party’s Olivier Faure said this evening that “for the first time since the Second World War, the far right could govern the country.”

“We must block the RN in the second round,” he said.

The far-right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella is speaking now, calling on voters to remain mobilised for next Sunday’s second round.

The choice is clear, he said, calling the far-left dangerous.

Next Sunday, if his camp wins an absolute majority, Bardella said he would be a prime minister who focuses on purchasing power, restoring order and migration policy.

It’s a historic choice, he said, arguing that victory is possible next Sunday.

Let’s be mobilised for change, he added.

Updated

Place Publique is calling for different groups to come together to defeat the far right, by withdrawing candidates in third place in three-way races in the second round.

“The far right is at the gates of power.”

Updated

Left will withdraw third-place candidates to help defeat far-right, Mélenchon says

Today’s vote is a defeat for the president’s camp, the hard-left France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon said.

The New Popular Front is the sole alternative, he said.

He also said that in cases where there is a three-way race in the second round, and that the left is in third place, they would withdraw their candidates to oppose the far right.

Updated

Éric Coquerel, a candidate for the left-wing New Popular Front, said on BFMTV that Gabriel Attal won’t be the next prime minister. He the second round will be between the project of the National Rally and the New Popular Front.

Marine Le Pen calls on supporters to mobilise for second round

Speaking to supporters just after the first estimates were published, the far-right’s Marine Le Pen said democracy has spoken and said that citizens have shown they want to turn the page.

But she also stressed the importance of the second round next week.

There’s a need for an absolute majority so that Jordan Bardella can become prime minister, she said. No French person will lose rights, she argued, calling for supporters to mobilise.

Updated

The far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen will soon address supporters after first estimates put her party in the lead.

First estimate puts far-right National Rally in lead

With polls now closed, first estimates have been published.

Note that these numbers should be treated with caution: while these figures show broad election dynamics, they do not necessarily reflect the final outcome given that there are 577 constituency votes – and a second round next weekend.

Here are the estimates from IFOP:

Far right National Rally: 34.2%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 21.5%

Here are the estimates conducted for BFMTV:

Far right National Rally: 33%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%

Updated

IFOP estimates that the final turnout will stand at 69%.

Here’s how that compares with previous elections.

Updated

French parliamentary elections – what to look out for and when

Our Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis, has written a useful guide for what to expect this evening.

Estimations at 8pm CET will project the national vote share of parties. But this figure must be taken with caution. It will show the broad dynamic of support for each party across France, but it does not indicate the shape of a future parliament because the 577 different constituency votes will be defined by local context and candidates.

Polls have shown that, in terms of overall national vote share, the far-right National Rally could substantially increase its showing from the last parliament election, when it took just over 18%, to about 35%. The left alliance has been predicted to follow on about 27% and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists behind on about 21%.

Read the full guide here.

High turnout for France's first election round

Turnout has been much higher today than during France’s last legislative election in 2022.

At 5pm local time, turnout stood at 59.39%, compared with merely 39.4% at that time in the 2022 election.

Updated

'Cliffhanger at the end of each episode': Macron's grouping struggles for survival

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping was fighting for survival this weekend before the first round of France’s high-stakes snap election, which could lead to the far-right National Rally (RN) becoming the biggest force in parliament.

Macron, who warned last week that France risked “civil war” if Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration RN, or the leftwing New Popular Front coalition, came to power, said at the European summit in Brussels that “uninhibited racism and antisemitism” had been unleashed in France.

But his strategy of stoking a climate of fear, in which his centrists are presented as the only rational force to hold back the breakdown of French society, is seen as backfiring.

Antoine Bristielle, the director of opinion at the Fondation Jean-Jaurès thinktank, said that since Macron called the election, France’s political future was extremely difficult to read. “Macron is more and more unpredictable,” he said. “It’s as if he’s running the country like he’s in a Netflix series – and has to put a cliffhanger at the end of each episode.”

Read the full story here.

Updated

The last polls are scheduled to close at 8pm local time.

Here are some images from election day in France.

Who is Jordan Bardella?

Jordan Bardella, a 28-year old member of the European parliament, is the far-right National Rally’s candidate for prime minister.

He has one of the biggest TikTok followings in French politics and never says no to a selfie with teenage fans.

The son of Italians who arrived in the 1960s, Bardella is presented as a “good immigrant” who embraced French culture and civilisation, which he now warns is under threat from what he calls Islamist ideology.

He has taken a deliberately humble tone with voters, part of a strategy to deliver the final phase of Marine Le Pen’s decade-long drive to soften the far-right party’s image.

Bardella does not seek to dilute the party’s hardline anti-immigration message, which has not changed since the 1970s; instead he wants to make it respectable and fully mainstream ahead of Le Pen’s fourth attempt at the presidency in 2027.

Read more here.

What do the polls say?

The last IFOP poll before the first round of the French election, published Friday, put the far-right National Rally at 36.5% and the left-wing New Popular Front at 29%.

The same poll found that the far-right would take between 225 and 265 seats in the 577-seat national assembly – falling short of the 289 required for a majority - while the New Popular Front would take 170-200.

Nevertheless, some other polls put the far-right in a stronger position, predicting that it could even win a majority of seats.

A poll conducted for BFMTV put the far-right at between 260 and 295 seats.

Welcome to the blog

Good evening and welcome to the French election blog.

Citizens across France went to the polls today for the first round of a snap legislative election unexpectedly called by Emmanuel Macron after his allies performed poorly in the European elections on 9 June, while the far-right won the most votes.

The election is widely seen as a gamble from the French president, who is facing a presidential election in 2027. But polls ahead of today’s election also put the far-right in the lead, with Macron’s allies trailing behind in third place.

A second round is scheduled for next Sunday, 7 July.

Stay tuned and send your comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.

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