It’s that time of year when selecting your Fantasy Premier League side is at the front and centre of your thoughts.
Perhaps you were efficient and constructed your team the moment the game began last month and are just doing last-minute tweaks, or maybe you’re the type to throw your squad together at 6.15pm on Friday, just in time for the first match of the season (don’t be that person, by the way).
One of the biggest decisions you’ll have to make this season is whether or not to splash out £15.0m on Erling Haaland. The Manchester City forward has set the record for the most expensive player in FPL history this summer, up £1.0m from last season and more expensive than the likes of FPL icons Thierry Henry, Robin van Persie and Cristiano Ronaldo ever were.
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The Norwegian was easily the most-picked player in the game last year with 73 per cent ownership and plundered 217 points last season, which was significantly down from his 272-point haul in the 2022/23 campaign.
But has this price bump made him too expensive? Could you spend the money better elsewhere? FourFourTwo takes a look?
FPL tips: The case for Erling Haaland in Fantasy Premier League
Even at £15.0m, there are plenty of compelling reasons to pick the Leeds-born hitman.
Firstly… he’s Erling Haaland, isn’t he? Premier League fans have had two seasons of watching him week-in-week-out, when he has constantly scored goals, bagging the Golden Boots for the past two seasons.
His place in the Manchester City starting line-up is guaranteed, with the sale of Julian Alvarez to Atletico Madrid meaning he does not have another international striker nipping at his heels in search of first-team minutes.
The Argentine is the only key Manchester City departure this summer, meaning Haaland will have the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden doing their thing behind him, so you know the chances will continue to flow.
What’s more, Haaland remains City’s penalty taker, which ticks another FPL box and perhaps crucially has had the summer off to rest and recharge, which a lot of the Premier League’s other top-tier players have not had.
If you dig deeper into the underlying data you’ll see that Haaland underperformed his xG last season for the first time in the past five years, and unless you believe that the 24-year-old has already peaked, you’d expect him to at least revert to the mean, which would see him improve on last year’s points total.
Finally, it’s worth looking at City’s fixture list at the start of the season. The champions start away at Chelsea in a repeat of an August 3rd pre-season friendly between the two sides in the USA which saw Haaland bag a hat-trick amid another chaotic summer for the Stamford Bridge side, who currently don’t look like starting the season quickly. This is followed up by Ipswich (H), West Ham (A) and Brentford (H), all of which look to be favourable fixtures for Pep Guardiola’s side.
The case against Haaland
The only thing going against Haaland is his new, increased price and what you could do with the extra money.
There is a school of thought in the FPL community that midfield is where leagues are won and lost, so this is where you should invest the most. Mohamed Salah, who has also had the summer off, costs £2.5m less than Haaland, but only scored marginally fewer points per game than the Norwegian last season (7.0 points versus 6.59) and is likely to provide more assists.
The likes of Cole Palmer, Foden and Bukayo Saka all outscored Haaland last time out, so is it worth trying to pack as many big-name midfielders in your squad?
Snubbing Haaland can allow you to spread your funds across the squad and give you a more robust starting XI and bench and can give your team an early differential that could make all the difference come the end of the campaign.
Make your mind up time…
The decision, of course, is up to you dear reader. But it does feel like even with the price rise, all signs point to the City man being a must-pick, at least early in the season.
Haaland’s summer off, plus City’s early fixtures could see the 24-year-old begin the season in style and looks a safer option to build your team around than either new signings or players that were involved in the latter stages of Euro 2024 or Copa America.
Being ahead of the trends and zigging when other zag is a crucial part of a successful FPL team, but sometimes you need to do the obvious thing, and in this case, that’s investing in Haaland and giving him the captain’s armband.
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