Every single year on Selection Sunday as soon as the field is unveiled, the complaints begin over the work the selection committee did in putting together the bracket.
This team got underseeded while that team got overseeded. Why is one team getting shipped across the country while this one plays down the street? Why does the committee always seem to like the Duke Blue Devils?
While such questions are a constant this time of year, there’s little doubt some teams have better paths to the national championship than others. That’s especially true this season, where the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 all sent an oversized amount of teams to the Big Dance that forced some interesting decisions impacting the sub-regional matchups all the way through to potential Final Four combinations.
With that in mind, which men’s basketball team has the clearest path to cutting down the nets? After examining the bracket, these top seeds are a tad better off in what lies ahead as they chase the national title all the way to San Antonio.
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans, South Regional
You wouldn’t think landing in the No. 1 overall seed’s region would be a good thing, but the South is there for the taking by Tom Izzo’s squad. They’ll open against the America East champion Bryant Bulldogs, who are a No. 15 seed that won’t be as big of a pushover as some on that line but also won’t pose a real threat either. MSU then gets either a New Mexico Lobos team that faded considerably in Mountain West play down the stretch or a Marquette Golden Eagles side that is 5–7 in the past six weeks.
The Spartans also get lucky as the No. 3-seeded Iowa State Cyclones on their portion of the bracket are banged up and their best bet in the Sweet 16 is an Ole Miss Rebels squad who have just one win by more than four points since the end of January. Their No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers have a trickier path, but even if they meet in Atlanta, that’s not exactly a strange environment for Michigan State after it was in that building for the Champions Classic to start the season. This is Izzo’s best team in years, and they have the path to take advantage of it.
Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 4 seed Texas A&M Aggies, which have a difficult opening game against the Ivy League champs but have a real shot to make some noise if they can get to the second weekend. They’ve beaten Auburn in March already, have the defensive intensity to go on a run and just need to find a little consistency on offense to make a home state Final Four under Buzz Williams.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils, East Regional
In terms of the eye-opening names Jon Scheyer’s team will have to face, there is no shortage of them between the Alabama Crimson Tide looming as the No. 2 seed on the opposite end of the East to a juicy potential meeting with the Arizona Wildcats to open the second weekend. Including the Blue Devils, this quadrant features six top-20 offenses in the entire tournament, according to KenPom, and there could be a ton of up-and-down games that wind up being easy on the eyes.
The thing is, though, Duke is the lone elite defensive team in the East outside of the St. Mary’s Gaels and they wouldn’t meet until the Elite Eight. Bama is also dealing with Grant Nelson’s injury, and Arizona has not lived up to expectations yet in March for a decade. Plus, if the team ends up making it to San Antonio, it won’t face two of the other top threats to win it all from the SEC in the Auburn Tigers or Florida Gators until the final. If Cooper Flagg gets healthy, Duke should cruise.
Lower seed to keep an eye on: The No. 6 BYU Cougars have been playing extremely well the past few weeks and have the size and shotmaking to be a threat to anybody on their side of the bracket. If Flagg is not 100% and they reach the Elite Eight, it wouldn’t be crazy for the Cougs to aim even further before their own No. 1 overall player arrives on campus.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers, Midwest Regional
Rick Barnes has gotten the hopes up of a lot of folks, but this may finally be the year to realize some. The Vols have one of the elite defenses in the country and are quite battle-tested in the SEC to the point where they could have been on the top-seed line. They have a pair of back-sliding West Coast teams coming to Lexington, Ky., and then will either face a Kentucky Wildcats team that has their number but is dealing with injuries, or an Illinois Fighting Illini program which has been either red hot or stone cold based on the whims of that particular night. Tennessee is better than any of them and would have the offensive advantage with its size on the interior if its winds up playing the Houston Cougars, too.
Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 6 Illinois is a Final Four–caliber team when healthy. The problem is the Illini really haven’t been this season, though they are getting closer to that when they finished the Big Ten regular season strong. If the shots are falling, this group can keep up with anyone—they notably played Tennessee to a two-point game on the road back in December.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, West Regional
Grant McCasland’s squad is a real threat out of the West and has things set up quite nicely to make a long run in the Big Dance to potentially be the last Big 12 team standing. Its first-round matchup should be no issue, and it is more than capable of outplaying either the Missouri Tigers or Drake Bulldogs to advance from there. The Red Raiders offense coming up against the St. John’s Red Storm, KenPom’s No. 1 adjusted efficiency defense, would be a fun matchup in San Francisco, but Tech still might have the overall edge given how clunky Rick Pitino’s offense can get at times. They would have a challenge going up against the Florida Gators, but if there’s anybody who can run with Todd Golden’s team, it’s probably this one to offer up a chance to make it to a Final Four in the great state of Texas.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Four Teams With Clearest Path to the Men’s Final Four.
