CheckMate is a weekly newsletter from RMIT FactLab recapping the latest in the world of fact checking and misinformation. It draws on the work of FactLab's researchers and journalists, including its CrossCheck unit, and of its sister organisation, RMIT ABC Fact Check.
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CheckMate May 12, 2023
This week, we tackle a claim by United Australia Party national director Craig Kelly that the national medicines regulator has finally come around to the drug ivermectin.
We also round up the key claims from Tuesday's federal budget, and look at how social media users reckon Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews's digital drivers licence plan is a car wreck.
Did the TGA really 'surrender' on ivermectin?
News from Australia's medicines regulator has sparked a flurry of social media activity after it announced it would lift an almost two-year ban on the "off-label" use of the drug ivermectin.
The antiparasitic drug has long been a favourite for treating COVID-19 among conspiracy groups, anti-vaxxers and others, despite a lack of evidence in support of its effectiveness against the disease.
In 2021, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) announced that most doctors could no longer prescribe ivermectin for anything other than the treatment of TGA-approved conditions, citing concerns that people were taking the drug in lieu of vaccination against COVID-19 and in higher doses than recommended.
It also pointed to "national and local shortages for those who need the medicine for scabies and parasite infections", which it blamed on a rise in "prescribing and dispensing for unapproved uses" during the pandemic.
On Twitter, the ban's demise was met with enthusiasm by United Australia Party national director Craig Kelly, who in February 2021 resigned from the Liberal Party in order to advocate for unproven COVID-19 treatments, among them ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.
"IT'S OVER: THE TGA HAVE SURRENDERED ON IVERMECTIN," he wrote in a tweet that called for "war crime trials and reparations".
"For as I repeatedly said, the TGA couldn't hold out forever, as their senior management were risking being personally sued for malfeasance given the tsunami of evidence rolling in, showing that ivermectin is highly effective against COVID."
Mr Kelly linked the announcement to another tweet from the previous day — in which he declared that a new study showed the drug had "won" — before claiming that "thousands of Australians … died unnecessarily from COVID because the TGA denied them access to this life saving ivermectin".
So, what did the TGA actually say?
According to its announcement, the TGA decided to drop its ban because of "sufficient evidence that the safety risks to individuals and public health is low when [ivermectin is] prescribed by a general practitioner in the current health climate".
That evidence includes higher rates of vaccination or hybrid immunity against COVID-19, "awareness of medical practitioners about the risks and benefits of ivermectin, and the low potential for any shortages of ivermectin for its approved uses".
In the TGA's final decision, which lays out the regulator's reasoning in more detail, its reviewer explained:
"There is now an overwhelming weight of evidence against the use of ivermectin in patients either as a prophylaxis or as a treatment of patients with COVID-19 with no benefit in large clinical studies."
This, they said, meant doctors were now well informed of ivermectin's risks to patients and its "lack of efficacy" in treating or preventing COVID-19, allowing practitioners to "exercise sound judgement" when considering such off-label use.
The regulator's announcement explicitly states that "the TGA does not endorse off-label prescribing of ivermectin for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19".
It also points to advice from the National Clinical Evidence Taskforce, an Australian group of independent clinical experts, which, having reviewed 17 randomised controlled trials, "strongly advises against the use of ivermectin for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19".
The last time this newsletter looked at ivermectin's effectiveness against COVID-19, a meta-analysis of 11 randomised controlled trials by the Cochrane Collaboration (a highly regarded scientific research network) had found the drug appeared to offer "no beneficial effect" to people with mild or no symptoms.
For those with more severe symptoms, the reviewers said there was "low certainty evidence" it did not help patients to get better, whereas they were "uncertain whether ivermectin prevents death or clinical worsening".
CheckMate has not reviewed the "large randomised double-blind, placebo controlled study" (into ivermectin and COVID-19 prevention) referred to by Mr Kelly in his earlier tweet, as this has not yet been peer reviewed.
Notably, this is not the first time a member of Mr Kelly's party has misrepresented the lifting of a drug ban.
In 2022, UAP chairman Clive Palmer used a speech to claim that Queensland's chief health officer had lifted a ban on hydroxychloroquine in response to data showing its effectiveness against COVID-19, when in fact it was due to the easing of "supply concerns".
Dan Andrews's licence to … spread conspiracy theories?
An announcement from Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews that drivers in the state will soon be able to obtain a digital drivers licence has been met online with conspiracy theories invoking misunderstood urban planning concepts and accusations of covert government tracking.
Taking to social media on Monday morning, the premier announced that the new licences would be rolled out to residents of Ballarat under a pilot program before becoming available statewide in 2024.
"Full licence holders will be able to use it as a digital licence, as well as proof of age in venues," Mr Andrews announced on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Similar digital licences have been available in South Australia since 2017 and across NSW since 2019, and are also set to be rolled out in Queensland this year.
According to a press release detailing the Victorian government's plans, drivers will be able to opt in to digital licences, which will be accessible via the Services Victoria or VicRoads apps.
"Drivers will still have the option to use their physical licence," the release states.
But while many people responded positively to the announcement (or, in some cases, suggested the move was well overdue), others were quick to claim the premier had sinister intentions.
"Let me guess," one Twitter user wrote, "[the digital licences] will be linked to a social credit score and other metrics, and eventually be required for access to certain roads and facilities?"
Another tweeter suggested the move was "yet another step towards 15-minute cities", a sentiment which was shared on Facebook by a user who stated: "Phones should be phones not government tracking and scanning devises [sic]!!! Start of smart city agenda!!!"
Others said the move would bring with it security risks, with one sarcastic tweet reading: "Let's hold all the identities of Australian citizens in one central location, brilliant idea!"
None of those claims, however, appears to be based in fact.
When it comes to "social credit scores", RMIT FactLab has previously found that no such system exists in Australia, nor is there any evidence to suggest the digital licences would be used to limit people's movement.
As for "Smart Cities" and "15-minute cities" (which are different concepts), conspiracy theorists often use the terms interchangeably to allege governments are planning to exert excessive control over citizens with the help of increased surveillance.
In reality, the 15-minute city is an urban planning concept in which amenities — for example, schools, shops, parks and healthcare — are within a 15-minute walk for residents.
Unsurprisingly, given that 15-minute cities are aimed at reducing car-reliance, there's no evidence that digital drivers licences have anything to do with the concept.
Smart Cities, on the other hand, is a broad term for the technology used in cities and towns for a number of purposes, from checking for vacant car parks to providing free public Wi-Fi.
While digital licences fit this mould, there is nothing to suggest the new form of identification will result in increased surveillance.
Meanwhile, despite it not being unreasonable for social media users to raise concerns about data storage and safety, some appear to have forgotten that drivers licence data is already collected and stored by the Victorian government's Department of Transport and Planning, as well as by the federal government.
In any case, as with other states that have already rolled out the technology, digital licences in Victoria will not be mandatory.
Fact checking Labor's budget speech
As Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down Tuesday night's federal budget against a backdrop of rising living costs, RMIT ABC Fact Check ran the rule over the key claims made during his speech.
So, how did they stack up?
On wages
First up were wages, which Mr Chalmers claimed were "now growing at their fastest rate since 2012".
Certainly, the figures bear this out for nominal wages, with a 4 per cent rise forecast for next year. However, those for real wages — that is, after adjusting for inflation — paint a less rosy picture.
Following a 2.25 per cent fall this year, real wages are tipped to grow by 0.75 per cent in the year to June 2024, which is not so different to growth recorded under the Coalition (in 2015, 2016 and 2019).
On jobs
Next, Mr Chalmers said he was "proud" that 339,000 jobs had been created since Labor was elected which, while correct, doesn't necessarily mean his government is responsible for actually creating them.
As one expert previously told Fact Check, it was "bordering on laughable" for governments to take credit for jobs creation, "but the reason it's not laughable is that they say it all the time and everyone accepts it and it really doesn't raise any eyebrows".
On the jobless
Meanwhile, Mr Chalmers' claim that unemployment was at "historic lows" was also broadly correct, Fact Check found, explaining that while official unemployment was lower in the 1960s and 1970s, it was now at its lowest level since the ABS began publishing monthly labour force figures in 1978, almost half a century ago.
On welfare payments
Among the government's budget announcements was a 15 per cent boost to the Commonwealth Rent Assistance rate, which the treasurer claimed amounted to "the largest increase in more than 30 years".
Indeed, social services data dating back to 1990 shows that this payment has been increased above inflation only three times in as many decades, and never by as much as 15 per cent (the next largest rise, in 2000, equalled 5 per cent).
When it came to recipients of the single parenting payment — who are set to benefit from broader eligibility criteria that will allow them to claim payments for longer — Mr Chalmers was correct in saying that "over 90 per cent of these parents are single mums".
The latest figures show that, of the payment's 230,520 recipients, some 96 per cent (220,175) were women.
On debt
The Treasurer was on less solid ground in the lead-up to budget night, however, when he claimed that the Albanese government had inherited a trillion dollars of "Liberal debt", of which only a "tiny fraction" could be blamed on his Labor predecessors.
Fact Check found that claim to be "spin", explaining that while most of the debt Labor inherited was accrued during the Coalition's term, a sizeable chunk was racked up by the previous Labor government, whose share amounted to either 25 per cent or 31 per cent of the total (depending on the measure used).
Edited by Ellen McCutchan and David Campbell
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