An article published by an Australian think tank is calling on Canberra to back out of the controversial Aukus submarine deal – which annulled a contract to buy French nuclear submarines in favour of UK-manufactured ones.
According retired Australian navy admiral Peter Briggs, the Aukus submarine plan is flawed, and the only chance Australia has to sustain its submarine fleet is to buy French vessels after all.
"The solution being pursued under the current Aukus plan is not going to work," said Briggs, former head of the Submarine Institute of Australia.
In the article published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), he paints a bleak future for Australia's submarine fleet.
The Australian navy's six current Collins-class conventional submarines – which are Australian-built – are to be replaced by eight nuclear attack submarines (Submersible Ship Nuclear or SSNs) of the United States-made SSN Virginia and the SSN Aukus class.
The latter will be jointly made by Britain's BAE Systems and Australia's ASC.
The plan is part of the Aukus alliance hammered out in 2021 between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US.
Pending construction of the new fleet, UK and US nuclear subs will increase their visits to Australia.
"The reality is that the US is unable to build enough submarines," Briggs told RFI.
He added that, given that Australia is a 'three ocean continent" it needs 12 submarines in order to properly defend itself, rather than the eight specified under the Aukus agreement.
France could build submarines for Australia, after all
No submarines available
In September 2023, the US Congress introduced the "Aukus Undersea Defense Act" providing "for the transfer of not more than two Virginia class submarines" to Australia.
In December, Congress confirmed this in its 2024 National Defense Authorization Act.
But according to Briggs, the US won't be able to sell these subs. "The US are 17 short of submarines now. They haven't ordered any extra to provide a surplus to allow the sale of some of their older submarines to us. So, the Virginias won't be available for sale. And our submarine capability will die with the Collins class".
On top of that, Briggs says, the projected SSN Aukus is "too big, too expensive". Manning an SSN Aukus requires some 130 people. "We cannot afford to operate 12 of these large submarines, which is the minimum we need for an effective deterrent".
His solution? Go back to the French, who were left high and dry by the Aukus deal.
We are heading on the current plan for a flawed conclusion.
INTERVIEW Peter Briggs OK
France snubbed
In 2016, the Australian government and the French naval defence company Naval Group – which is majority state-owned – signed a €34 billion contract for the supply of 12 conventional Barracuda submarines, beating Japanese and German competition to the deal.
French commentators hailed it as "the contract of the century," which would provide thousands of jobs in France alone.
But in 2021, Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that he was terminating the contract, without notice – and that the US and the UK would supply the submarines instead, under the Aukus alliance.
His argument was that Australia would be better served by eight nuclear-powered submarines than the 12 conventional vessels ordered from the French.
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Room for manoeuvre
"The idea was cooked up by a very small team in Australia, not the normal defence process looking at requirements and how you might solve it," says Briggs. "The prime minister of the day, Mr. Morrison, got it wrong. There was never a chance that it was going to work."
He believes that Canberra should renege on the Aukus submarine plan, saying: "It remains in both countries' interests to reverse and overcome the issues of the past and get on and build additional Barracuda/Suffren-class submarines for Australia."
There may yet be room for manoeuvre for French and Australian policy makers.
In a meeting with current Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in July 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron – who was furious over the collapse of the previous deal – reportedly offered to supply Australia with four submarines.
Meanwhile, the Australian government agreed to pay €550 million in a settlement with Naval Group over the decision to scrap the French attack class submarine project.
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Paris - Canberra ties renewed
In September 2022, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles then travelled to France and met with France's Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu.
“[The] ministers [are] committed to developing projects that will further enable the French-Australian defence relationship,” Defence Australia said in a statement on the visit.
By December 2023, Canberra and Paris appeared to have buried the hatchet entirely, cutting a deal to grant reciprocal access to military bases, training facilities and increase intelligence sharing, with Australia given "enhanced" access to France's defence facilities in the Indo-Pacific region.
For Briggs, Australia needs to capitalise on this renewal of friendly relations in order to procure the subs it needs.
"We now need some political fortitude and courage on both sides to move past the bad decisions of the past and produce a winning project for France and Australia".
