Brazil's pollsters got it wrong, very wrong. Not only did far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro rob left-wing predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of a first-round knockout, he can also boast upset wins for key allies in gubernatorial and congressional races. Next up is the October 30 presidential run-off, where Lula still boasts a sizeable five-point lead, but where the momentum undoubtedly is with his rival.
It's a whole new race. Yes, the faces are familiar but since Lula's heyday, when this emerging giant roared and commodity exports boomed, Brazil has been battered by corruption, Covid and culture wars amplified by social media. Bolsonaro is taking a leaf out of the Trump playbook by methodically laying the groundwork for confrontation with unsubstantiated allegations of fraud. Could Brazil experience its own January 6 moment?
How will the Americas' second-largest democracy handle the result, whoever wins? And what's next for a nation and a continent bitterly divided over the economy, minority rights, religion, the role of the military and the future of the Amazon rainforest?
