Marise Payne is expected to fly to Paris next month for a key meeting between European and Indo-Pacific foreign ministers, potentially offering the government a chance to begin repairing the relationship with France in the wake of the acrimonious dispute over submarines.
The French government has invited a host of foreign ministers from across Asia, the Pacific and East Africa to its capital on February 22 for a meeting with their European counterparts and top European Union officials.
France and the European Union have released few details about the meeting, but European leaders have signalled they want to build greater "strategic autonomy" and ramp up investment in the Indo-Pacific, partly as a counterweight to China.
Neither the United States nor China have been invited.
Last year, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian accused Beijing of trying to maintain a "facade of multilateralism" while engaging in "asymmetric" contests with smaller states in the region and declared that France and Europe had to work on "alternative model" of engagement with countries.
Meeting offers chance to restore relations
Senator Payne's office has confirmed that she has been invited to the Paris meeting.
The Foreign Minister has not yet said if she will attend, but close observers say it is very likely she will, given the significance of the meeting and the opportunities it offers.
"We welcome the invitation from France and the European Union to attend the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in February," a spokesman for the Foreign Minister told the ABC.
The visit, if confirmed, will come on the heels of a meeting of Quad foreign ministers in Melbourne in mid-February.
Senator Payne will host US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and India’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar for talks on a raft of issues ranging from cyber security, infrastructure, China, vaccine distribution, regional security and Russia’s threats to Ukraine.
She said the meeting was a "further demonstration of the Morrison government’s efforts to actively shape and influence our region and world by deepening partnerships at a time of strategic competition, threats to liberal international order and increasing uncertainty".
Restoring the relationship with France will be a more difficult and fraught task.
Ties between Paris and Canberra remain deeply strained in the wake of the federal government's decision to dump the multi-billion-dollar submarine contract with French company Naval Group and embrace a plan to build nuclear-powered submarines with US and UK technology under the AUKUS pact.
Paris withdrew its ambassador to Canberra after the announcement and several ministers berated Australia, with Mr Le Drian accusing Australia of a "stabbing (France) in the back".
French officials also said trust between the two countries had been "shattered" because Australia had deliberately hidden the nuclear submarine plan from them.
French cold shoulder
The dispute escalated further when French President Emmanuel Macron declared that Prime Minister Scott Morrison had lied to him about the submarine contract.
That angered Australian ministers in turn, who said Mr Macron's personal attacks were deeply inappropriate and insisted the French President knew that Australia was considering alternatives to the French submarines.
Neither Australian or French government sources are arguing the invitation signals an imminent thaw in the relationship.
While France has stopped publicly criticising Australia, there have been no public signs of reconciliation and both sides predict it will take time for the relationship to improve.
'Major shift' in ties unlikely until elections
Analysts also say there's unlikely to be a major shift until after the French presidential elections in April and Australia's federal election, which is expected in May.
But the trip could nonetheless offer Senator Payne a useful opportunity to meet senior French officials or ministers for the first time since the bitter fallout over submarines and begin the processing of rebuilding the relationship.
Dr Eglantine Staunton, who lectures at the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University, said while the invitation shouldn't be over-interpreted, it was still an "encouraging" sign for Australia.
"Some major powers, namely China and the US, have not been invited and there was no guarantee Australia would get an invitation. So it's a sign that, despite the submarine controversy, France still remains open to cooperation with Australia," she said.
In November, French ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault said Australia had to explain what concrete steps it would take to repair ties, but the federal government seems confident they will eventually recover simply because of converging interests and the weight of strategic logic.
On the weekend, the federal government announced it would seek to join a European Union action against China at the World Trade Organization after Beijing hit Lithuania with sweeping trade punishments.
China's government has downgraded its relationship with the Baltic nation and is trying to isolate it economically after Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open an embassy in the capital Vilnius.
France an 'important partner' for Australia
Australian officials have also pointed to the way Australia, New Zealand and France worked together to coordinate aid efforts for Tonga after the Pacific Island nation was hit by a volcanic eruption and tsunami earlier this month.
Senator Payne's spokesman stressed that France remained "an important partner" for Australia and singled out "our ongoing HADR (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief) cooperation in providing support to Tonga" as evidence.
But Dr Staunton said that while the two countries would eventually "move past" the submarine dispute, the relationship would only return to full strength if Australia made tangible concessions.
She suggested Australia could mend fences by committing to fresh defence contracts with French military companies, or by expressing regret – much like US President Joe Biden did – for the way the AUKUS announcement was handled.
The controversy over the submarine contract also saw the 12th round of free trade talks between Australia and the European Union, due to take place in October, pushed back until February this year.
But the federal government expects they will now go ahead as planned.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could visit Australia as part of a broader regional trip next month, despite facing the intense domestic political scandal over the "lockdown parties" at Downing Street, as well as ongoing uncertainty over a possible Russian invasion in Ukraine.
Japanese officials have briefed the media that Mr Johnson might also visit Tokyo in February.
ABC
