Forecasting the Top 100 NFL Players This Season: And No. 1 Is …

More of the Projected Top 100: Nos. 100-81 | Nos. 80-61 | Nos. 60-41 | Nos. 40-21

The NFL’s top 100 players. Not a new concept. We’ve seen the lists and how they change annually based on the ensuing performances.

But here at The MMQB, we have added a new spin. Throughout the week, we have forecasted how the top 100 will look after the 2023 season. Which players will rise and become stars, or grow into superstardom? Which players will begin declining either because of age or because of their situation?

We have unveiled a majority of the list so far, and Nos. 20-1 will be our final installation of the rankings. At the midseason point, we’ll update and evaluate our list before a final review after the Super Bowl in Las Vegas.

In the meantime, we see at least one member of each team making the list, while the 49ers and Eagles are the most represented with eight and seven players, respectively. Conversely, the Cardinals, Panthers, Bears, Packers, Vikings and Buccaneers have one apiece.

All told, 12 quarterbacks made our list, while Matthew Stafford and Bryce Young were the first two missing the cut. Lastly, 54 AFC players made the list, with 46 from the NFC.

It wasn’t an easy task, but we have our top 100 based on how the players are about to perform, not only on what they’ve already accomplished. Here are the final 20: 

20

Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets

Williams will now play alongside the four-time MVP quarterback he used to sack. 

Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

It took longer than expected, but Williams reached his potential with a breakout 2022 season. Williams, a ’19 No. 3 pick, had career highs in sacks (12) and quarterback hits (28).

19

Trent Williams, LT, San Francisco 49ers

Williams received a 93.0 grade from PFF in 2022.

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Williams is almost certainly a first-ballot Hall of Famer, who needs only a Super Bowl to complete his résumé. The Niners have the best left tackle in football who, despite being 35 years old, remains the gold standard. A 10-time Pro Bowler, Williams might be the best player on the league’s best roster.

18

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence has been steady for the Jaguars, playing in all 17 regular season games in both of his two seasons in the league. 

Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

Lawrence entered the conversation last season for being a top-10 quarterback, but his trajectory won’t stop there as a precise pocket passer with enough mobility to move the chains when needed. He threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions to earn his first Pro Bowl selection. 

17

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Hill has totaled over 1,000 receiving yarsd in five of his last six seasons in the league.

Julio Cortez/AP Photo

Hill has made the Pro Bowl in each of his seven NFL seasons across Kansas City and Miami, while earning first-team All-Pro honors four times. Flanked by Jaylen Waddle, Hill is almost impossible to stop, ranking second last year in catches (119) and yards (1,710) behind Jefferson.

16

Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

Jones has racked up over $1 million in mandatory fines due to his training camp abscene.

Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

In his seventh season, Jones might have done his best work with 15.5 sacks, helping the Chiefs win the Super Bowl on the defensive interior. For his efforts, Pro Football Focus gave Jones a 92.3 grade, the highest among interior defensive linemen in 2022. However, the question is how much Jones will suffer from missing OTAs, minicamp and training camp while holding out.

15

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is Sports Illustrated’s 2023 NFL preview cover star.

Patrick Breen/The Arizona Republic/USA TODAY Network

Don’t worry about a down year for Hurts, who outplayed Mahomes in the Super Bowl. The fourth-year quarterback is only ascending (3,701 yards passing, 22 TDs, 13 rushing TDs), finishing second in the MVP voting last year behind Mahomes. Surrounded by arguably the best supporting cast in football, Hurts should only improve off a season in which he earned second-team All-Pro honors.

14

Myles Garrett, edge, Cleveland Browns

The Browns recently reworked Garrett’s five-year extension to make cap space for the team.

Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports

Garrett’s elite athleticism has made him one of the game’s best sack artists, recording 10 or more sacks each of the past five seasons. The two-time first-team All-Pro has had at least 16 sacks and 26 quarterback hits the past two seasons.

13

 Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Chase averaged 12 and 18 yards per receptions in his past two years in the league.

Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

Chase has an argument as the best receiver in football outside of Jefferson. We believe he’ll eclipse Tyreek Hill this year, playing in Cincinnati’s dynamic offense, spearheaded by Burrow. After two Pro Bowl seasons (168/2,501/29), this could be Chase’s first All-Pro nod.

12

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce led the Chiefs’ pass catchers in targets, yards and touchdowns in 2022.

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Kelce is heading into his age-34 season, but he showed no signs of regressing after another dominant All-Pro season in 2022 (110 receptions, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs). Kelce, who’s regarded as one of the greatest pass-catching tight ends of all time, has seven consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards. 

11

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert and the Chargers agreed to a five-year, $262.5 million extension in July.

Ed Zurga/AP Photo

Herbert has a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, who should open up the offense to allow him to throw more intermediate and deep routes. Despite his prior limitations, Herbert threw for 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2022, leading the Chargers to the postseason.

10

Patrick Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos

Surtain started all but one game in his rookie season, and all 17 regular season games in 2023.

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Surtain’s breakout season earned him his first Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro selections. Most importantly, he’s now recognized as an elite shutdown corner. Surtain, who has six career interceptions, might be the only cornerback who can compare to Gardner.

9

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Allen is expected to be among the Bills starters who will play on Saturday in their final preseason game.

Jamie Germano/USA Today Sports Network

Allen is a two-time Pro Bowler coming off what many perceived as a down season with 14 interceptions while throwing for 35 touchdowns and 4,283 yards. Expect another top-tier campaign from one of the game’s brightest stars.

8

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

Donald has never earned a PFF grade below 90.0 over a full season.

Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network

Expect Donald to return to his dominant ways (five consecutive double-digit-sack seasons from 2017 to ’21) after having his ’22 season (five sacks) cut short due to injury. A handful of impressive interior defensive linemen closed the gap on Donald last season, but none command as much attention as Donald does when it comes to blocks. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year often breaks free because of his elite strength and athleticism.

7

T.J. Watt, edge, Pittsburgh Steelers

Watt is a five-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All Pro player.

Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports

Don’t let Watt’s injury-shortened 2022 season fool you—he remains a dominant game wrecker. It wasn’t that long ago when he had 22.5 sacks during the ’21 season to capture the Defensive Player of the Year award. Watt’s 77.5 career sacks since he entered the league in ’17 are the most by any player in that span.

6

Micah Parsons, edge, Dallas Cowboys

Parsons has totaled over 25 QB hits in each of his two seasons.

Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

Parsons hasn’t looked back since the Cowboys made him an emergency edge rusher during the second game of his career in 2021. He’s now a two-time first-team All-Pro and is transitioning into being a full-time edge rusher this season, which could mean more sacks. In two seasons, Parsons has 26.5 career sacks.

5

Sauce Gardner, CB, New York Jets

Gardner was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2022.

Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

Gardner made first-team All-Pro as a rookie and is widely regarded as the best corner in football. Playing for a defensive-minded coach in Robert Saleh, Gardner should only continue ascending for Gang Green.

4

Nick Bosa, edge, San Francisco 49ers

Bosa could become the highest-paid defensive player in the league if he and the 49ers can get a deal done.

Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year recorded career highs in sacks (18.5) and quarterback hits (48) last season. He’s a nightmare for opposing offenses to contain, but he’s also been vital for the 49ers’ successful run. It’s no coincidence they’ve made the NFC title game three of the past four seasons with a healthy Bosa. For the 49ers to get over the Super Bowl hump, they’ll need to pay Bosa or come to a resolution in order for him to report to the team and end his contract holdout.

3

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson has steadily increased his receiving yard total by about 200 each season.

Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports

Jefferson is already a two-time first-team All-Pro and the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. He also led the league in receptions (128) and receiving yardage (1,809) last year, and is a good bet to be the first receiver in history with 2,000 yards in a campaign.

2

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow holds the Bengals’ single-season records for pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and passer rating.

Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports

Burrow might be the only quarterback who is on Mahomes’s level with how he’s played the past two seasons, guiding the Bengals to two consecutive AFC title games and a Super Bowl appearance. Burrow, who’s known for his pinpoint accuracy (68.2 career completion percentage), might hoist his first Lombardi Trophy with a stacked Bengals squad this season. But first he’ll need to return to full health after sustaining a calf injury in training camp. 

1

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Mahomes throws for 29 touchdown passes this season, he will have the record for the most in a player’s first seven seasons. (Last year, he threw for 41 in the regular season).

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Mahomes has won two NFL MVPs, two Super Bowl MVPs and two titles. Only Joe Montana, Tom Brady and Mahomes have accomplished that trifecta. Mahomes is 27 years old. He tops our list.