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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Christian D'Andrea

Forecasting one big free agent signing for all 32 NFL teams in 2023

The NFL offseason officially started once the final whistle blew on Super Bowl 57. But it doesn’t really begin until March 13.

That’s when all 32 teams, after a month of cuts, contract restructuring and franchise tags, take a look at their rosters and their balance sheets and start dialing up free agents. The 13th marks the day where social media and talk radio are swarmed with reports of big money agreements between Pro Bowl staples and needy clubs. Hundreds of millions of dollars in contract value will be handed out in the first 24 hours alone as general managers chart their course to Super Bowl 58.

We don’t know exactly what that will look like, but thanks to this year’s pool of available players, current salary cap breakdowns and each team’s needs we’ve got a vague outline of what it might be. The Bears have a ton of money to spend and need help everywhere. The Buccaneers only have the latter half of that sentence. And on it goes.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at each team’s free agency priorities and cash at hand and find one available veteran who makes sense as a key addition this spring. All salary cap numbers come from the extremely helpful Over The Cap.

Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Brandon Graham

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, CB, DT, OL, WR

Cap space: $15,803,694

Graham will turn 35 years old next season, but the Cardinals badly need passing rushing muscle and their 2022 sack leader, JJ Watt, was an inspirational story of how a veteran defender can make an impact in Arizona. In this case, he gets to reunite with former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon — the guy who freed him up for 11 sacks last season in Philadelphia.

Atlanta Falcons: OG Isaac Seumalo

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: QB, OT, EDGE, LB, DB

Cap space: $66,426,591

The Falcons have plenty of money to spend this offseason and holes to fill just about everywhere. Adding Seumalo would make Atlanta a more appealing destination for whichever quarterback they land on for 2023 — a space-clearing blocker who can keep pockets clean on create spacious running lanes for Tyler Allgeier and company.

Baltimore Ravens: WR Jakobi Meyers

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: WR, EDGE, DL, CB

Cap space: -$9,116,018

This move gets Lamar Jackson a badly needed reliable presence at wideout — assuming the former MVP stays in Baltimore — while taking away a capable starter from under Bill Belichick’s nose. The Ravens would still need a true top receiver on their depth chart, but getting anyone capable of providing 17 games of steady production would be a massive win for Jackson and company.

Buffalo Bills: OG Dalton Risner

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: DL, CB, S, OG

Cap space: -$19,184,694

Buffalo is strapped for cash and will have to search for bargains in hopes of making upgrades along the offensive line. Risner may fit the bill. The four-year starter in Denver could stand to refine his game, but at his core he’s an aggressive mauler who’d match the Bills’ intensity up front. It’s possible he’s too pricy to play with Josh Allen, but after starting his career watching the playoffs from afar with the Broncos he could opt for less money to play for a contender.

Carolina Panthers: DL Dre'Mont Jones

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: QB, RB, OL, EDGE, LB

Cap space: -$3,161,528

If D’Onta Foreman leaves in free agency there will be a solid crop of tailbacks to fill the void. Instead, let’s look at a defensive line that’s set to lose Matt Ioannidis and capable of upgrading from there. Jones isn’t a perfect fit as a 3-4 defensive end moving into what has been a 4-3 front, but he’s young, powerful, consistent and able to sew chaos to bring Brian Burns some much needed support attacking quarterbacks.

Chicago Bears: OT Orlando Brown Jr.

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: OL, WR, EDGE, DT, LB

Cap space: $94,660,261

The Bears have more cap space than anyone and can make a massive splash this offseason. Signing a 26-year-old four-time Pro Bowler to fill one of their biggest needs would qualify. Brown wasn’t franchise tagged this March, which creates the potential for him to leave Kansas City. That’s still not exactly likely, but Chicago can send him boatloads of cash in hopes of prying Zeus Jr. (and turn to Kaleb McGary if it doesn’t pan out). Justin Fields has been sacked on more than 13 percent of his dropbacks, which is untenable.

Cincinnati Bengals: CB Jamel Dean

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: OL, DB, DT, TE

Cap space: $34,651,354

Eli Apple is a free agent, leaving an open spot across from a hopefully healthy Chidobe Awuzie in 2023. The Bengals have more than $30 million to spend this offseason — the benefit of having a great quarterback on his rookie deal — and can afford to make a splash. Why not target the top available cornerback in this year’s market and land Dean? The former Buccaneer has let to allow a passer rating over 76.0 in coverage over the course of a full season as a pro.

Cleveland Browns: DT David Onyemata

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, DT, WR, S

Cap space: -$14,049,131

Cleveland is in a rough salary cap position and won’t be able to make a big splash this offseason after acquiring, then extending Deshaun Watson despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior.” Onyemata would bring some veteran beef to the defensive line at a relatively low cost.

Dallas Cowboys: LB Kyzir White

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: OL, LB, S, CB

Cap space: -$16,070,843

Both Leighton Vander Esch and Anthony Barr are free agents, creating a need at inside linebacker. White is a useful player in the middle of the field whose coverage has improved each of the last two seasons and who is capable of providing the kind of stable foundation that allows Micah Parsons to blast off and destroy quarterbacks. And, importantly, he might be an inexpensive one.

Denver Broncos: EDGE Charles Omenihu

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, OT, CB, LB

Cap space: $9,003,625

The Broncos had to trade away Bradley Chubb to make up some of the draft assets lost in the broken Russ Wilson trade, then dealt the first round pick received for the chance to hire Sean Payton. That leaves Denver light on cap space, limited at the draft and in need of another pass rusher. Omenihu won’t cost as much as Marcus Davenport or Brandon Graham but could be primed for a breakout in a larger role after spending the first four seasons of his career in a rotational role.

Detroit Lions: CB Patrick Peterson

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: CB, S, LB, DT, QB

Cap space: $22,464,270

Detroit will have the room for a bigger name corner, but Peterson would bring veteran leadership to a young secondary and head coach Dan Campbell is well aware of how good the veteran can be after playing him thrice in the last two seasons (Peterson has four passes defensed in that span). A one-year deal wouldn’t just make the Lions better; it’d also make the Vikings a little bit worse.

Green Bay Packers: S Nasir Adderley

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: WR, OL, EDGE, S, TE

Cap space: $16,401,658

Adrian Amos is a free agent and Aaron Rodgers’ contract and general being has kept the Packers walking a cap space tightrope. That may limit their ability to spend on the open market (especially if re-signing Allen Lazard is costly), but a buy-low candidate like Adderley could pay off dividends.

The former second-round pick showed modest improvement in his fourth year as a pro and moving to Green Bay was a boon for other young veterans like Rasul Douglas and De’Vondre Campbell. If Adderley’s market cools, he could set himself up for a second act in the Badger State.

Houston Texans: WR DJ Chark

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

Needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL

Cap space: $40,615,204

Chark isn’t a very exciting name, but the Texans need viable wideouts and this year’s crop of free agents is limited. Assuming Meyers doesn’t move south to hang out with Nick Caserio and Odell Beckham Jr. doesn’t even return that phone call, Chark may be the biggest difference maker available. He’s a useful deep threat (average target distance of at least 15 yards each of the last two seasons) who can lift up struggling quarterbacks and make his team better. And that’s exactly what Houston needs, especially if it’s breaking in a rookie quarterback this fall.

Indianapolis Colts: CB Cameron Sutton

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: QB, CB, S, OL

Cap space: $11,903,876

Stephon Gilmore is still operating on a high level. The money saved by releasing Matt Ryan gives him a high impact running mate to torture Trevor Lawrence and, uh, the rest of the AFC South’s vaunted passing offenses.

Sutton has developed into an above average starter and allowed fewer than 48 percent of his targets to be caught last season. He can team with Gilmore, then take over as Indy’s top corner should the veteran fall off or opt for retirement in the near future.

Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Poona Ford

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: DL, CB, S, OL

Cap space: -$5,009,198

Jacksonville may not be able to afford Ford, but the Seahawks’ lineman would boost the league’s 26th-ranked defense by providing a versatile veteran presence capable of taking up space over center or shooting gaps to crash into the backfield. He’d team with Davon Hamilton and Foley Fatukasi to create a stable front line that would allow a linebacker corps headed by Josh Allen and Travon Walker to thrive.

Kansas City Chiefs: S Jordan Poyer

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Needs: OL, CB, DT, LB, S

Cap space: $16,955,715

Juan Thornhill is a pending free agent. The Chiefs would have to clear a ton of cap space to be able to retain Orlando Brown and sign Poyer, a veteran who has played his best football in his age 30 and 31 seasons. Moving from one contender to another may be a lateral swap, but Kansas City appreciates the value in a versatile, reliable safety — the team went 38-11 with Tyrann Mathieu patrolling the backfield and could make Poyer a priority if the Bills don’t lock him down.

Las Vegas Raiders: DT Javon Hargrave

AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Needs: OL, DB, LB, DT, QB

Cap space: $39,077,038

The Raiders need massive defensive upgrades and have a bunch of spending money after releasing Derek Carr. Hargrave may be the top defensive player to hit the open market this March. More importantly, he’d occupy offensive linemen up front, creating extra room for Maxx Crosby to thrive.

Los Angeles Chargers: OT Jawaan Taylor

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: OL, CB, LB, DL

Cap space: -$21,291,124

LA knows how devastating injuries and poor offensive line play can be to its offense. Signing Taylor wouldn’t be cheap, but it would provide a high-upside bookend for Rashawn Slater as well as a player who has started all 68 possible games to start off his pro career. Sacrifices would have to be made to clear the cap space to land Taylor — but after watching Justin Herbert’s playbook get slashed due to a lack of time in the pocket, those cuts may be a necessity.

Los Angeles Rams: RB Damien Harris

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, OL, CB, DT, RB

Cap space: -$14,890,552

The Rams will likely make more waves for the players they offload than onboard this March — Jalen Ramsey is a frequent target of trade rumors a month into the offseason and Allen Robinson has been given permission to seek a trade. They’ll have to be thrifty on the open market, and Harris is capable of providing backfield stability at a relatively low cost. Cam Akers had a solid bounceback 2022 but remains inconsistent. Bringing in a proven platoon back with plenty of gas in his tank at 26 years old could be a boon for Matthew Stafford.

Miami Dolphins: CB Anthony Brown

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, TE, RB, LB, S, CB

Cap space: -$15,377,820

Byron Jones is no longer a Dolphin. That leaves a hole at cornerback, where players like Cameron Sutton or Rock Ya-Sin would fit. But Miami has limited spending room and may have to adjust expectations accordingly. Brown will turn 30 this season but he’s been a stable starting presence who can improve a lineup without breaking the bank. He’s allowed a passer rating under 90.0 in coverage in three of his last four seasons.

Minnesota Vikings: CB Byron Murphy

USA Today Sports

Needs: EDGE, CB, S, LB, TE

Cap space: -$15,780,607

Murphy’s a wild card. He’s capable of providing above-average, potentially Pro Bowl play at corner. However, injury helped lead to a struggle in 2022 and his stock as a free agent may have fallen in step.

That’s good news for the Vikings, who have a glaring need in their secondary and one of the league’s worst salary cap situations. Murphy may be too expensive for Minnesota, but his ceiling may be too high for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to pass up.

New England Patriots: S Jessie Bates III

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: OT, LB, WR, S

Cap space: $32,009,752

Devin McCourty’s future remains up in the air, but even if he returns New England could use young talent at safety to pair with rising star Kyle Dugger. Bates, a rangy centerfielder with a penchant for big plays in clutch moments, would be a perfect complement to Dugger’s do-everything, hit-hard skillset.

New Orleans Saints: WR Kenny Golladay

NFL on FOX

Needs: WR, IOL, RB, DT

Cap space: -$25,089,595

New Orleans has a miserable cap situation thanks to years of “buy now, pay later” management aimed at keeping Drew Brees’ Super Bowl window open (in fairness, this was one horrible missed pass interference call away from working). The Saints have little money to offer free agents and a roster in flux. Golladay, however, is in the midst of a career nadir and badly needs to revive his value as a wideout.

A one-year prove-it deal could provide the opportunity to be a capable WR2 next to Chris Olave. Or it could pair him with another shaky quarterback and shut the door on his career as a starter.

New York Giants: LB Lavonte David

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: WR, CB, LB, S

Cap space: $36,721,167

The Giants made their decision to retain Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. Now, attention can be paid to upgrading the league’s 29th-ranked defense. David continues to be a rock solid off-ball linebacker who clogs holes and leads by example from the middle of the field. He’d fill a major need for Brian Daboll’s ascending team.

New York Jets: OT Donovan Smith

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: QB, OL, EDGE, S, LB

Cap space: $1,868,119

A handful of teams are in need of a steady veteran quarterback this offseason. The Jets can provide the most amenities — a lineup stocked with young playmakers, a playoff-caliber defense and an incredibly low bar to clear when it comes to being better than the last guy (Zach Wilson). That leaves them in great position to trade for Aaron Rodgers, which would also damage the team’s cap space and draft assets and leave it looking for bargains.

Enter Smith, who had an unimpressive year with the Bucs and was a cap casualty this spring, but remains a useful starter with Super Bowl experience and limited injury history — 2022 was the first season in which he played fewer than 15 games.

Philadelphia Eagles: LB Bobby Wagner

Mike Christy/Getty Images

Needs: EDGE, LB, RB, CB, DL

Cap space: $3,806,391

Wagner joined up with an NFC powerhouse after leaving the Seahawks in 2022. That didn’t end with a playoff berth, but it did push his All-Pro streak to nine straight seasons. Joining Philadelphia gives him another shot at a Super Bowl ring and a wonderful opportunity to add more accolades to a Hall of Fame resume. The Eagles don’t have much spending room and plenty of their own free agents to re-sign, but off-ball linebacker remains a priority and Wagner is the best one available.

Pittsburgh Steelers: S Vonn Bell

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Needs: OL, CB, DT, LB

Cap space: -$908,182

Pittsburgh replaces Terrell Edmunds with another hard-hitting strong safety in Bell, who has spent the last three season racking up tackles for the rival Bengals. He’d be the kind of thumping run-stopper who’d continue to give Minkah Fitzpatrick license to do a little bit of everything for the Steeler defense.

San Francisco 49ers: S Julian Love

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, LB, IOL, DT, CB

Cap space: $6,417,865

The Niners may have to replace Jimmie Ward and Tashaun Gipson this offseason. Bringing in Love provides a younger option capable of playing safety with potential to slide into the slot and add extra coverage. The fifth-year pro emerged as a valuable starter for New York in 2022 and the Giants could be reticent to let him go. If he lingers on the open market, however, a San Francisco squad with a little cap space could be his preferred destination.

Seattle Seahawks: CB James Bradberry

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, S, LB, IOL, DT, CB

Cap space: $23,092,044

Cornerback isn’t the Seahawks’ top need, but Bradberry could be a luxury addition for a playoff team that could be one or two key players away from a division crown. Bradberry thrived in 2022, allowing only 45 percent of his targets to be caught in his first All-Pro campaign. Now he’d get to pair with Tariq Woolen to give Seattle a truly scary secondary.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Kaden Elliss

Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: IOL, QB, CB, S, EDGE

Cap space: -$49,061,621

Elliss isn’t a proper replacement for Lavonte David should the veteran linebacker leave, but Tampa Bay lacks the cap space to find anyone at his level in free agency. Elliss, however, could wind up being a bargain after a solid season in New Orleans that wasn’t as good as his stats would suggest (seven sacks but only 10 quarterback hits and 24 blitzes). Both his passer rating allowed in coverage and missed tackle rate dropped in 2022, potentially paving the way for a larger role outside of New Orleans.

Tennessee Titans: CB Jonathan Jones

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: EDGE, CB, LB, OL, TE, WR

Cap space: $13,293,721

Mike Vrabel has pulled from Bill Belichick’s stable of shined-up undrafted cornerbacks before — Malcolm Butler was the Titans big free agent acquisition his first season in Nashville. Tennessee didn’t get great production from Butler, but expectations (and costs) will be more manageable with Jones. The 30-year-old corner has played inside and out in coverage, with his 73.0 passer rating allowed in 2022 a career-high in his first season playing outside corner for the Patriots. He’d bring valuable experience and depth for a young crop of defensive backs.

Washington Commanders: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Needs: QB, OL, CB, S, LB

Cap space: $15,540,478

Washington remains in quarterback limbo — not good enough to build around any one guy and not bad enough to secure the draft position necessary to draft a franchise savior. But this is also a team for whom Taylor Heinicke is 12-11-1 as a starter the last two years, which suggests you can win with even a meager amount of competence behind center. And that’s the kind of low bar Garoppolo can clear, even after spending his last six seasons thriving in the 49ers’ set-it-and-forget-it offense. The Commanders don’t have the kind of skill players San Francisco does, but there’s enough talent there for Handsome James to keep winning.

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