Farmers across southern Australia will expel a collective sigh of relief next week as soaking rains bring relief after Australia's second-driest May on record.
What also makes the upcoming falls especially welcome is they seemingly defy the Bureau of Meteorologist's (BOM) grim June forecast released on Thursday, which promised little chance of a wet month.
Month's worth of rain ahead
Current model projections indicate two separate bands of rain will spread through the south-east states, the first from Sunday to Tuesday, and a second from Wednesday to Saturday.
In the meantime, a deep low-pressure system will drive heavy showers across agricultural regions of WA from Sunday to Wednesday.
So how much rain will fall? It's still too far out to be precise and totals will depend on location, but as a guide the Murray Basin along with most agricultural regions of SA can expect from 20mm to 50mm — close to the June average in one week.
In the west, up to 100mm is likely near the south-west coast, while up to 30mm could fall in the wheatbelt.
Falls contradict BOM forecast
A glance at the bureau's June rain forecast would suggest almost no chance of a wet June, so why are the seasonal and weather forecasts contradicting each other?
Weather models are generally run twice per day, so they are constantly updated with the latest observations from around the world to optimise their accuracy in forecasting weather.
The bureau's seasonal model though, is run 99 times over a period of nine days and the chance of above median rain is calculated off those 99 simulations.
Essentially the dry June forecast was mostly based off initial observations before a rain-producing low-pressure system formed near WA this week.
Given the developing El Niño and other dry climate drivers, it comes as no surprise the output for June was indicating little rain.
But sometimes you just get lucky, and considering the doom and gloom forecasts for 2023 Australian farmers just rolled a pair of sixes.
Second driest May on record
It's a relief most of the nation's dams are near capacity and soil moisture is running high, because May rainfall was dismal.
Averaged across the whole of Australia, the nation only received 7.9mm through the month, just 27 per cent of the long-term average and the second lowest in 124 years' worth of records.
The only drier May was 2006 when the total was 0.05mm less, or just 50 millilitres (a large shot glass) of water spread over one metre squared.
History tells us that for the remainder of 2023, the odds are firmly favoured on the dry side of the pendulum, but weather can always throw in a few lucky rolls.
