Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news this college football bowl season (opt-outs sold separately everywhere):
Welcome to the Great Crapshoot
The sponsors change. The rosters are in flux. The coaching staffs can be skeleton crews. The motivation is fickle. But the familiar rhythm and underrated value of bowl season remains the same. We don’t realize how much we need that Monday morning/afternoon Myrtle Beach–Potato Bowl doubleheader until it’s right there in front of us, one on teal turf and the next on blue, offering an alternative to last-minute Christmas shopping.
Thank you, Potato Bowl, for being you. And being there for us.
Bowl season is more diminished than ever, with the expanded College Football Playoff taking away quality teams and inhaling more airtime and interest. That’s the price of progress. But bowl season hasn’t gone away—there are still 36 non-playoff matchups stretching from this Saturday to Jan. 4, a beacon for bowl pool enthusiasts and bettors alike.
Only an idiot would attempt to predict how these games will turn out, both straight up and against the spread. And, well, The Dash knows the role and understands the assignment—with first-round playoff picks included.
In addition to nuts and bolts and picks and breakdowns, The Dash is giving a Hilltopper Scale rating to every game. This is based on the premise that the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have never played a normal bowl game, with all manner of oddities and surprises occurring in their 15-bowl history.
The first Western Kentucky bowl game was the 1963 Tangerine Bowl. WKU beat the Coast Guard, 27–0, in a carnival act that featured at least 12 turnovers. The previously undefeated Coast Guard lost either eight or nine of them, depending which account you read, while the Hilltoppers fastidiously committed only three or four—again, depending on the source. There is no mention of bad weather for the game, only bad ball security.
The most recent Western Kentucky bowl game was the 2023 Famous Toastery Bowl. In that one, the Hilltoppers fell behind Old Dominion, 28–0, early in the second quarter and still trailed by 21 entering the fourth, then scored three touchdowns in the final 14 minutes to force overtime and win on a field goal. Coming into the game, WKU backup quarterback Caden Veltkamp had thrown six college passes in two seasons; against ODU he went 40-for-52 for 383 yards and five touchdowns.
In between those two games, WKU also had the following occurrences: scoring 59 points in the first 51 minutes of the 2021 Boca Raton Bowl; playing in the ’20 Lending Tree Bowl with a 5–6 record; winning the ’19 First Responder Bowl on a 52-yard field goal by a freshman at the gun; and then there was the gold standard, the ’14 Bahamas Bowl. In that one, WKU led Central Michigan, 49–14, entering the fourth quarter—then gave up 34 unanswered points. CMU’s last touchdown was a 48-yard pass with three laterals to score after time expired, but the Chippewas went for two and missed, allowing WKU to hold on, 49–48.
Given that florid history, The Dash will apply a Hilltopper Scale that appraises how wildly entertaining every bowl (and playoff) game might get. Let’s go.
Celebration Bowl (1)
Jackson State Tigers (11–2) vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (9–2), noon ET Saturday (ABC). Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Line: None.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 6. Unlikely to carry the oomph of 2021, when these same two teams played. The Bulldogs of legendary, old-school coach Buddy Pough upset newcomer college coach Deion Sanders’s Tigers. But the halftime show will always be a banger.
Skinny: These are two hot teams playing explosive football. Jackson State has won nine straight games; South Carolina State has won seven straight. This HBCU bowl matchup between the SWAC and MEAC has historically been dominated by the MEAC, so the Bulldogs are the choice.
Dash pick: South Carolina State 35, Jackson State 28.
Salute To Veterans Bowl (2)
South Alabama Jaguars (6–6) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (6–6), 9 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN). Site: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Ala. Line: South Alabama by 8, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 4. The last two games in this bowl have been decided by two points, with last year’s turning on a missed two-point conversion to tie. But expectations for mayhem are not high.
Skinny: This is a matchup of a sixth-year senior quarterback (Western Michigan’s Hayden Wolff) and a redshirt freshman (South Alabama’s Gio Lopez). The Jaguars are tied for eighth nationally in yards per play at 6.7, which should stress a Broncos defense that has been vulnerable this season.
Dash pick: South Alabama 41, Western Michigan 31.
Frisco Bowl (3)
Memphis Tigers (10–2) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (6–6), 9 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN). Site: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas. Line: Memphis by 4.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. Only once has the winning team scored fewer than 35 points in the Frisco Bowl. Also, the inaugural edition of this game (which used to be the Miami Beach Bowl) in 2014 featured an all-out brawl between Memphis and BYU after the final gun.
Skinny: Who is focused on the task at hand? West Virginia is in a coaching transition, with Neal Brown out and interim Chad Scott taking over for the bowl game. Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield has had his name in the mix for other jobs. This is an important matchup for American Athletic Conference credibility, with one of its best teams playing a team that tied for eighth in the Big 12. Last roundup for Memphis’s all-time passing leader, Seth Henigan, who will go over 14,000 career yards in the game against a highly suspect pass defense.
Dash pick: Memphis 40, West Virginia 35.
Boca Raton Bowl (4)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8–5) vs. James Madison Dukes (8–4), 5:30 p.m. ET Wednesday (ESPN). Site: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Fla. Line: James Madison by 9, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 10. The Hilltoppers themselves are playing, so this is clearly peak Hilltopper Scale.
Skinny: Neither team is exactly rolling into South Florida—JMU has lost its last two games and WKU has lost three of its last four and has a million players in the portal. The Dukes lead the nation in turnover margin at plus-17, but most of that was compiled early in the season—they’re just a plus-one over the last five games. However, the Hilltoppers have been afflicted by late-season carelessness, with 10 giveaways in the last five games. If they both hold onto the ball, a shootout between QBs Alonza Barnett of JMU and Veltkamp of WKU could be entertaining. The Dukes’ disruptive defense has sagged late in the year, giving up an average of 33.7 points in their last three games.
Dash pick: James Madison 37, Western Kentucky 28.
L.A. Bowl (5)
California Golden Bears (6-6) vs. UNLV Rebels (10-3), 9 p.m. ET Wednesday (ESPN). Site: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Line: Cal by 1.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. Rob Gronkowski is involved, for one. (Although not Jimmy Camel, the vomiting camel who had a brief star turn during the Jimmy Kimmel bowl tie-in days.) And never forget the role the Bears played in helping perpetrate one of the worst bowl games of the 21st century, the 10–7 overtime loss to the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl.
Skinny: Tumult reigns, with UNLV having lost coach Barry Odom to Purdue and Cal having lost starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza and leading receiver Nyziah Hunter to the portal. But there should be some star players on the field if they don’t opt out: Cal cornerback Nohl Williams (the nation’s leader in interceptions); UNLV wide receiver Ricky White III (3,000 career receiving yards and a special-teams demon); and safety Jalen Catalon (89 tackles and five interceptions on the season).
Dash pick: Cal 16, UNLV 10.
New Orleans Bowl (6)
Georgia Southern Eagles (8–4) vs. Sam Houston Bearkats (9–3), 7 p.m. ET Thursday (ESPN2). Site: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. Line: Georgia Southern by 6, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 6. Sam Houston’s last four wins are by a total of 17 points, so there is some cliff-hanger potential. Georgia Southern is coached by Clay Helton, so literally any outcome is possible.
Skinny: The Bearkats lost their coach to Temple and a bunch of players to the portal, but many of the transfers are expected to play. No surprise there, this is the first bowl game in program history. Sam Houston has averaged just 14.5 points over its last six games but won four of them, a testament to stout defense. Georgia Southern has been a bit more prolific offensively but also a bit more lenient defensively.
Dash pick: Georgia Southern 24, Sam Houston 17.
Cure Bowl (7)
Ohio Bobcats (10–3) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9–4), noon ET Dec. 20 (ESPN). Site: Camping World Stadium, Orlando. Line: Ohio by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. What happens when two teams have breakthrough seasons that end in conference titles—then lose their coaches? Stay tuned.
Skinny: Jax State has been a classic RichRod operation, running the ball 69% of the time, with Tre Stewart going over 1,600 yards on the season. The Gamecocks will collide with an Ohio run defense that ranks 10th nationally in fewest yards allowed per carry (3.1) and fifth in yards allowed per game (94.31). This could come down to which dual-threat QB plays better, Jax State’s Tyler Huff or Ohio’s Parker Navarro.
Dash pick: Ohio 28, Jacksonville State 23.
Gasparilla Bowl (8)
Tulane Green Wave (9–4) vs. Florida Gators (7–5), 3:30 p.m. ET Dec. 20 (ESPN). Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Line: Florida by 14, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. Florida has been all over the map this season—bad losses and great wins and some high drama along the way. Tulane has been a pretty straightforward operation this season, albeit one staggering into this game.
Skinny: The Green Wave were upset in both of their last two games and lost their star freshman quarterback, Darian Mensah, to the portal. Not great, although coach Jon Sumrall did pull his name out of contention for several jobs. Florida, meanwhile, turned a sour season into a strong finish with a three-game winning streak, retaining coach Billy Napier and keeping rising star QB DJ Lagway in the fold. It’s been five years since the Gators won a bowl game, so their fans might appreciate a spirited effort in front of what should be a strong blue-and-orange crowd.
Dash pick: Florida 31, Tulane 14.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game 1 (9)
Indiana Hoosiers (11–1) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11–1), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 20 (ABC/ESPN). Site: South Bend. Line: Notre Dame by 7.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. The Indiana State Championship may bring out some fresh mouthiness from Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti. And it could produce a real identity crisis for the bandwagon IU graduates who root for Notre Dame football and their alma mater in basketball. But aside from the monumental Irish flop against the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Hoosiers’ punt-team meltdown against the Ohio State Buckeyes, both of these teams have been very consistent. However, there is a chance of snow in the early forecast …
Skinny: Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden is hardly a madman blitz enthusiast, but one look at the way Indiana’s offensive line and quarterback handled pressure from Ohio State should tempt him to turn up the heat. The Irish defense is the best unit on the field, but they’ll also need QB Riley Leonard to make some plays with his arm and legs against an underrated Indiana defense.
Dash pick: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 19.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game 2 (10)
SMU Mustangs (11–2) at Penn State Nittany Lions (11–2), noon ET Dec. 21 (TNT/Max). Site: State College, Pa. Line: Penn State by 8.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 6. Never underestimate James Franklin’s ability to get uptight in a crucial spot. And SMU’s nitroglycerin offense can explode at any time, as evidenced in their fourth-quarter comeback in the ACC championship game. (And dropping 66 points on TCU.) This is a white-out game with a chance of white stuff falling from the skies, so dare to dream of a snow game. The playoff games are lacking one signature staple of weird bowl games: backup players and interim coaches thrust into key spots because of opt-outs and job changes.
Skinny: SMU QB Kevin Jennings is an electric talent, but also turnover-prone. If he serves up multiple turnovers in cold conditions against a quality defense, look out. But the Mustangs’ defense is unlikely to be trampled by the Penn State running game—covering Tyler Warren might be a different story.
Dash pick: Penn State 27, SMU 21.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game 3 (11)
Clemson Tigers (10–3) at Texas Longhorns (11–2), 4 p.m. ET Dec. 21 (TNT/Max). Site: Austin, Texas. Line: Texas by 11, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 4. Unless Matthew McConaughey or Bevo act up on the sidelines, this should be a pretty straightforward football game.
Skinny: The specter of Dabo Swinney in an elimination game is enough to make any coach uptight, and Steve Sarkisian might be more prone to that than most. On the other hand, after losing twice to the Georgia Bulldogs and zero times to anyone else, the Horns might feel freed by being on the opposite side of the playoff bracket from their nemesis. Both starting quarterbacks are Texans with huge high-school reps who have had good careers with periods of inconsistency—who plays better (and avoids crippling mistakes) in this big spot, Quinn Ewers or Cade Klubnik?
Dash pick: Texas 24, Clemson 19.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game 4 (12)
Tennessee Volunteers (10–2) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (10–2), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 21 (ABC/ESPN). Site: Columbus, Ohio. Line: Ohio State by 7.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. Oh yeah, this could get weird. Start with a fan base ready to turn on the home team and head coach at the first sign of trouble. Mix in a healthy amount of mouthy orange in the stands. Add a dash of winter weather and let the magic happen.
Skinny: On a team facing a potential crisis of confidence, the Ohio State offense is the most acute area of concern. From game plan to execution, the Buckeyes were a disaster against three-touchdown underdog Michigan and will have to rethink their approach to another very tough team against the run. (The Volunteers are eighth in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game and fourth in yards allowed per rush.) On the flip side, Tennessee might find it hard to establish star running back Dylan Sampson but will need to persist at it, just as Michigan stuck with the running game to set up occasional key pass plays. The Vols need their banged-up best wideouts to play; the Buckeyes need their under-utilized best wideouts to get the ball.
Dash pick: Tennessee 21, Ohio State 20.
Myrtle Beach Bowl (13)
UTSA Roadrunners (6–6) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6–6), 11 a.m. ET Dec. 23 (ESPN). Site: Brooks Stadium, Conway, S.C. Line: UTSA by 8.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. Two 6–6 teams that give up 30 points per game squaring off at 11 a.m. on a Monday two days before Christmas? Hell yes this is going to get crazy. Tune in or regret it dearly.
Skinny: There is a lot to consider here, starting with the fact that UTSA was 6–0 at home and 0–6 on the road—and this is a true road game, played in Coastal’s home stadium. But the Chanticleers have both of their quarterbacks who have played this year in the portal—if neither plays, redshirt freshman Tad Hudson could see his first game action since he was in high school in 2022. (He spent ’23 at North Carolina and did not play.) Both teams are sketchy defensively, as noted above. UTSA is the more turnover-prone of the two.
Dash pick: Coastal Carolina 35, UTSA 32.
Potato Bowl (14)
Northern Illinois Huskies (7–5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (6–6), 2:30 p.m. ET Dec. 23 (ESPN). Site: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho. Line: Northern Illinois by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. This matchup feels rife with unpredictability, but the Potato Bowl tends to produce blowouts. The last eight have all been decided by two scores, and 11 of the last 12. With some luck they can replicate Idaho 61, Colorado State 50 in 2016.
Skinny: Fresno State reportedly has seven starters in the portal, including quarterback Mikey Keene. NIU’s starting QB, Ethan Hampton, is also in the portal. Hampton’s backup, freshman Josh Holst, at least got a midseason start and saw some time while Hampton was injured. Fresno State’s backups have barely thrown the ball. When in doubt, go with the team with a slightly better defense.
Dash pick: Northern Illinois 28, Fresno State 24.
Hawaii Bowl (15)
South Florida Bulls (6–6) vs. San Jose State Spartans (7–5), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 24 (ESPN). Site: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu. Line: San Jose State by 4, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. A moderately uneventful game that kicks off at 8 p.m. on Christmas Eve is fine; it’s time to wrap presents and drink egg nog with the game as a soothing background companion. No need to get us all engrossed.
Skinny: The hope is that Spartans wide receiver Nick Nash plays and gives us a show. The former quarterback is leading the nation in receptions (104), receiving yards (1,382) and touchdown catches (16). He’ll be taking on the No. 93 pass defense in the nation. The Bulls should be able to counter with a successful ground game against a middling SJSU run defense. There should be points.
Dash pick: San Jose State 34, South Florida 29.
GameAbove Sports Bowl (16)
Pittsburgh Panthers (7–5) vs. Toledo Rockets (7–5), 2 p.m. ET Dec. 26 (ESPN). Site: Ford Field, Detroit. Line: Pitt by 7, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. It’s a bowl game on the day after Christmas in Detroit—what could go wrong? Pitt has played some wild bowls, from mounting five scoring drives in the final 18 minutes to win the 2022 Sun Bowl to the game that must never be spoken of again—a 3–0 loss to the Oregon State Beavers in the ’08 Sun. But don’t discount the Rockets for drama, too: Their last four bowls have been decided by a total of 14 points.
Skinny: Pitt’s soaring 7–0 start turned into an 0–5 crash landing, with a minus-8 turnover margin in that losing streak. The Panthers also lost their running game and largely lost the use of quarterback Eli Holstein to injuries in the final three games. Toledo comes in on a disappointing two-game losing streak as well, scoring a total of 21 points against Ohio (not a bad loss) and Akron (very bad loss). There are several potential opt-outs to keep an eye on.
Dash pick: Pittsburgh 30, Toledo 21.
Rate Bowl (17)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7–5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (8–4), 5:30 p.m. ET Dec. 26 (ESPN). Site: Chase Field, Phoenix. Line: Kansas State by 7, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 4. This is a rematch of the 2006 Texas Bowl, a game remembered by approximately no one. The more memorable bowl that season was this one (then called the Insight), which featured Mike Leach’s Texas Tech Red Raiders coming back from 31 points down in the second half to beat Minnesota—a result that got Gophers coach Glen Mason fired two days later.
Skinny: If both Kansas State’s DJ Giddens and Rutgers’s Kyle Monangai play, this will be a game showcasing two excellent running backs. If they don’t play, this may become a matchup of two pedestrian passing games. Rutgers has at least mastered the art of not beating itself, ranking in the top 10 nationally in fewest turnovers and fewest penalty yards per game.
Dash pick: Rutgers 20, Kansas State 19.
68 Ventures Bowl (18)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (7–5) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (7–5), 9 p.m. ET Dec. 26 (ESPN). Site: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala. Line: Bowling Green by 7, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. This game has been played under many different names—nobody is sure what 68 Ventures actually is—but it has produced some stuff. In 2001, the Marshall Thundering Herd beat the East Carolina Pirates, 64–61—the highest-scoring game in bowl history. The next year, ESPN reported during the game it was broadcasting that Louisville Cardinals coach John L. Smith was leaving for Michigan State, which led to a rather awkward halftime on-air interview.
Skinny: The Red Wolves’ defense ranks 131st in yards allowed per play at 6.92. Good luck to them covering the best player you haven’t seen, Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. (100 catches for 1,342 yards). The Falcons also have a solid defense that has given up more than 375 yards just once in its last nine games.
Dash pick: Bowling Green 41, Arkansas State 28.
Armed Forces Bowl (19)
Oklahoma Sooners (6–6) vs. Navy Midshipmen (8–3), noon ET Dec. 27 (ESPN). Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas. Line: Oklahoma by 8.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 4. Unless the Sooner Schooner runs over the Navy ram, there are low expectations for shenanigans at this game.
Skinny: Do not pick against the armed forces in the Armed Forces Bowl. Military academies have won the last three editions of the bowl, and their last five appearances. The Midshipmen are a significant underdog, but the Sooners are a challenged offensive team that is also without starting quarterback Jackson Arnold and a flotilla of other players from that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has plenty of time to prepare for Navy’s hybrid option attack. The Dash doesn’t anticipate a lot of pyrotechnic offense in this game.
Dash pick: Navy 20, Oklahoma 17.
Birmingham Bowl (20)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7–5) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6–6), 3:30 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN). Site: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala. Line: Georgia Tech by 2.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. All things are possible in a game pitting the Albuquerque Tinkler (Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia) against Tech coach Brent Key, who was last seen staring at the scoreboard in Sanford Stadium after his team lost an eight-overtime freak show against Georgia. But generally speaking, not much memorable happens here. South Florida Bulls fans are the only people with fond memories of this bowl, thanks to their 3–0 record in it.
Skinny: This should be a good, competitive game between two teams trying to finish successful seasons on a high note. Both offenses reliant on their quarterbacks—Haynes King has had 42% of Tech’s runs and passes, with freshman backup Aaron Philo also in heavy use when he’s in the game. But Pavia has been just about the whole show for Vandy, with 62.9% of the team’s runs and passes.
Dash pick: Georgia Tech 25, Vanderbilt 21.
Liberty Bowl (21)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (8–4) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6–6), 7 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN). Site: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis. Line: Texas Tech by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 7. The venerable Liberty Bowl has been around forever and had some moments, including when it was played indoors in the Atlantic City (N.J.) Convention Center in 1964—before domed stadiums were a thing. Texas Tech also can do weird, as noted above with the ’06 Insight Bowl, and Arkansas won this game two years ago, 55–53, over Kansas.
Skinny: The Hogs have plenty of players in the portal, and leading receiver Andrew Armstrong has opted out—he caught 78 passes this season but somehow scored only one touchdown. Meanwhile, star Tech running back Tahj Brooks (1,500-plus rushing yards) hasn’t yet declared his bowl intentions. The Red Raiders put 108 points on the board in their last two games.
Dash pick: Texas Tech 44, Arkansas 41.
Holiday Bowl (22)
Syracuse Orange (9–3) vs. Washington State Cougars (8–4), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (Fox). Site: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego. Line: Syracuse by 8.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. These two teams are addicted to drama—Syracuse has played nine one-score games, winning seven; Washington State has played seven, winning four. It should also be noted that Wazzu has three pick-sixes on the season, which matches the number of pick-sixes Syracuse QB Kyle McCord threw in a single nightmarish half against Pittsburgh.
Skinny: Wazzu’s great season deflated late, ending with a three-game losing streak to New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming—with all three opponents scoring the winning points in the final minute. Syracuse’s season went the opposite direction, ending on a three-game winning streak highlighted by upsetting Miami and knocking the Hurricanes out of the playoff. Cuse coach Fran Brown says, “We don’t opt out around here,” and if those words hold up, the Orange should have a much stronger roster than the Cougars, who have several starters in the transfer portal. Star QB John Mateer isn’t one of them—yet.
Dash pick: Syracuse 38, Washington State 30.
Las Vegas Bowl (23)
Texas A&M Aggies (8–4) vs. USC Trojans (6–6), 10:30 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN). Site: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas. Line: Texas A&M by 3.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. What happens in Vegas … Actually, the last time USC played an SEC team in that town was way back in September, when the Trojans beat the LSU Tigers in a thriller that was deemed a sort of playoff preview—then neither team came close to making it. But Texas A&M was in the picture until late. Keep in mind that every bowl game Lincoln Riley is in has resulted in one team (or both) scoring at least 40 points.
Skinny: This game totally feels like a Who Wants To Be Here decision. There are starters transferring from both schools, and plenty of potential opt-outs to keep an eye on. The Aggies slid through the end of the season, losing their last three SEC games, as their strength in the trenches waned on both sides of the ball. USC’s late-season quarterback switch to Jayden Maiava produced mixed results, but at least the Trojans managed to finally win a couple of close games (Nebraska and UCLA).
Dash pick: Texas A&M 29, USC 24.
Fenway Bowl (24)
North Carolina Tar Heels (6–6) vs. Connecticut Huskies (8–4), 11 a.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN). Site: Fenway Park, Boston. Line: North Carolina by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. Assuming Bill Belichick attends the game, the number of cutaways to him watching from wherever he will be could number in the thousands. (Spoiler alert: Don’t expect any emotion from the Hoodie In Waiting.) If UConn coach Jim Mora would like to divulge who killed Tupac, that might drive up the interest level.
Skinny: Interim North Carolina coach Freddie Kitchens will remain on Belichick’s staff, so the current Tar Heels should very much feel like they are auditioning for 2025 playing time, bowl prep and the actual game—that should increase commitment level. The Huskies should be thrilled to have a bowl in their backyard against a name opponent and bring their own juice to the proceedings. The good news is that someone is going to win a bowl for the first time in a while—Carolina has lost its last four, and UConn’s last bowl victory was in 2009.
Dash pick: North Carolina 24, UConn 20.
Pinstripe Bowl (25)
Boston College Eagles (7–5) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6–6), noon ET Dec. 28 (ABC). Site: Yankee Stadium, New York. Line: Nebraska by 2.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. There is material here. The idea of a bunch of BC/Red Sox fans invading Yankee Stadium is a good start. Then throw in the fact that two of the Eagles’ last four bowls have been canceled—one by COVID-19 and one by a never-ending electrical storm at the 2018 First Responder Bowl. Top it off with legions of overly enthusiastic Nebraskans wearing bright red around New York at their first bowl game in eight years.
Skinny: A meeting of refugee NFL coaches in Matt Rhule vs. Bill O’Brien. In a Frostian flashback, the Huskers mastered the art of losing the close ones, going 1–5 in one-score games. BC was considerably better at 3–2. The Eagles have had a couple of important opt-outs, one on each side of the ball, while Nebraska has lost a lot of defensive players to the portal (along with DC Tony White). Cornhuskers QB Dylan Raiola had three TD passes and eight interceptions across the last seven games.
Dash pick: Boston College 21, Nebraska 19.
New Mexico Bowl (26)
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10–3) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (8–4), 2:15 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN). Site: University Stadium, Albuquerque. Line: TCU by 12.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. If the Horned Frogs are involved, this could get interesting. Their last postseason game was the worst beating anyone has ever taken with a national title on the line, 65–7 to Georgia. Prior to that there was: a landmark upset of Michigan; a pandemic cancellation of the Texas Bowl; four straight one-score games. (The most recent of which was the 10–7 Cheez-It atrocity vs. California.) This will be the latest date for a Ragin’ Cajuns bowl game since playing Arkansas-Monticello in the Oil Bowl on New Year’s Day 1944.
Skinny: The Horned Frogs finished the season well, winning five of their last six—and the lone loss was a final-play field goal at Baylor, two years after memorably beating the Bears on a final-play field goal in the same stadium. Louisiana laid an egg in the Sun Belt title game, being dominated by Marshall, 31–3—but the Cajuns were the rare team to go undefeated on the road this year. TCU’s potent offense could roll up some numbers in this one.
Dash pick: TCU 43, Louisiana 24.
Pop-Tarts Bowl (27)
Iowa State Cyclones (10–3) vs. Miami Hurricanes (10–2), 3:30 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ABC). Site: Camping World Stadium, Orlando. Line: Miami by 3.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. There are not one but two edible mascots in this game, which is a fine place to start.
Skinny: Miami has lost five straight bowl games and failed to cover the spread in any of them. Their motivation level for this one is in question as well, after being in playoff contention all season and then being snubbed at the end. But if Heisman Trophy finalist Cam Ward plays, that’s a game-changer—and running back Damien Martinez will certainly relish a chance to shred Iowa State’s defense the way Cam Skattebo did (170 yards on just 16 carries). On the flip side, the Cyclones’ pair of 1,000-yard receivers, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, could turn this into a shootout.
Dash pick: Miami 40, Iowa State 34.
Arizona Bowl (28)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (8–5) vs. Colorado State Rams (8–4), 4:30 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (CW Network). Site: Arizona Stadium, Tucson. Line: Miami by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 7. Snoop Dogg is involved, and even in his late-career turn as an avuncular character he presents the potential for mischief. The last two editions of the game were decided by a total of four points, and both in walk-off fashion. (Wyoming won one and lost one.) And Colorado State ended the regular season by scoring 29 fourth-quarter points to rally past Utah State.
Skinny: Miami took some big portal hits at wide receiver and defensive back. Colorado State took some on defense. But the players who do show up should be excited to play, with the Rams looking for their first bowl victory since 2013 and the RedHawks trying to snap a two-game bowl skid. Miami is offensively challenged and could struggle to keep pace with a CSU offense powered by streaky quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.
Dash pick: Colorado State 28, Miami 26.
Military Bowl (29)
East Carolina Pirates (7–5) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (6–6), 5:45 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN). Site: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. Line: NC State by 5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. Any athletic event the Wolfpack are involved in has the potential to go off the rails at any time. And there is some florid history between these two in football, most recently the 2022 season opener in which the Pirates missed a short field goal and an extra point in the final three minutes of a one-point loss. Expect much trash talk between fans bases before, during and likely after this game as well.
Skinny: The Pirates salvaged their season with a four-game winning streak after the firing of coach Mike Houston and elevation of interim coach Blake Harrell, who has since been named the full-time boss. But this is a bad matchup for the ECU defense, which is not great against the run and must take on an NC State attack that has had three 200-plus-yard rushing games in the last four.
Dash pick: NC State 35, East Carolina 28.
Alamo Bowl (30)
BYU Cougars (10–2) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (9–3), 7:30 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ABC). Site: Alamodome, San Antonio. Line: Colorado by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. This game could have it all, if everyone shows up—Coach Prime and his two potential top-five NFL draft picks; BYU with its penchant for close and dramatic games; and whatever is in the RiverWalk that tends to make Alamo Bowl games wild affairs. (Too bad these two Big 12 teams didn’t meet in the regular season. This is actually the pairing the conference would have preferred to Arizona State–Iowa State.)
Skinny: It would be a surprise if Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter opted out, given their allegiance to Deion Sanders. BYU, which tied for the national lead in interceptions with 20, faces a QB who threw only eight in 454 attempts. The Cougars lost two of their last three; the Buffaloes won five of their last six.
Dash pick: Colorado 34, BYU 28.
Independence Bowl (31)
Marshall Thundering Herd (10–3) vs. Army Black Knights (11–1), 9:15 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN). Site: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, La. Line: Army by 16, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 3. Shreveport can do some stuff—never forget the 2000 I-Bowl that was played in a freak blizzard; or the ’07 game that was Alabama’s first bowl win under a guy named Nick Saban; or Frank Beamer’s career swan song, a 55–52 win over Tulsa. Alas, Army doesn’t do weird. Though Marshall certainly could.
Skinny: No disrespect to Marshall, which has had an excellent season, but this Army team deserves a shot at an accomplished power-conference opponent. One game against Notre Dame isn’t enough to get a full test of the Black Knights’ worth, which is considerable. And now Marshall is in massive transition after a coaching change and portal exodus. The Herd gave up more than 200 rushing yards six times this season and will put a depleted defense on the field against the No. 1 ground game in the country. Like most Army games, this will be blunt-force trauma for the opponent until they can stop it.
Dash pick: Army 35, Marshall 9.
Music City Bowl (32)
Iowa Hawkeyes (8–4) vs. Missouri Tigers (9–3), 2:30 p.m. ET Dec. 30 (ESPN). Site: Nissan Stadium, Nashville. Line: Missouri by 3, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 3. Punts don’t register on the Hilltoppers Scale, and this is a Kirk Ferentz game, so manage your expectations. There could be some tragicomic entertainment value to Mizzou playing a second straight bowl game against a Big Ten opponent in quarterback disarray.
Skinny: The two biggest talents have opted out—Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III and Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson. The Hawkeyes also have two QBs in the portal and are hoping Brendan Sullivan is back from injury to start, although he’s thrown just 35 passes this season. Last roundup for fifth-year Mizzou QB Brady Cook, a fan favorite when he’s not been a fan pinata. (Life of a starting quarterback.)
Dash pick: Missouri 20, Iowa 14.
ReliaQuest Bowl (33)
Alabama Crimson Tide (9–3) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7–5), noon ET Dec. 31 (ESPN). Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Line: Alabama by 10, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 5. Not quite the same gravitas as the last meeting between these two, in the national semifinals last season. No Saban, no Harbaugh, no national title aspirations. But, hey, maybe Connor Stalions shows up, in disguise or otherwise.
Skinny: Who shows up, literally and figuratively? There could be a torrent of opt-outs for both programs, but those haven’t been declared as of publication. (Michigan monster defensive tackle Mason Graham is entering the draft and probably won’t play, but hasn’t announced his bowl intentions yet.) Alabama could be sulking after just missing the playoff, or could be angry. We won’t know for sure until kickoff. Michigan’s uneasy relationship with the forward pass was survivable against Ohio State, but is not sustainable here.
Dash pick: Alabama 21, Michigan 13.
Sun Bowl (34)
Louisville Cardinals (8–4) vs. Washington Huskies (6–6), 2 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (CBS). Site: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas. Line: Louisville by 2.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 7. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is not afraid to throw some trickeration on the field and just see what happens. Jedd Fisch might well answer in kind. There is nothing to lose here. But the Sun Bowl also has hosted some mesmerizing slogs: a scoreless tie (Arizona State vs. Catholic University in 1940), the infamous 3–0 game in 2006 between Oregon State and Pitt; and a 6–3 pillow fight between UCLA and Illinois in 1991.
Skinny: Louisville QB Tyler Shough and top receiver Ja’Corey Brooks have opted out. Washington is going with freshman QB Demond Williams Jr., who showed some sass in the final two games of the regular season. Beyond the personnel crapshoot, we know this: Washington was undefeated in Husky Stadium and winless everywhere else. El Paso is not home.
Dash pick: Louisville 30, Washington 26.
Citrus Bowl (35)
South Carolina Gamecocks (9–3) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (9–3), 3 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (ABC). Site: Camping World Stadium, Orlando. Line: South Carolina by 9.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 6. Shane Beamer can get silly on occasion. Bret Bielema is not above it, either. If the Illini want to break out those Red Grange throwback uniforms with the fake leather helmets they wore against Michigan, those would be well-received here. Beyond that, the intrigue stems from Illinois’s forever losing streak to SEC teams—the Illini are 0–6 all-time against teams that were in the SEC at the time of the game. (Beating Missouri in 1994 doesn’t count, nor do wins over Kentucky in 1913 and Mississippi State in 1923.)
Skinny: Both teams have had great seasons that hopefully will carry over to full enthusiasm for this game. That might be a little more in question for the Gamecocks, who were the hottest team in the country at the end of the year and held out slim hope for a CFP bid. If the best players show up (TBD, other than top Illini wideout Pat Bryant, who has already opted out), it’s advantage South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers is a rising star QB for the Gamecocks.
Dash pick: South Carolina 26, Illinois 16.
Texas Bowl (36)
Baylor Bears (8–4) vs. LSU Tigers (8–4), 3:30 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (ESPN). Site: NRG Stadium, Houston. Line: LSU by 1, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 6. There is always the potential for Unhinged Brian Kelly to make an appearance. There is no potential for that with Dave Aranda, the Spock of the sidelines. These two programs haven’t played a close game against each other since the 1963 Bluebonnet Bowl, a 14–7 LSU win. (They’ve met only four times since then.)
Skinny: South Carolina’s competition for hottest team in the nation is Baylor, which has won six in a row by an average of 14.8 points to save Aranda’s job. Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington has taken off during the streak, averaging 136 rushing yards per game. LSU’s star offensive tackles, Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., have both declared for the draft and Campbell is a confirmed opt-out—Jones may well follow. A bunch more Tigers might opt out. On roster stability alone, this shapes up well for the Bears.
Dash pick: Baylor 31, LSU 24.
Gator Bowl (37)
Duke Blue Devils (9–3) vs. Mississippi Rebels (9–3), 7:30 p.m. ET Jan. 2 (ESPN). Site: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla. Line: Ole Miss by 14.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. Lane Kiffin is involved. Full stop.
Skinny: Duke is a happy, overachieving 9–3. Ole Miss is a brooding, slighted 9–3, chafing at its spot outside the playoff. (Or at least Kiffin is.) The Rebels have a massive talent advantage, but we’re still waiting on full opt-out information. While the Blue Devils’ future looks bright with Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah coming in for 2025, its present for this bowl game took a hit with the departure of starting QB Maalik Murphy. Henry Belin IV will start in his place. Both teams are good at getting after the quarterback, so we’ll see which offensive line holds up better.
Dash pick: Mississippi 31, Duke 12.
First Responder Bowl (38)
North Texas Mean Green (6–6) vs. Texas State Bobcats (7–5), 4 p.m. ET Jan. 3 (ESPN). Site: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas. Line: Texas State by 10, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. Oh yes, the random, midpack G5 matchup in the random, midpack bowl game after New Year’s—with a 4 p.m. Friday happy hour kickoff—is where the action is. Texas State is 1–0 all-time in bowl games, having beaten Rice last year. A Mean Green upset could stand alongside their 14–13 win over Pacific in the 1946 Optimist Bowl among great program moments.
Skinny: Standout North Texas QB Chandler Morris is in the portal, as is leading receiver DT Sheffield. The Bobcats are on a roll offensively, averaging 49 points over their last three games, and although the UNT defense improved as the season went along, it’s not a good unit. Could be a field day for Texas State QB Jordan McCloud.
Dash pick: Texas State 52, North Texas 35.
Mayo Bowl (39)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (7–5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (6–6), 7:30 p.m. ET Jan. 3 (ESPN). Site: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte. Line: Minnesota by 5.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 9. The potential here is less with the game than the postgame. A vat of mayo descending upon P.J. Fleck’s sweater-and-tie ensemble would be a welcome sight. Row The Mayo?
Skinny: The Hokies are 0–5 in one-score games, which makes the Gophers’ 3–4 mark in those games look great. Minnesota threw the ball more avidly this season than at any time since 2019, with FCS transfer Max Brosmer playing well over the last seven games. That could be a problem for a Tech secondary that has three starters in the portal. For the Hokies, QB injuries leave that spot unsettled—freshman Pop Watson played well in the bowl-clinching win over Virginia to close the regular season.
Dash pick: Minnesota 28, Virginia Tech 21.
Bahamas Bowl (40)
Buffalo Bulls (8–4) vs. Liberty Flames (8–3), 11 a.m. ET Jan. 4 (ESPN2). Site: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Bahamas. Line: Liberty by 1.5, per DraftKings.
Hilltopper Scale, from 1 to 10: 8. You throw out the record books when the Bulls and Flames throw down. This is the site of the all-time Hilltopper bowl game, that 49–48 win over Central Michigan, so the potential is always there. Even if nothing interesting happens, you can at least tune in for cutaways to the Caribbean.
Skinny: There is not a lot of middle ground with the Bulls—they either blow out the opponent or get blown out. They’ve played five games decided by 30 or more points, going 2–3. Liberty has several starters in the portal, most notably quarterback Kaidon Salter. Ryan Burger, who has attempted 24 passes in three college seasons, will start in his place. Given the relocation from arctic Buffalo to the Bahamas, the Bulls should be extremely happy to be there.
Dash pick: Buffalo 32, Liberty 31.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: Everything You Need to Know for Bowl Season.
