Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (realignment legal advice sold separately — and not cheaply — on the West Coast):
First Quarter: Close-game blunders | Second Quarter: Playoff chaos scenarios | Third Quarter: Biggest disappointments
Fourth Quarter: The upset kings
Yeah, we probably should have seen it coming. When oddsmakers established No. 10 Notre Dame as a six-point favorite over Louisville, that was a wheelhouse game for the upset king of college football, Jeff Brohm (31).
During Brohm’s nine-and-a-half seasons as a college head coach—three at Western Kentucky, six at Purdue, half a season so far at Louisville—he’s won 22 times as an underdog. He’s pulled at least one upset every season, and sometimes as many as four. The Notre Dame upset was his 14th in the last five-and-a-half years.
Eight of those 22 have come when Brohm’s team was an underdog by a touchdown or more. He shocked undefeated Marshall as a 23.5-point ‘dog in his first season at Western Kentucky; famously routed Ohio State and Urban Meyer as a 12.5-point ‘dog in 2018; took down 11.5-point favorite Iowa in 2021; and 14-point favorite Illinois last year.
“I like big games,” Brohm said after beating the Fighting Irish. “Our team likes big games. If you can’t get up for those then maybe this sport isn’t for you.”
Scott Utterback/Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK
He’s not alone in reveling in a good upset. The other current coaches who have done the most to turn the tables on Las Vegas since 2018:
Chip Kelly (32), UCLA. He’s pulled 13 upsets over the last five-and-a-half seasons—most of them with relatively small point spreads. But he’s beaten rival USC twice as an underdog, and he shocked Mike Leach and Washington State in 2019 as an 18.5-point ‘dog. That was a memorable freak show in which the Bruins trailed 49–17 in the third quarter before scoring 50 points in the final 19 minutes to win 67-63.
P.J. Fleck (33), Minnesota. He’s got a dozen upsets between 2018 and ‘22, a couple of them as a double-digit ‘dog. There was a memorable field storm after beating Penn State in ‘19. But the ones that have resonated most with Gophers fans were over Wisconsin in ‘18, ’21 and ’22. It’s always good to win Paul Bunyan’s axe, and even better when it comes as an upset.
Jonathan Smith (34), Oregon State. He’s also had 12 upset wins since 2018, including some doozies. The Beavers were 1-5 in ‘18, winless against FBS teams, when they beat Colorado as a 24.5-point underdog. All six of Oregon State’s Pac-12 victories in ‘19 and ’20 were upsets. And he’s beaten rival Oregon two of the last three seasons as an underdog.
The Guys Who Never Get to Play Underdog
You can only pull upsets if you’re not favored. And some coaches rarely enter that realm—a good problem to have. The coaches with the fewest upset opportunities in the last five-and-a-half seasons:
Nick Saban (35), Alabama. He’s had a mere two chances, with one upset win. Both games were against Georgia in 2021. The Crimson Tide won the first meeting in the SEC championship game as a 4.5-point ‘dog, then lost in the College Football Playoff title rematch as a 2.5-point ‘dog. It’s been several centuries since Alabama had a regular-season opportunity to pull an upset.
Dabo Swinney (36), Clemson. He’s been an underdog just four times, with a 1-3 record in those games. Clemson walloped Alabama in the 2018 CFP title game as a ‘dog and lost to LSU in ’19 title game. In ACC play, the Tigers randomly lost at Pittsburgh during the ‘21 regular season with the Panthers as a three-point favorite, and a couple of weeks ago lost at home as a one-point underdog to Florida State.
Others with four underdog opportunities since 2018: Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and USC (one win); Ryan Day at Ohio State (one win); Kirby Smart (one win).
Drive for 325 Update
Each week The Dash is updating the progress of Iowa offensive coordinator and nepo baby Brian Ferentz (37) toward fulfilling contractual obligations that call for the Hawkeyes to average 25 points per game. That’s a total of 325 points across 13 games. After last year’s offensively challenged team wheezed its way 17.7 points per game, improvement was mandated—and put in writing. The update through six games:
- Last week: Iowa staved off Purdue at home, improving to 5–1.
- Points scored: 20, parceled out modestly with one touchdown in the first quarter, field goals in the second and third, and another touchdown in the fourth. The Hawkeyes gained 291 yards, their fifth time in six games accumulating fewer than 300 and their third time scoring 20 or fewer points. With starting quarterback Cade McNamara out for the season, backup Deacon Hill made his first start. He completed six of 21 passes, none of them to a wide receiver.
- Average points through six games: 21.8, now slipping 3.2 below the Mendoza Line.
- Average points attributable to the offense: 19.2. Percentage of Iowa points this season that are not attributable to the Iowa offense but still countable toward Ferentz’s contract: 12.2%. The Hawkeye offense scored all 20 points by their big-boy selves against Purdue, though one field drive of four yards was set up by a 41-yard interception return from defensive back Cooper DeJean, who remains Iowa’s best offensive player.
- Number of points needed the rest of the way to reach the target: 194. The Hawks need to average 27.7 through the next seven games.
* Next up: Wisconsin on Saturday in Madison. Nothing less than the last Big Ten West title figures to be on the line here. The rest of the division is terrible; if Iowa wins, it should be favored in its final five games, none of which are against a team that currently has a winning record. The Hawkeyes could win 10 or 11 games with one of the worst offenses in the country, which would be the most Ferentzian thing ever.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Brent Venables (38), Oklahoma. Plain and simple, that was a huge credibility win over Texas for Venables in the building process with the Sooners. It wasn’t just upsetting a hated rival ranked No. 3 in the country, but the way Oklahoma did it was impressive. It played inspired, physical football, producing an epic goal-line stand. It then coolly executed on a do-or-die final drive for the winning touchdown. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel earned his spot in Oklahoma’s crowded lore with that drive to cap off an excellent all-around performance. There are still six league games to go, but the Sooners took a huge step toward playing in the Big 12 championship game. (The bad news coming out of the Texas upset: receiver Andrel Anthony is out for the season. He's led the team in receiving yards to date with 429.)
