Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Dan Lanning is going to put a year’s salary on 22 black and live with the results, because he can:
First Quarter: Ranking the unbeatens | Second Quarter: One-loss Playoff path
Third Quarter: Still running on the same hamster wheel
Like rodents racing on a spinning carousel to nowhere, some teams seem to be stuck where they are. Do they need to change coaches? Do they need to show patience and ride it out? The answers to those questions might depend on the size of buyouts and the willingness of boosters to pay them off. The Dash takes a look at 10 schools that are running in place, more or less.
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel/USA TODAY Network
Texas A&M (21). Every time you run diagnostics on the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station, it keeps producing a Costly Mistake readout. This is Year 6 of spending like oil tycoons on facilities and salaries—and players, it would seem—but the results continue to be largely indistinguishable from those under fired predecessor Kevin Sumlin:
Sumlin: 51–26 overall (.662 winning percentage), 25–23 in the Southeastern Conference (.521).
Fisher: 43–24 overall (.642), 25–20 in the SEC (.556).
Fact is, Fisher is winning at slightly better than Texas A&M’s historic level, which is .604. But this is a program that changed its aspirations over the course of time, leaving the Big 12 for the SEC and expanding Kyle Field five times until it now seats more than 100,000 people. The 100,000-seat programs tend to want to win big, and they paid Fisher an astronomical sum to do that.
He’s won small, other than a 9–1 blip in 2020. The current Aggies are 4–3, with zero victories over teams with winning records, though the last five games present a chance to finish well. But any hopes of finally winning the SEC West are all but extinguished. This looks like another eight-win season. Spin that hamster wheel.
Thanks to administrative malpractice, the reported buyout for Fisher is nearly $77 million. Will they pay it? We’ll see. Among the things A&M could do with that money instead of spending it to make a football coach go away: Endow 106 in-state scholarships for full cost of attendance.
North Carolina State (22). By and large, Dave Doeren has done a fine job as coach of the Wolfpack. His record is 76–57 in his 11th season, a .571 winning percentage that also hits above the program’s historic level of .514. He’s had eight winning seasons in the last nine.
The only drawback has been a chronic inability to hit the high notes. He’s maxed out at nine wins, which is good, but 10 ACC programs have hit double-digit win totals at least once during Doeren’s tenure. Louisville, which won in Raleigh a couple of weeks ago, has a chance to be the 11th.
The current Wolfpack are 4–3 and coming off a dispiriting 21-point loss to Duke. (The resurgence of the Blue Devils under Mike Elko isn’t helping Doeren from a compare/contrast standpoint in the Research Triangle.) Duke won that game with a backup quarterback who completed four passes, producing the big plays that NC State could not.
After an open date this week, NC State closes with Clemson, Miami, at Wake Forest, at Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Bowl eligibility is no cinch.
Doeren got a one-year contract extension in February, through 2027. Some staff changes were made in the offseason that haven’t exactly worked wonders, so more tinkering may be in order. But Doeren should get a 12th year.
California (23). Justin Wilcox is in his seventh season, has respect in the coaching industry and has been willing to invest himself in a difficult job. And the Pac-12 is suddenly bonkers-tough. But still, the trend line is bad.
Cal is 3–4 with a tough schedule ahead, seemingly ticketed for a fourth straight losing season. Under Wilcox, Cal has been a sturdy defensive program with absolutely no explosiveness on offense. This year the Golden Bears can move the ball, averaging their most points per game under Wilcox at 29.9, but they’re also giving up their most points per game under Wilcox at 31.1. Utah, Oregon State and Washington have all rung up their highest point totals against Power 5 competition against the Bears.
Even if Cal wanted to move on from Wilcox, could it afford to? The athletic department has no money and is taking a vow of media-rights poverty entering the ACC next year. And, besides, this is a Serious Academic School with its eyes on outer space, which might be a more appropriate expenditure.
Maryland (24). Mike Locksley turned the thing around, ending a six-year run of losing seasons with consecutive winning records in 2021 and ’22. This year the Terrapins got off to another promising 5–0 start, then took a 17–10 lead on Ohio State—and it’s not gone well since then. The Buckeyes scored the final 27 points of that game, then Maryland came back and was upset at home by a disappointing Illinois team.
Now the specter looms of another strong season start faltering down the stretch. In 2021, Maryland was 4–0 before finishing 7–6; last year it started 6–2 and finished 8–5. The dream of beating one of the Big Three in the Big Ten East has been elusive, with Penn State and Michigan not appearing vulnerable again this year.
For Maryland, the best plan is to see how much life could improve when the Big Ten goes away with divisions next year, and the annual Big Three gantlet disappears. In the next five seasons, the Terps play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State a total of seven times, down from the usual 15. That may be the key to sustained happiness.
It also should be a consideration for Indiana (25), which is snorkeling in Year 7 with Tom Allen (who has a healthy buyout of his own). The Hoosiers play the Big Three of the Big Ten eight times from 2024 to ’28, also down from 15. Let ’em up, let ’em breathe.
Syracuse (26) is in Year 8 under Dino Babers, with two winning seasons. As with Maryland, the Orange have developed a fast start/quick fade dynamic. They were 6–0 last year and finished 7–6; this year the start was 4–0, and the current record is 4–3.
Granted, the last three games were against 4–2 Clemson, 6–0 Florida State and 6–0 North Carolina, but none of the three were competitive—the Orange were outscored 112–24. The final five games all are winnable on paper (at Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest). The Cuse hasn’t had consecutive winning seasons since 2012 and ’13, and it would seemingly behoove Babers to get there this year.
Minnesota (27) has been successful under seventh-year coach P.J. Fleck, going 47–30. The Gophers have had winning Big Ten records three times, they’re 4–0 in bowl games, and they’ve beaten rival Wisconsin twice in a row for the first time since 1993 and ’94. (Last time they’ve beaten the Badgers three in a row? ’85 to ’87.) The boat continues to be rowed.
Now here is the catch: The Big Ten West has never been more winnable, yet Minnesota can’t win it. A different school has won the past four division titles: Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Minnesota tied for the West crown in 2019 but was blown out by the Badgers for a ticket to Indianapolis to play for the league title.
The current Gophers are 3–3 overall, 1–2 in conference play and brutal offensively. If they’re going to make a push to finally win the West, it has to start Saturday at Iowa, coming off an open date, in a game that will set the sport back to the turn of the century. The 20th century.
This is the last chance. Because divisions will be eliminated next year, and Minnesota’s chances of playing for a Big Ten title will get much longer.
If you want to be impatient, there are three more programs to consider.
Arkansas (28) is in year four with Sam Pittman, a delightful character who produced quick results that have given way to diminishing returns. Pittman took over a lousy program, was a competitive 3–7 during the pandemic season of 2020, jumped up to 9–4, and has backslid to 7–6 last year and 2–5 this season. The current Razorbacks have lost four one-score games, most recently making Alabama uncomfortable with a second-half rally before falling 24–21. A Saturday home game against Mississippi State might not be a must-win, but nobody wants to see the reaction if the Hogs lose.
Boston College (29) also is in Year 4 with Jeff Hafley producing middling results—which, truth be told, the Eagles are in about Year 15 of life on the hamster wheel to nowhere. Their record from 2009 to now: 83–97, with nine seasons of six or seven wins. Among many schools (now and likely in the near future) to wish they hadn’t switched conferences, BC might be the poster child.
Hafley (18–23 at BC) had a shot at a program-turning upset against Florida State that would also have altered the course of this season nationally, but the Eagles were flagged for a program-record 18 penalties for 131 yards. They’re now heading into a series of 50-50 games, fitting for a 50-50 program.
But Boise also blew a 30–10 lead against the Rams, letting that one get away. The question now is whether the program is getting away from Avalos, who is 20–13 at his alma mater. At the moment, the inside track to the Mountain West championship belongs to Air Force and UNLV.
