Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where a 72-year-old coach and his team might just show up singing with Jimmy Fallon on late-night TV.
Would You Rather …
The North Carolina State Wolfpack (1) fired Kevin Keatts on Sunday, less than a year after making the 2024 Final Four and less than a week after being eliminated from even making the 15-team ’25 ACC tournament. This sparks a philosophical question.
Would you rather have the Wolfpack’s “One Shining Moment” from last year amid an otherwise inconsistent tenure? Or have, say, Greg Gard’s body of work with the Wisconsin Badgers (2), with a lot of winning and a lot of early NCAA tournament exits? Do you want the big thrill counterbalanced by a lot of angst, or a succession of moderate thrills and fewer disappointments?
In Keatts’s eight seasons, NC State had three NCAA bids, plus a likely fourth that was wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. The Wolfpack were never higher than a No. 9 seed. They were one-and-done in both ’18 and ’23. They had losing seasons twice. But they did have what might be the greatest upset run in tourney history, winning five straight games to capture the ACC tourney and the automatic NCAA bid, then winning four more there to make the program’s first Final Four since 1983. During that tear they beat the Duke Blue Devils twice and North Carolina Tar Heels once.
Gard, meanwhile, is headed to his seventh NCAA tournament in 10 seasons, and it would have been eight if 2020 had been played. He’s had one losing season, but he’s also never made it past the Sweet 16—and the last of those was ’17. Wisconsin hasn’t won an NCAA game since ’22.
Minutes verdict: Give me the thrill of the big run, and I’ll endure the lean teams on either side of it.
Newcomer’s Ball
Talk about freshening up the scene—as the Little Dance completes its first week, the first three bids for the NCAAs have all gone to first-time participants.
The SIU Edwardsville Cougars (3) captured the Ohio Valley Conference title Saturday night. The Cougars were a Division II program until 2009, then endured 14 consecutive losing seasons at the D-I level. Then in his fourth season as head coach, Brian Barone flipped the record to 19–14 and a new era of competitiveness began. Two seasons after that, SIUE has a team with a core that has been playing together under Barone for multiple years. After two losses to Southeast Missouri in the regular season, SIUE emphatically reversed that in the OVC final.
The Omaha Mavericks (4) have made brutalizing trash cans a viral phenomenon, continuing a postgame celebration of victories that started in December. The Mavericks have gone 17–3 since they started it, advancing to the Summit League final Saturday. That was good enough to earn the league’s automatic bid, since their opponent, the St. Thomas Tommies, is still in the transition phase to Division I. Chris Crutchfield knocked around the assistant ranks for 27 years before getting the top job at his alma mater, and he’s now improved from nine wins to 15 to 22 in three seasons.
The High Point Panthers (5) have been chasing that elusive Big Dance bid the longest of the three newcomers, having moved into Division I in 1999. Prior to this season, it had been 21 years since the Panthers won more than one game in the Big South tournament. Now they’ve won three to earn the bid. (Attention coach shoppers: Alan Huss is 56–14 in two seasons as a head coach.) High Point’s 14-game winning streak currently is tied for the longest in the nation.
Little Dance, Part II
The Minutes sprints through the second half of the conference tournaments, which will be waged this week heading into Selection Sunday:
Atlantic Coast Conference (6), March 11–15, Charlotte
Conference KenPom rank: Fifth out of 31.
Top seed: Duke Blue Devils. They blew through the season with a 28–3 record, 19–1 in the league, and own the highest average victory margin in the country (22.4 points). They have the best player in the nation, the most overall talent and the tallest team. Good luck locating the weaknesses.
Dark horse: The Clemson Tigers aren’t much of a dark horse as a No. 3 seed, but they’ll have to do in a conference severely lacking in quality depth. They’re the only team in this field that has beaten Duke, and their only loss in the last two months came in triple overtime.
Vulnerable high seed: The fourth-seeded Wake Forest Demon Deacons haven’t won consecutive games in more than a month. They’re a brutal three-point shooting team that relies on getting to the foul line to score.
Bubble teams: The North Carolina Tar Heels and Wake Forest need to win multiple games to get in the tourney, but they’re poised for an elimination game in the quarterfinals. Winner gets a shot at Duke, which could be the résumé magic bullet. Everyone else needs to win the tournament.
Best early game: If North Carolina draws the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round, it’s a rematch of a one-point win by the Heels in January. (Pitt has to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to get there first.)
Hot coach: Pat Kelsey has done a preposterously good job in his first season with the Louisville Cardinals, transforming a blank canvas into a work of art. Louisville is 25–6 after going a combined 12–52 the previous two years, and despite enduring a flurry of injuries.
Hot-seat coach: Ron Sanchez got the interim job with the Virginia Cavaliers after Tony Bennett bailed on his team shortly before the season. It hasn’t gone well—Virginia is 15–16, 8–12 in the league, and prepping to go in a different direction once the No. 9 seed Hoos are eliminated.
Best player: Cooper Flagg. He’s having one of the best freshman seasons we’ve ever seen.
Minutes pick: Clemson (7). There isn’t much urgency for Duke in this event, and the Tigers are a well-rounded team that is playing well. As we saw last year and in 2022 when Virginia Tech won, stuff tends to happen here. The regular-season champion has not won the tourney since ’18.
Big 12 (8), March 11–15, Kansas City, Mo.
Conference KenPom rank: Third out of 31.
Top seed: Houston Cougars. They’re a ridiculous 34–4 since joining the league, and now two-time champions. Their only loss since November was by a single point in overtime to a very good Texas Tech Red Raiders team. None of their last 10 opponents has scored more than 65 points.
Dark horse: BYU Cougars. This is an intriguing bunch, a skilled team that can really shoot. Their 10.6 made threes per game is the most in the country for a power-conference team. The fourth-seeded Cougars take an eight-game winning streak to Kansas City.
Vulnerable high seed: Arizona Wildcats. The No. 3 seed is just 3–5 in its last eight games, not performing very well defensively on the glass. Arizona will also have to deal with having a smaller share of the fan contingent in K.C. than the Wildcats were accustomed to in the Pac-12 tourney in Las Vegas.
Bubble teams: Nobody, really. The Baylor Bears probably firmed up their spot last week; the Cincinnati Bearcats and TCU Horned Frogs would have to win multiple games just to get back into the conversation.
Best early game: An Iowa State Cyclones–BYU quarterfinal game would be a juicy rematch of their epic double-overtime game in Ames, Iowa, on March 4. More of the Cougars’ elite offense against the Cyclones’ kamikaze defense, please.
Hot coach: If Iowa State’s T.J. Otzelberger is no longer on the Indiana Hoosiers’ radar, the hot coach of the moment could be BYU’s Kevin Young. Could the former NBA assistant’s splashy debut season draw interest from a pro franchise?
Hot-seat coach: Bobby Hurley of the Arizona State Sun Devils and Johnny Dawkins of the UCF Knights have had long tenures at their schools, and the last few years haven’t been good. Both schools are fixated on football these days and trying to come up with the money to pay the House v. NCAA settlement, so that might help them keep their jobs.
Best player: Hunter Dickinson, Kansas Jayhawks. This could just as easily be JT Toppin of Texas Tech, but Dickinson might be more important for a team that could use a good showing here. With Kansas in the unusual and uncomfortable No. 6 seed slot, the disappointing Jayhawks are trying to build momentum for next week. They got a good start on that by smacking Arizona on Saturday, a game in which Dickinson scored a career-high-tying 33 points on a career-high 21 two-point field goal attempts. Kansas’s path forward might be through a massive force-feeding of Dickinson.
Minutes pick: Texas Tech (9). The Red Raiders have never won a Big 12 tournament title, despite being a charter member of the league and having some noteworthy basketball success. They’re a good team with a favorable draw, being on the other side of the bracket from Houston and BYU.
Big East (10), March 12–15, New York.
Conference KenPom rank: Fourth out of 31.
Top seed: St. John’s Red Storm. They won their first conference title in 33 years, and they won it by three games over the second-place Creighton Bluejays. The Johnnies are a defensive juggernaut that overcomes inaccurate shooting by ferociously crashing the offensive glass. Their four losses on the season are by a total of seven points.
Dark horse: UConn Huskies. The two-time reigning national champions are a No. 3 seed for this event. It’s been a bit of a messy season for the Huskies, but absolutely no one in Madison Square Garden would be shocked if they suddenly piece everything back together this week for another run.
Vulnerable high seed: Marquette Golden Eagles. The Eagles spent part of the season in the AP top 10, but now find themselves a No. 5 seed in this event after losing six of their last 10 games. Since January, they have been giving up too many offensive rebounds and shooting too few free throws.
Bubble teams: The Xavier Musketeers are squarely on the cut line. The Villanova Wildcats would need to at least make the tourney final to get in, and more likely need to win the whole thing.
Best early game: Marquette-Xavier in the quarterfinals is a must-win for the Musketeers and an important game for the Golden Eagles to reestablish themselves. They split in the regular season, with each team winning by two points.
Hot coach: The young whippersnapper at St. John’s, Rick Pitino. He’s also the best tournament coach in the field, Dan Hurley included.
Hot-seat coach: Kyle Neptune could be coaching for his job in MSG this week. A third straight year without an NCAA bid, after taking over a flush program from Jay Wright, would probably be a fireable offense.
Best player: There are as many as four compelling choices for this, but The Minutes is going with Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton. The 7-footer is both a super-efficient offensive player and a major defensive presence. He’s made 71.7% of his two-point shots, and a respectable 34% of his threes—and that’s after missing his last 11, dropping his percentage from 43.6% in mid-February.
Minutes pick: St. John’s (11). It has been the best team all season, and Pitino has showed a career-long knack for winning conference tournaments when it would truly mean something to the fan base. For the Johnnies to take back Manhattan would be an epic moment in program history.
Big Ten (12), March 12–16, Indianapolis
Conference KenPom rank: Second out of 31.
Top seed: Michigan State Spartans. They’re always good, but this is Tom Izzo’s best team in several years—perhaps since the 2019 Final Four squad. Michigan State can go a legitimate 10-deep, a vanishing luxury in the modern game. That allows the Spartans to guard and crash the glass with full fervor for 40 minutes. Freshman guard Jase Richardson is a rising star, averaging 16.9 points since being inserted into the starting lineup a month ago.
Dark horse: Indiana has become a fascinating story, winning five of its last seven after coach Mike Woodson said he would step down at season’s end. Key stat: The fewer times sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako shoots, the better they do. His average field goal attempts in Indiana’s last six victories is 5.8. His average field goal attempts in Indiana’s last seven losses is 13.4.
Vulnerable high seed: The Michigan Wolverines are sliding into the postseason on a three-game losing streak, with their offense dwindling down to big men Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf and not much else. Michigan badly needs its guard play to reignite for the postseason.
Bubble teams: Indiana has played itself into a fairly secure position. The Ohio State Buckeyes might be on the wrong side of the bubble and need to win at least one game in Indy—two would be better. The Nebraska Cornhuskers plummeted from the bubble all the way out of this tourney, failing to finish in the league’s top 15.
Best early game: Indiana vs. Oregon in a zesty 8-vs.-9 game to start the day Thursday. The two played an excitement game in Eugene, Ore., last week. The Ducks are on a seven-game winning streak heading into their first Big Ten tourney.
Hot coach: Kevin Willard, Maryland Terrapins. There isn’t much upward mobility from a Big Ten job, especially one at a school that values basketball, but after a 24–7 season, the 49-year-old Willard is one deep March run away from putting himself in the next tier of coaches nationally.
Hot-seat coach: Fran McCaffery, Iowa Hawkeyes. They barely snuck into this tourney at 16–15 amid speculation that McCaffery is ready to retire after 15 seasons on the job.
Best player: Braden Smith, Purdue Boilermakers. He’s second nationally in assists at 8.8 per game while also averaging 16.3 points and 2.3 steals. Smith’s elevated play has helped keep the Boilermakers prominent in the Big Ten and nationally during life after Zach Edey.
Minutes pick: Maryland (13). The second-seeded Terps lost to Michigan State on a 55-foot shot at the buzzer. That’s their only loss in the last month. They have size and athleticism, shoot it well enough and guard tenaciously. Maryland is overdue to do something of note in the Big Ten; this is the time.
SEC (14), March 12–16, Nashville
Conference KenPom rank: First out of 31.
Top seed: Auburn Tigers. Their two-game losing streak is a product of league competitiveness, not a sign of significant concern. (If they lose their first game in Nashville and/or Chad Baker-Mazara does something that earns another ejection, then it’s probably fair to sound an alarm.) They’re big, they’re old, they’re athletic, they’re tough, they’re confident.
Dark horse: Texas A&M Aggies. They’ve won seven games in this tourney the past three seasons. They’re perfectly willing to guard and board for four straight games; we’ll see if the No. 5 seed can make enough shots.
Vulnerable high seed: Missouri Tigers. Mizzou is on a three-game losing streak, with its defense faltering. If the Tigers are hitting shots and getting to the line, they can make a run. Veteran guard Tamar Bates, who has been such a big part of this surprise season, needs to reassert himself.
Bubble teams: There have been as many as five: the Vanderbilt Commodores, Georgia Bulldogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners. At present, all but Texas might be in. But all of them should bring the appropriate urgency to Music City, because you never know.
Best early game: The first game of the tourney is the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Arkansas. The Hogs have done the work to get in the bracket, but the only thing that might jeopardize them now would be a second loss to the last-place team in their last four games.
Hot coach: Dennis Gates, Missouri. He’s had two 20-win seasons—and one 20-loss season in between. The wins speak louder than all those losses during that aberration year.
Hot-seat coach: Matt McMahon, LSU. He’s expected to stay on the job in 2025–26, though that might be as much a function of LSU’s financial commitments to football and NIL as anything else. McMahon is seven games under .500 overall and 26 games under .500 in SEC play in three seasons with the Tigers.
Best player: Johni Broome. The Auburn big man is second only to Flagg for national player of the year. He’s a powerful force inside at both ends, but can step out as a shooter and passer offensively. If anyone is going to have a 30–20 game this month, it’s Broome.
Minutes pick: Florida Gators (15). They’re 3–1 against the other top-four seeds, a high-functioning team that can win games at both ends of the floor. The Gators are not only good enough to win this tournament, but the next one, too.
American Athletic Conference (16), March 12–16, Fort Worth
Conference KenPom rank: 10th out of 31.
Top seed: Memphis Tigers. With a 26–5 overall record, 16–2 in the league, it’s time to give Penny Hardaway his roses. He’s done a great job building and coaching this team, and that’s after deconstructing and reconstructing his staff in early September—not the ideal time for massive upheaval.
Dark horse: UAB Blazers. Andy Kennedy has won two out of four conference tournaments at UAB. The Blazers ended with a bit of a thud, losing their finale to the Tulane Green Wave, but in Yaxel Lendeborg they have someone capable of multiple 20–10 games.
Hot coach: Ross Hodge, North Texas Mean Green. The 44-year-old former Grant McCasland assistant is 42–22 in two seasons at North Texas, maintaining what McCasland had going. The second-seeded Mean Green are methodical defensive grinders who will be tough to eliminate here.
Hot-seat coach: Eric Konkol, Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The once-proud mid-major program has fallen, and Konkol has not yet gotten it back up. He’s 33–59 in three seasons on the job, 12–19 this year.
Player to watch: PJ Haggerty, Memphis. He’s fifth nationally in scoring at 21.2 points per game, playing well against all eight power-conference opponents the Tigers faced. Haggerty is the rare player who should probably shoot more threes, since he’s making 41% of them.
Minutes pick: Memphis (17). The Tigers seasoned themselves against top nonconference competition and could make a serious run in the next tournament, too.
Atlantic 10 (18), March 12–16, Washington, D.C.
Conference KenPom rank: Eighth out of 31.
Top seed: VCU Rams. The coaches change but the results remain the same—this is VCU’s 25th consecutive winning season under seven different leaders. Ryan Odom is doing it at a slower pace than some of his predecessors, but it’s working. The Rams are 25-game winners and should be in the NCAAs even if they don’t win this tournament.
Dark horse: Saint Joseph’s Hawks. They had an end-of-season hiccup in a Philly scrap against the La Salle Explorers, who were sending Fran Dunphy off with a final home win. But prior to that, St. Joe’s had won five straight and could be headed for a juicy quarterfinal game against the Dayton Flyers.
Hot coach: Odom and Tony Skinn of the George Mason Patriots could both be in demand. Odom has had three jobs in the last five years and has a good thing going at VCU, but it might be hard to turn down if Virginia or Villanova comes calling.
Hot-seat coach: Matt McKillop of the Davidson Wildcats is helped by his last name, but the on-court product in his three seasons has been mediocre. He’s one game below .500 overall, and 16 games below .500 in league play. Help could be on the way, though, with the news that Davidson legend Steph Curry—who starred for McKillop’s father, Bob—will be an assistant general manager for the program.
Player to watch: Max Shulga, VCU. The Ukrainian guard came with Odom from the Utah State Aggies and has had two impressive seasons in Richmond. Shulga averages 15.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists while making more than 40% of his threes.
Minutes pick: Dayton (19). The No. 3 seed was not great at the start of league play, but finished it at 12–6 with a rousing road win over VCU. The Flyers are on a four-game winning streak and have scored more than 70 points in seven straight games. They’ll need to get a few more stops than usual to win this tourney, but it’s possible.
Big West (20), March 12–15, Henderson, Nevada.
Conference KenPom rank: 12th out of 31.
Top seed: UC San Diego Tritons. With the Drake Bulldogs safely in the field of 68, The Minutes is taking up the cause of the Tritons as the next mid-major that deserves an at-large bid if calamity strikes in this tourney. UC San Diego is 28–4 overall, 18–2 in the league, and owns a No. 35 NCAA NET ranking. They shoot a ton of threes and usually make them, while also committing very few turnovers.
Dark horse: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. They’d have a tough road as a No. 5 seed, but Joe Pasternack has won this tournament twice before.
Hot coach: Eric Olen has been a UC San Diego lifer, working there as an assistant from 2004–13 and as the head coach since then. But he should be on the radar out West—the Tritons were dominant at the Division II level and are 48–16 over the past two seasons after moving to D-I in ’20.
Hot-seat coach: Rod Barnes, Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners. He took Bakersfield to its first and only Division I NCAA tournament in 2016, part of a two-season run in which the Roadrunners won 49 games. But it’s been declining returns since then, and this is the program’s fourth straight losing season.
Player to watch: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, UC San Diego. The hard-battling, 6' 6" New Zealander leads the nation in free throw attempts with 274 and is second in makes with 210. He also makes 61.2% of his two-point shots.
Minutes pick: UC San Diego (21). The Tritons might well have to go through the UC Irvine Anteaters, which is a very good team in its own right at 27–5. But there is no picking against a team on a 13-game winning streak and gunning for its first-ever D-I NCAA bid.
Conference USA (22), March 11–15, Huntsville, Ala.
Conference KenPom rank: Ninth out of 31.
Top seed: Liberty Flames. They earned the top seed by a game over the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, finishing the season by winning eight of their last nine. Liberty shoots a high percentage while playing vigilant defense, staples of Ritchie McKay’s 10-year tenure.
Dark horse: New Mexico State Aggies. They won five of their last seven games to finish 17–14 and earn a No. 5 seed, setting up a good quarterfinal game against the Kennesaw State Owls.
Hot coach: Talvin Hester spent 20 years as a nomadic assistant coach, most of it in the Southwest, before becoming the head coach of the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in 2022. After a 15–18 debut season, the 46-year-old has won 20 games in back-to-back years.
Hot-seat coach: Jeremy Ballard has had five straight losing seasons with the Florida International Panthers, the last two with 22 defeats. But for FIU to make a change, it would have to divert money from football and care about the basketball product, neither of which is likely.
Player to watch: Jaron Pierre, Jacksonville State. He’s sixth in the nation in field goal attempts, averaging 17.5 per game, but he’s not just a chucker—he makes a lot of them, too. The 6' 6" Pierre, formerly at Wichita State and Southern Mississippi, is fourth in the nation in scoring at 21.8 points per game.
Minutes pick: Jacksonville State (23). The Minutes foresees Pierre putting the Gamecocks on his back and leading the latest Ray Harper warlock run, after taking Jax State to the Big Dance twice before.
Ivy League (24), March 15–16, Providence, R.I.
Conference KenPom rank: 14th out of 31.
Top seed: The Yale Bulldogs won the league by four games, losing just once, to the Harvard Crimson on March 1. Yale has no glaring weaknesses and is the Ivy’s most efficient offensive team by a pretty wide margin. James Jones has dominated the league for much of his tenure.
Dark horse: Dartmouth Big Green. Dartmouth has won six out of nine games since the calendar flipped past January, sometimes laboring to score but never relenting defensively. The Big Green guard vigorously but don’t foul or give up offensive rebounds easily.
Hot coach: Jon Jaques, Cornell Big Red. He was a player on the last Cornell team to make the NCAAs, in 2010. Now in his first season as the head coach, Jaques has gone 17–10 and comes into this four-team tourney on a four-game winning streak.
Hot-seat coach: Steve Donahue of the Penn Quakers found out exactly how hot his seat was on Monday, when he was fired after 10 years on the job.
Player to watch: Xaivian Lee, Princeton Tigers. Fresh off a 23-10-12 triple double to end the regular season against Penn, the 6' 4" Canadian guard is fourth in the Ivy League in scoring, eighth in rebounds and second in assists.
Minutes pick: Yale (25). Jones lost a couple of key pieces from last year’s NCAA round of 32 team to the transfer portal, but he retained do-everything guard Bez Mbeng and two other starters to maintain the best roster in the league. It might not be easy, but the Bulldogs should repeat and earn their first back-to-back NCAA bids in school history.
MAAC (26), March 11–15, Atlantic City, N.J.
Conference KenPom rank: 25th out of 31.
Top seed: Quinnipiac Bobcats. Is this the year The Q finally breaks through? The Bobcats have never been to the Big Dance, but they went 15–5 in the MAAC this season. With the top seed wrapped up, coach Tom Pecora rested a couple of his key players for the regular-season finale in order to be ready for this tourney.
Dark horse: Manhattan Jaspers. The No. 5 seed closed the season on a four-game winning streak and has won seven of nine. Manhattan had Quinnipiac on the ropes in late February before losing by three.
Hot coach: Joe Gallo, Merrimack Warriors. The 45-year-old Gallo won conference titles at Merrimack at the D-II and NEC levels, and now has posted a 14–6 league mark in the school’s first season in the MAAC. The Warriors are the best defensive team in the league this season.
Hot-seat coach: Kevin Baggett, Rider Broncs. This looks like 13 straight years without winning the MAAC tourney under Baggett.
Player to watch: Amarri Monroe, Quinnipiac. The 6' 7" forward is third in the league in scoring (17.7), first in rebounding (9.2) and second in steals (2.3). He’s had eight straight double-doubles, six of which were 20-10 games.
Minutes pick: Manhattan (27). Quinnipiac doesn’t have a great history in this tournament, with a 6–10 all-time record. If the Jaspers get past the Iona Gaels in the first round, they should take on The Q in the semifinals as a dangerous underdog. This could be Manhattan’s first NCAA bid in a decade.
Mid-American (28), March 13–15, Cleveland
Conference KenPom rank: 23rd out of 31.
Top seed: Akron Zips. They dominated the league, going 17–1 and winning it by three games. Guard tandem Tavari Johnson and Nate Johnson have been together for three years under John Groce, winning 71 games.
Dark horse: Bowling Green Falcons. Akron’s quarterfinal opponent has a 14–17 record, just 8–10 in the league, but Bowling Green has won four of its last five and lost to Akron by three in their only meeting, on Jan. 3.
Hot coach: Travis Steele, Miami RedHawks. He got a quick hook after four seasons at Xavier and has bounced back well at Miami. The RedHawks have improved from 12–20 to 15–17 to this season’s 23–8, the most victories at the school since they won 24 with Wally Szczerbiak in 1999.
Hot-seat coach: Stan Heath, Eastern Michigan Eagles. Heath is 30 games under .500 in four seasons at EMU. The current team is 16–15, his best record yet, but under NCAA investigation federal scrutiny for potential gambling irregularities on EMU games.
Player to watch: Nate Johnson, Akron. He’s averaging 13.5 points in a balanced Akron attack, while also producing 5.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game.
Minutes pick: Akron (29). Groce has won this tournament twice before at Akron and twice at Ohio. His .400 batting average in MAC league tournaments is strong enough to ride with again this season, especially as the No. 1 seed.
MEAC (30), March 12–15, Norfolk, Va.
Conference KenPom rank: 29th out of 31.
Top seed: The Norfolk State Spartans (21–10, 11–3) are the top seed and playing the tournament in their hometown. They won the tiebreaker over the South Carolina State Bulldogs, finishing three games ahead of the Delaware State Hornets. This league plays at the fastest tempo of any in Division I, so if you want to see players get up and down, tune in.
Dark horse: Delaware State. They won eight of the last 11 games and split on the season with potential semifinal opponent South Carolina State.
Hot coach: It should be Robert Jones, who has four straight 20-win seasons at Norfolk State and has taken the Spartans to the Big Dance twice. But it might be Erik Martin of South Carolina State, who played and coached under Bob Huggins. Martin has taken SCSU from 5–26 to 14–18 to 18–12.
Hot-seat coach: Kevin Broadus has had four straight losing seasons with the Morgan State Bears.
Player to watch: Brian Moore Jr., Norfolk State. The Murray State Racers transfer comes in averaging 24 points in three March games, having made 22 out of 36 two-point shots and 19 out of 21 free throws. Moore scored 33 on Big South champion High Point, 24 on Stanford and 18 on Tennessee earlier this season.
Minutes pick: South Carolina State (31). A rubber match with Norfolk State for the title would be fun. SCSU won the meeting March 1 by three points, and Norfolk won the first matchup by two in overtime on Feb. 1.
Mountain West (32), March 12–15, Las Vegas
Conference KenPom rank: Sixth out of 31.
Top seed: New Mexico Lobos. This was their first Mountain West title since 2013, putting the league’s best defense on the floor. With nonconference wins over UCLA and VCU, the Lobos figure to be the Mountain West’s only sure at-large team going into this tourney.
Dark horse: The Colorado State Rams are the hot team, on a seven-game winning streak that earned them the No. 2 seed. But the Rams haven’t won this tournament since 2003.
Bubble teams: The Utah State Aggies, San Diego State Aztecs, Boise State Broncos and Colorado State. More than one of the bubble teams will get in, but what happens in Vegas may be the deciding factor. The San Diego State–Boise State quarterfinal game has the air of an elimination game.
Hot coach: New Mexico’s Richard Pitino could be in the mix at both Virginia and Villanova. He’s won 73 games the past three seasons and has the Lobos headed to consecutive NCAA berths for the first time since 2013–14.
Hot-seat coach: Vance Walberg, Fresno State Bulldogs. It’s just Walberg’s first season, but it’s been a disaster. Fresno State is 6–25, 2–18 in the league, and suspended three players for a reported gambling investigation.
Player to watch: Nique Clifford, CSU. He’s done everything for the Rams, ranking second in the league in scoring (18.4), second in rebounds (9.7) and fifth in assists (4.4). The fifth-year senior from Colorado Springs is averaging 25.7 points per game thus far in March.
Minutes pick: Colorado State (33). Hot and hungry team needs multiple wins here to lock up a bid and has a favorable draw. A potential semifinal game with Utah State looms large after CSU blew out the Aggies on March 1 in Fort Collins, Colo.
SWAC (34), March 11–15, Atlanta
Conference KenPom rank: 30th out of 31.
Top seed: The Southern Jaguars (20–11, 15–3) won their first regular-season title since 2014, streaking to a 10–0 league start and 11–1 at home. Southern’s disruptive defense leads the league in steal and block percentage.
Dark horse: The third-seeded Bethune-Cookman Wildcats closed the regular season on a five-game winning streak, getting back guard Brayon Freeman on Saturday after a 14-game absence.
Hot coach: Mo Williams, Jackson State Tigers. The former Alabama star and NBA veteran is in his third season at Jackson State. After an 0–13 start playing a succession of guarantee games on the road, the Tigers won 14 of their last 18 and locked down the No. 3 seed.
Hot-seat coach: George Ivory, Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils. They’re 3–27, and this is another place with an ongoing gambling investigation. But here’s what might save Ivory: He’s also the acting athletic director, and might not feel like firing himself.
Player to watch: Trey Thomas, Bethune-Cookman. The junior guard takes 32% of Bethune’s shots, and makes enough of them for the Wildcats to go 13–5 in the league. He also spends a lot of time at the foul line, with 149 free throw attempts this season.
Minutes pick: Jackson State (35). Provided they don’t get tripped up by the nemesis Florida A&M Rattlers in a potential quarterfinal matchup, the Tigers have a great chance of at least making the final. They could have a raucous crowd backing them in Atlanta for that game.
Western Athletic (36), March 11–15, Las Vegas
Conference KenPom rank: 15th out of 31.
Top seed: The Utah Valley Wolverines tore through the WAC with a 15–1 record, losing only to Grand Canyon on the road on Feb. 1. They are a potent offensive team, preferring to pound the ball inside with a big lineup. The line they prefer to shoot from is the foul line, not the three-point line.
Dark horse: Grand Canyon Antelopes. The winners of the last two WAC tournaments are well-positioned for a three-peat, holding down the No. 2 seed. A one-point overtime loss to the Abilene Christian Wildcats is the Lopes’ only blemish in their last seven games.
Hot coach: Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon. This is a good mid-major gig, but The Minutes is shocked that Drew is still there for his fifth year. He’s 117–39 at GCU.
Hot-seat coach: Jon Judkins, Utah Tech Trailblazers. The last-place team in the league hasn’t won a game since Jan. 11. This is the program’s fifth straight losing season.
Player to watch: JaKobe Coles, Grand Canyon. The big man transferred in from TCU and has become a focal point of the Antelopes’ offense since the loss of guard Tyon Grant-Foster. Coles is averaging 14.3 points and 5.9 rebounds and needs to stay assertive for GCU to win this tournament.
Minutes pick: Grand Canyon (37). No doubting Drew in this event, where he’s won six straight games and nine of his last 10.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Ed Schilling (38), Pepperdine Waves. He’s in his first season as head coach, after last being a head coach at Wright State from 1998–2003. Between those two jobs he was an assistant at four different schools and the head coach at a high school in Indianapolis. This season has been a continuation of past Pepperdine struggles—until the West Coast tournament. The Waves entered the tourney 11–21, 4–14 in the league, and have pulled three straight comeback upsets. They’ve eliminated Portland, Oregon State and Santa Clara on consecutive days to reach a David vs. Goliath WCC semifinal against regular-season champion Saint Mary’s. These are the March runs The Minutes lives for.
Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work
Fred Hoiberg (39), Nebraska Cornhuskers. On Feb. 18, the Huskers were 17–9 and on the cusp of securing an NCAA bid. Then they lost on the road to the last-place Penn State Nittany Lions. And they lost at home to Michigan in an unsightly rock fight. And they lost at home to a bad Minnesota Gophers team. And they lost in double overtime at Ohio State. And they lost at home to a disappointing Iowa. That’s five straight to end the season, plummeting from the right side of the NCAA bubble to eliminated from the Big Ten tournament. Ouch.
Buzzer Beater
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde Minutes: Men’s Basketball Championship Week Preview.
