Ford Motor guided to a tougher 2025 late Wednesday after easily beating earnings estimates for the fourth quarter, amid shifting Trump tariff headlines. Ford stock extended its slide below key levels on Thursday.
Five analysts cut price targets on Ford stock after the Q4 report, FactSet shows. No one raised. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan took the price target on underperform-rated Ford shares from $9 to $8, a Street low.
There isn't much to "hang your hat on" in 2025, Langan said in a note to clients, according to TheFly.com. He reportedly said EBIT (earnings before income and taxes) is weighted to the second half of the year and relies on $1 billion of cost reductions, while cash flow guidance is notably weak.
On Jan. 31, General Motors gave strong outlook after a Q4 earnings beat. But car stocks wilted after President Donald Trump implemented 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, while pausing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. China retaliated with 10%-15% tariffs on imports like large engine cars.
GM and Ford have significant exposure to those neighboring countries.
Ford Earnings And Outlook
For Q4, Ford reported earnings of 39 cents per share on revenue of $48.2 billion. Year over year, Ford earnings jumped 34.5%, coming in above FactSet consensus for 29 cents. Revenue rose 5%, also outpacing views for $47.396 billion.
The year-ago quarter included an autoworkers strike.
For 2025, Ford guided adjusted EBIT (earnings before income and taxes) of $7 billion-$8.5 billion. Analysts now expect $8.9 billion, down 12.6% from 2024, FactSet shows.
The company guided 2025 adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion-$4.5 billion. Analysts now expect $4.3 billion, down 36%.
"The guidance presumes headwinds related to market factors," the Ford earnings release said.
Ford Stock, GM Stock, EV Stocks
Shares of Ford sank 7.4% to 9.27 in Thursday's stock market action. Ford stock plunged further below the 50-day moving average, which remains below the 200-day average.
F stock hasn't traded above the 200-day line since last July, when it sank on weak earnings.
On Thursday, Sherry House took over as Ford's new chief financial officer.
GM stock edged higher on Thursday, below the 200-day line.
Tesla, on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist, gave up 1%. Its EV sales tumbled in Germany and across Europe in January after a tough 2024.
Among other car stocks showing leadership in the current market, XPeng rallied 3.3% on Thursday, near highs. The China stock posted strong EV sales during the typically slow Lunar New Year season.
EV Shift, Trump Tariffs And More
GM, Ford and other automakers continue to make an unsteady shift to electric vehicles. In 2024, EV sales rebounded in the U.S. market after a slow start to the year.
In January, Ford reported a 20% jump in U.S. EV and hybrid sales vs. a 9% decline for traditional vehicles with internal-combustion engines. In Q4, Ford narrowed EV losses to $1.4 billion, the earnings report showed late Wednesday.
Other items to watch include the U.S.-China trade war, as well as threatened (but delayed) tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trade wars tend to hurt production for carmakers and raise prices for car buyers.
President Trump has also vowed to end the $7,500 EV tax credit. Other areas that Ford stock investors may watch include bloated inventories and generally steep car pricing.
Please follow Aparna Narayanan on X @IBD_Aparna for more coverage.
