Australia may be about to experience a rare third La Niña this spring, but the outlook is sunnier – literally – for parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued an alert on Tuesday for above-average rainfall through to December for around two-thirds of the nation, including the east coast, due to a negative Indian Ocean dipole and warmer than average waters in Australia’s north.
But there are large parts of the country, particularly in the west, that are likely to escape prolonged wet weather in the warmer months.
“September to November rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia, but below median for western Tasmania and parts of north-western and south-western Western Australia,” the BoM projected in its latest climate outlook.
“September to November maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the tropics, parts of the west and Tasmania, but below median for much of the southern mainland.”
The Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said Western Australia and parts of South Australia were likely to experience the least rain due to lower median rainfall in spring.
He said the average rainfall in Perth during spring was around 150mm, typically one of the driest times in the south-west.
“Western Tasmania, on the other hand, is usually quite wet,” he said, averaging around 400mm in some parts.
“Everywhere over the eastern half of Australia except western Tasmania has above average chance of exceeding high rainfall. But that doesn’t mean it’ll be raining constantly over the next three months.”
He said southern and south-western Australia was showing a dry signal due to the expectation Australia would be in a predominantly positive phase of the southern annular mode – a climate driver that refers to the north-south movement of strong westerly winds.
“Western Australia and southern Australia, Adelaide or western Tasmania will be better bets for dry weather,” he said.
The chief executive of the Tourism Council Western Australia, Evan Hall, is gearing up for a bumper six months.
“Perth, our gateway to Western Australia, is Australia’s capital city with the most days of sunshine,” he said. “It’s a pretty safe bet, even if you’re coming in winter, you’re going to get good weather.
“If you want to escape the cold and wet, head up to Broome and Kimberley, and the Coral Coast. For spring and summer the place to be is the south-west, Margaret River, Albany … its forests and wine, and great for self-driving road trips.”
As for warm, sunny beaches? Hall said Western Australia’s south coast would get sunshine without blistering heat come summer, while Rottnest Island was an easy day trip from Perth.
“It’s very reliable; you’d be pretty unlucky to get bad weather,” he said.
“We’re expecting to get a lot of families coming through wanting to have that classic beachside holiday and you’re not going to get rained on.”
The Tourism Tasmania CEO, John Fitzgerald, said many people would be “surprised to know” Hobart was Australia’s second driest capital city.
“Tasmania’s west coast temperate rainforest receives four times more rainfall than the southern capital,” he said.
“Accommodation and experiences are filling up fast.”
If La Niña develops, the wet weather will last well into summer, bringing further rainfall for eastern and central Australia and a drenched start to the northern wet season.
It’s a huge blow to tourism sectors already battered by Covid lockdowns and recent floods in Queensland and New South Wales.
The Queensland Tourism Industry Council CEO, Brett Fraser, said continued weather extremities were concerning for the state’s tourist operators.
“The success of our visitor economy relies on certainty and stability. Extreme fluctuations in weather conditions are far from ideal,” he said.
“Like so many industries, the tourism sector is still recovering from the challenges of the last three years. Any new challenges on the horizon understandably have our operators on alert.
“For now, our industry will continue to monitor the situation closely.”
Domensino said one “silver lining” was the projected rain would dampen the chances of bushfires.
“The rain we have seen will suppress the fire danger this season, so at least we know we won’t getting a repeat of black summer,” he said.
