Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa.
Here are the three things to take away from today’s Europe Live blog:
US president Donald Trump announced his plans to end the war in Ukraine, after a lengthy phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin in which the pair agreed to start the talks “immediately,” and invited each other to their countries (18:18). His comments prompted European leaders to call for Ukrainian interests to be protected (18:43, 19:00, 19:04), while Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy said diplomatically that “no one wants peace more than Ukraine” (19:09). The development comes just hours after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told European leaders that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on European security, he said returning to pre-2014 Ukraine borders was “unrealistic,” and ruled out a NATO membership for Kyiv (15:07).
EU trade ministers spoke today about their plans for a united response to US administration’s proposal to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on 12 March. Irish deputy prime minister and foreign minister Simon Harris said that “it was encouraging to hear about the engagement with the US that has started and to know that further meetings are planned,” as he described “a window of opportunity” to resolve the problem before the tariffs kick in (19:40 and 19:43).
Talks to form Austria’s first coalition government led by the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) collapsed on Wednesday after negotiations with the conservative People’s Party (OVP) had already ground to a halt, with each side blaming the other. The ball is now in the president van den Bellen’s court. Most likely either a centrist attempt to form a government will be revived or the Alpine republic will head towards a snap election with polls suggesting the FPÖ’s lead over other parties would grow (15:53).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today. See you again tomorrow.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
I will be wrapping up this Europe Live blog very shortly, but if you want to follow further developments in the US and the latest from Donald Trump’s White House, you can do so on our US live blog here:
I will pick up more European reactions tomorrow, when Nato defence ministers also meeting in Brussels, so we will have plenty to go through.
State of emergency on second Greek island as tremors continue
in Athens
Greek authorities have declared a state of emergency on Amorgos, the Cycladic isle east of Santorini, as successive earthquakes continued to rattle the southern Aegean today.
Amid a noticeable surge of tremors in waters between the two isles – and fears of a much more powerful quake to come – the country’s civil protection ministry announced that Amorgos’ municipal authority would be put on a state of high alert. A Red Cross team has arrived on the island. Psychosocial support for islanders whose lives have been upended by the unprecedented seismic crisis is also being provided with therapists dispatched to the island this afternoon.
Early this morning in the space of an hour, the outpost was shaken by five tremors with the strongest measuring 5 on the Richter scale. A further 10 earthquakes all with a magnitude of more than four, were recorded between 10:29 AM and 12:02 PM.
One local described her nerves as “being shot”. “Its very difficult to sleep,” she said, “and its being going on for 17 days.”
A similar state of emergency was declared on Santorini on 6 February to confront the fallout from a geological phenomenon that, according to natural disaster experts, has taken Greece into “uncharted waters.”
Over 1,100 quakes measuring in excess of 3 on the Richter scale have shaken the islands since 1 February, seismologists say. Among the urgent measures ordered by officials in Athens, who have also dispatched specially trained rescue teams, medics and military units to the islands, is the closure of schools.
“We’re dealing with an unprecedented phenomenon in world history, a sequence of earthquakes that we have never seen before,” said Ethymios Lekkas, Greece’s top natural disaster expert at the National Academy of Sciences. “We still don’t know with certainty what the faultlines, are or the position of the epicentres [of the tremors] … and without these facts we cannot foresee or exclude any outcome this phenomenon may have. We must and we ought to be ready for any eventuality.”
Both US, Ireland 'will end up poorer' if Trump imposed tariffs, Irish finance minister warns
in Dublin
Irish finance minister Paschal Donohoe has said both the US and Ireland “will end up poorer” if Donald Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on exports.
Ireland, Germany and Italy are the only three EU states in a trade surplus with the US but Ireland is seen as particularly vulnerable because of the high number of US multinationals especially pharmaceutical companies exporting back to the US but booking profits in Ireland.
Speaking at the launch of the OECD survey on Ireland, Donohoe said Ireland’s case was the “flip side” of the one being made by the EU, restating leaders’ preference for negotiation.
“We will be making the point … how both sides of the Atlantic applying tariffs to each other over time will make both of us poorer, and acknowledging that if there are, as there are genuine issues there that President Trump is clearly articulating, that I will make the case for dealing with those in through negotiation through the European Union and the US, and also through organisations like the OECD that are present here today,” he said.
EU trade ministers see 'window for negotiation' ahead of Trump tariffs deadline
Separately, EU trade ministers spoke today about their plans for a united response to US administration’s proposal to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on 12 March.
Ireland, one of the countries most worried about any prospect of a trade war with the US, said in its readout that there “was a strong consensus … on the need for EU unity and solidarity on trade issues,” and backing for the European Commission to handle any talks.
Irish deputy prime minister and foreign minister Simon Harris said that “it was encouraging to hear about the engagement with the US that has started and to know that further meetings are planned.”
“There is a window for negotiation ahead of the 12 March deadline,” he said.
“Ireland is keenly aware of the perils of further escalation. We consider that it is in our collective interests that we seek to work with the new administration and to highlight the powerful, mutual benefit of the transatlantic relationship,” he added.
Former European diplomats draw analogies with Munich 1938
While current heads of governments and diplomats try to find a form of words that would convey their position in a diplomatic way, former leaders are clearly more outspoken about Trump’s plan to negotiate peace in Ukraine with Putin.
Former Swedish prime minister and former foreign minister Carl Bildt:
It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started. Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938. That Munich ended very bad anyhow.
Former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis:
No Nato membership, no boots on the ground? Sounds like abandoning Ukraine. Delegates are flying to Munich not to negotiate, but to deliver @ZelenskyyUa the bad news. If this deal produces a piece of paper guaranteeing peace for our time, we should call it Munich 2.
Zelenskyy 'wants to make peace,' Trump says after their phone call
US president Donald Trump has just posted on social media with an update on his conversation with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
He said the conversation went “very well,” and that “he, like president Putin, wants to make peace.”
He confirms further talks with Ukrainian leaders will be held during the Munich Security Conference this Friday, which will be led on the US side by vice-president JD Vance and state secretary Marco Rubio.
Here is what he said:
I just spoke to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. The conversation went very well. He, like President Putin, wants to make PEACE.
We discussed a variety of topics having to do with the War, but mostly, the meeting that is being set up on Friday in Munich, where Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the Delegation. I am hopeful that the results of that meeting will be positive.
It is time to stop this ridiculous War, where there has been massive, and totally unnecessary, DEATH and DESTRUCTION. God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine!
'No one wants peace more than Ukraine,' Zelenskyy says after phone call with Trump
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just posted on social media after his call with US president Donald Trump, in which he told him about his earlier conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and plans for immediate peace talks on Ukraine.
Zelenskyy said he talked with Trump about “opportunities to achieve peace,” and he was working with the US “charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace.”
The two agreed to stay in touch and plan further meetings.
This is what he said in full:
I had a meaningful conversation with @POTUS.
We long talked about opportunities to achieve peace, discussed our readiness to work together at the team level, and Ukraine’s technological capabilities—including drones and other advanced industries. I am grateful to President Trump for his interest in what we can accomplish together.
We also spoke about my discussion with @SecScottBessent and the preparation of a new document on security, economic cooperation, and resource partnership. President Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin.
No one wants peace more than Ukraine. Together with the U.S., we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace. As President Trump said, let’s get it done. We agreed to maintain further contact and plan upcoming meetings.
Europe to offer guarantees for Ukraine even without immediate Nato membership, French foreign minister says
French Foreign Minister said Europe would play its role in offering security guarantees for Ukraine even if Nato membership is not immediate.
Speaking in Paris at a meeting of foreign ministers from Ukraine and its allies, he also said there will be no just peace for Ukraine in its war with Russia without Europeans being associated with negotiations, and that it was up to Ukrainians to decide the parameters of a peace accord.
Europe ready for discussions, but no decision without Ukraine, German foreign minister says
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Wednesday it was very important that Europe is united with regard to Ukraine and that it must be prepared for negotiations, Reuters reported.
Speaking in Paris at a meeting of foreign ministers from Ukraine and its allies, she also said there could be no decision about Ukraine in its war with Russia without Ukrainian input.
“We have been ready for the last three years for peace, unlike Russian president Putin,” she said.
Ukraine's Zelenskyy spoke by phone with US Trump
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke by phone with US president Donald Trump for around an hour on Wednesday evening, the Ukrainian president’s office told Reuters.
The development comes after an earlier call between Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin, during which the two agreed to start negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, according to Trump’s social media post.
Updated
Nothing must be decided without Ukraine, Spanish foreign minister says
Spanish foreign minister Jose Manuel Albares said on Wednesday that nothing must be decided on Ukraine without Ukraine and Europe, Reuters reported.
Speaking in Paris at a meeting of foreign ministers from Ukraine and its allies, he also said “we need a just peace for everyone” and that a war of aggression cannot be allowed to succeed.
Polish defence minister says US comments give clarity on Ukraine's Nato membership
Polish deputy prime minister and defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polish media that Hegseth’s words earlier today made it clear to him that Ukraine will not be invited to join Nato.
“There was no invitation until now, and it is clear after this statement that there won’t be any. If the most important country does not agree with it, there is not point getting our hopes up that this invite will somehow come anyway,” he said quoted by PAP.
He welcomed the clarity on the membership, saying:
“I think it’s actually good this was said … there had been no agreement [on membership prospects] from other countries anyway … and now we have a clear answer,” he said.
He said that Poland and other European countries should nevertheless “support these [Ukrainian] ambitions and not change their position,” as their interests are different to those of the US.
He also said that Poland was not planning to send any troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force, TVN24 reported.
Trump spoke with Putin, agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine, visit each other - what we know
US president Donald Trump has said in a social media post that he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Russian president Vladimir Putin earlier today and agreed to start “negotiations” on a peace deal for Ukraine “immediately.”
Trump said the leaders spoke about “Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar, and various other subjects,” including that the US and Russia “fought so successfully together in the second world war”.
In a series of comments likely to alarm European and Ukrainian leaders, he said that they “talked about the strengths of our respective nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together,” as the two agreed to “work together very closely, including visiting each other’s nations.”
He also thanked Putin for “his time and effort” in arranging the release of Marc Fogel, a Pennsylvania schoolteacher sentenced in Russia to 14 years on drug-trafficking charges.
The report comes just hours after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told European leaders that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on European security, he said returning to pre-2014 Ukraine borders was “unrealistic,” and ruled out a NATO membership for Kyiv.
Trump says spoke with Putin, will start peace talks on Ukraine 'immediately'
US president Donald Trump has just posted on Truth Social saying that he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Russian president Vladimir Putin and agreed to start peace talks on Ukraine “immediately.”
He says that they both “want to stop the millions of deaths taking place” in the war, and bragged that Putin referred to his campaign motto of “common sense.”
He says the the two leaders will direct their teams to start talks immediately, and will begin by calling Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “inform him of the conversation.”
Here’s the post in full:
I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects.
We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations, and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II, remembering, that Russia lost tens of millions of people, and we, likewise, lost so many! We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together.
But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, “COMMON SENSE.” We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations.
We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now.
I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful.
Millions of people have died in a War that would not have happened if I were President, but it did happen, so it must end. No more lives should be lost! I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call, and for the release, yesterday, of Marc Fogel, a wonderful man that I personally greeted last night at the White House. I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!
We’re stepping away from Healey’s press conference for a second to cover breaking news…
European nations will step up in response to US call, UK defence secretary Healey says
He opens:
What we saw today is almost 50 countries making a clear commitment to continue stepping up their support for Ukraine in their fight for their freedom, future of their country, and our wider security.
He says countries involved remain committed to keep funding Ukraine to “increase pressure on Putin, to help force Putin to a negotiating table, to bring closer a durable peace.”
Responding to Hegseth’s comments, he notes Europeans noted “the US’s continued committment to this group, to Ukraine’s pursuit of a lasting peace, and the importance of security guarantees beyond.”
We heard his call for European nations to step up. We are and we will.
He notes that Nato allies pledged €40bn in military aid for Ukraine in 2024, and went on to deliver €50bn. The majority, nearly 60% of that aid, came from European nations, he says.
UK defence secretary John Healey’s conference starts now
He says he will report back to the press on behalf of the 46 countries involved in talks today.
Let’s hear what he’s got to say.
Denmark and US have 'different views' on Nato membership for Ukraine, Danish defence minister says
Nordic correspondent
Speaking after the meeting, the Danish defence minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, said that Denmark and the US have different views on Nato membership for Ukraine.
“It is the case that we have decided to offer Ukraine Nato membership, but it is also clear that we all have to agree if it is to happen,” he told TV2. “So in that way you can say that there is a discussion about what the future holds for Ukraine.”
Denmark, he added, will continue to support Ukraine and take on “even greater responsibility” in the coming year.
“Both in relation to the fight they are fighting, but not least in relation to securing more financial resources and donations. It is quite clear to me that Europe will have to take on an even greater responsibility to help Ukraine in 2025,” he said.
Note that these comments from Danish and Finnish ministers are from before the session with US defence secretary Hegseth – let’s see what they have to say afterwards, given the marked shift in tone from the US.
We will bring you the latest here.
Finnish defence minister calls for increase in support for Ukraine
Nordic correspondent
On his way into the meeting with Hegseth earlier, Finnish defence minister Antti Häkkänen said now is the time to increase support for Ukraine and that the US played a central role in that.
“Now is the right time to increase support for Ukraine,” he told Helsingin Sanomat, adding that European defence industry production must be rapidly increased.
Asked about US commitment to Ukraine under Donald Trump, he replied: “We should keep our heads down.”
“Of course the US plays a key role in Nato, for Nato’s credibility,” he said.
Saying he was optimistic about continued support for Ukraine by the US, he said he had agreed to meet Hegseth at a bilateral meeting on Thursday where they would have a “more detailed discussion on burden-sharing”.
Flight costs from France to rise after changes to air tax
But as we wait, let me bring you the news that the cost of flights from France will rise next month when the government more than doubles its “solidarity tax” on tickets.
The French government has said the increases are fair on ecological and fiscal grounds but critics say it will hit France’s ability to compete globally.
Airlines are expected to pass the cost of the tax hike on to passengers but Air France has estimated it will cost the company about €100m (£83m) at a time when the airline is recovering from Covid losses. Ryanair has threatened to reduce flights to and from the country’s airports.
Kim Willsher in Paris has the story:
UK defence secretary to speak to press soon after Ukraine meeting in Brussels
UK defence secretary John Healey, who chaired today’s meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at which Hegseth spoke about the new US administration’s view on Ukrainian and European defence, is expected to address the press soon.
You can watch the live stream at the top and below, but I will bring you the top lines here.
US presented Ukraine with draft deal on natural resources, Zelenskyy says
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just said that he had productive and constructive discussions with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and was given a first draft of a potential agreement on natural resources, Reuters is reporting.
Zelenskyy was quoted as saying that Ukraine was now studying the draft, with hopes that a deal could be reached at the Munich conference later this week.
He said they did not discuss natural resources in Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.
Danish defence minister to speak separately with US Hegseth on Arctic
Nordic correspondent
Earlier this morning, the Danish defence minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, said that Hegseth had requested a bilateral meeting with him before the meeting Nato’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
“He has asked to meet with me, and I have agreed to that. It will not be a long meeting, but a greeting meeting,” he told TV2.
He said he did not plan to discuss Greenland with him, but did expect to talk about the Arctic overall. “I think we will touch on the entire situation in and around the Arctic, where we share the concern expressed by the Americans,” he said.
Hegseth's comments on Ukraine, Nato, and European security - video
US no longer ‘primarily focused’ on Europe’s security, says Pete Hegseth - first report
Defence and security editor
Donald Trump’s newly appointed defence secretary told allies on his first international trip that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on European security and that Europe would have to take the lead in defending Ukraine.
Pete Hegseth, speaking to defence ministers at a lunchtime meeting in Brussels, said Europe had to provide “the overwhelming share” of future military aid to Kyiv – and recognise that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was unrealistic.
The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe” – though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.
Our first story:
Far right-led Austrian coalition talks collapse
We will return to Hegseth’s comments soon, but let’s briefly take a look at events elsewhere as talks to form Austria’s first coalition government led by the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) collapsed on Wednesday after negotiations with the conservative People’s Party (OVP) had already ground to a halt, with each side blaming the other, Reuters reported.
The Eurosceptic, Russia-friendly FPÖ had been seeking to lead a government for the first time since it was founded in the 1950s under a leader who had been a prominent Nazi.
The FPÖ came first in September’s parliamentary election with about 29% of vote, but was only tasked with forming a government last month once a centrist attempt to do so without it failed. The OVP was its only potential coalition partner.
“Just now, FPÖ leader ... Herbert Kickl informed President Alexander Van der Bellen that the coalition talks with the OVP have failed,” the FPÖ said in a statement moments after Kickl met Van der Bellen in the president’s office.
Reuters notes that the ball is now in Van der Bellen’s court. Most likely either a centrist attempt to form a government will be revived or the Alpine republic will head towards a snap election with polls suggesting the FPÖ’s lead over other parties would grow.
Updated
US defence secretary comments on Ukraine - summary
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has just addressed the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at a meeting in Brussels, and here is a summary:
“Bloodshed must stop, this war must end,” he insisted (14:42).
He warned that returning to pre-2014 Ukraine borders was “unrealistic,” and “chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering” (14:43).
He said that “the US does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement” with Russia.
He ruled out any US deployment to Ukraine or covering peacekeeping forces there with Article 5 Nato guarantees, saying it would be up to European and non-European troops to organise the forces (14:47).
He urged Europeans to “provide the overwhelming share” of aid to Ukraine and level with their citizens “about the threat facing Europe” (14:48).
In a stark warning, he said that “stark strategic realities prevent the US from being primarily focused on the security of Europe” as it looks at “threats to our homeland,” including from China (14:50).
He acknowledged some action taken by European allies, name-checking Sweden and Poland, but said “more must still be done” (14:51).
He insisted that the US remains committed to Nato, but “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency” (14:52).
Updated
'We are and we will' step up, UK defence secretary responds
UK defence secretary John Healey responds on behalf of European Nato countries and the broader Ukraine Defence Contact Group:
We hear you, your commitment to Nato, to Article 5, to a sovereign Ukraine, and to your defence partnership with Europe.
We also hear your concerns.
On stepping up for Ukraine, we are and we will.
On stepping up for European security, we are and we will.
You’ve just spoken about peace through strength. We are 50 nations-strong here, all determined to put an end to Putin’s war, and to do so together.
Updated
US committed to Nato, but won’t tolerate ‘imbalanced relationship,’ US defence secretary says
Closing his speech, Hegseth insists that the US remains committed to Nato and to partnership with Europe, “full stop.”
But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.
Rather, our relationship will prioritise empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security.
Honesty will be our policy going forward, but only in the spirit of solidarity.
He ends his speech here.
Europe stepping up to the task, but we need more, Hegseth says
US defence secretary then goes on to say that in his first week he has seen “promising signs that Europe sees the threat, understands what needs to be done, and is stepping up to the task,” pointedly praising Sweden and Poland.
“But these are just the first steps. More must still be done,” he says, asking Europeans to “step up fulfilling the commitments you have made.”
Our transatlantic alliance has endured for decades, and we fully expect it will be sustained for the generations to come. But this won’t just happen.
It will require our European allies to step into the arena and take ownership of conventional security on the continent.
Updated
US cannot be primarily focused on security in Europe, US defence secretary says
In a stark warning to European leaders, Hegseth says that he wants to “directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being primarily focused on security in Europe.”
“The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland. We must – and we are – focusing on securing our own borders,” he says.
He says the US faces “a peer competitor in the Communist Chinese with the capability and intend to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.”
“The US is prioritising deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognising the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail.
He adds:
As the United States prioritises its attention to these threats, European allies must lead from the front.
Updated
Europe must provide ‘overwhelming share’ of aid to Ukraine, US defence secretary says
Continuing his speech in Brussels, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth says that “safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO,” and Europe “must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.”
“This means donating more ammunition and equipment, leveraging comparative advantages, expanding your defence industrial base, and importantly, levelling with your citizens about the threat facing Europe,” he says.
Updated
US will help with energy production to defund ‘Russian war machine,’ US defence secretary says
Hegseth continues:
To further enable effective diplomacy and drive down energy prices which fund the Russian war machine, President Trump is unleashing American energy production and encouraging other nations to do the same. Lower energy prices coupled with more effective enforcement of energy sanctions will help bring Russia to the table.
Nato membership for Ukraine 'not a realistic outcome,' US defence secretary says
Presenting the US position on Ukraine, the defence secretary says that any “durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war won’t begin again”.
“The US does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” he adds.
He says that any security guarantees should not be provided through Nato membership, “but instead must be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” who would not be covered by Article 5 Nato guarantees.
He also rules out the deployment of US troops to Ukraine.
Returning to pre-2014 Ukraine borders ‘unrealistic’ and ‘illusory’ goal, US defence secretary says
Continuing his speech, US defence secretary Peter Hegseth calls for “realistic assessment of the battlefield.”
We want a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.
Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.
Updated
‘Bloodshed must stop, this war must end,’ US defence secretary says
Speaking ahead of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group’s meeting in Brussels, US secretary defence Pete Hegseth says the conference is “at a critical moment,” and insists the US view is clear:
The bloodshed must stop, and this war must end.
He says that for US president Donald Trump “stopping the fighting and reaching and enduring peace is a top priority,” and he intends to “bring both Russia and Ukraine to the table.”
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth speaks on Ukraine
Let’s hear what he’s got to say about Donald Trump’s new US administration’s plans for Ukraine.
Critical meeting on Ukraine defence gets underway
The Ukraine Defence Contact Group, including US defence secretary Pete Hegseth on his first trip to Europe, is meeting in Brussels today.
And they are starting their first session right now.
We have a live stream for you at the top and below, and will cover the key lines in the blog.
Senate leader takes Romanian presidency until May elections
And it’s not just Greece: Romania’s liberal party leader Ilie Bolojan, part of the ruling coalition, took office as interim president today after the pro-European incumbent Klaus Iohannis, threatened with impeachment, resigned earlier in the week, AFP reports.
Bolojan, the Senate president and liberal party (PNL) leader, will stay in office until a new presidential election is held in May.
Greece gets new president
in Athens
The former House speaker and ruling New Democracy party MP Kostantinos Tasoulas was elected Greek president today when 160 deputies cast ballots in his favour in the fourth and final round of the vote.
A total of 276 MPs had participated in the vote. He replaces the country’s first female president, Katerina Sakellaropoulou, when he is officially sworn in on 13 March.
Nominated for the post by prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the veteran politician had been assured victory if he secured a simple majority of 151 votes in the 300-member parliament. The centre right New Democracy party controls 156 seats.
Opponents included the prominent academic and former politician Tasos Giannitsis, backed by the main opposition Pasok party, Louka Katseli, a former national economy minister supported by the left-wing SYRIZA and New Left parties, and Kostas Kyriakou fielded by the far-right Niki party. Giannitsis picked up 34 votes, Katseli 29 and Kyriakou 14. A total of 24 MPs were absent and 39 declined to vote for any candidate.
Speaking after his election Tasoulas, who is also a former culture minister, highlighted the need for national unity.
“Regardless of individual disagreements, the invisible thread that units us must not be broken,” he said.
In a separate statement, prime minister Mitsotakis emphasised the president-elect was the right man for the right job. “He will rise to the high role of symbol of our national unity, as well as being a guarantor of democratic stability and constitutional continuity.”
From the outset Tasoulas’ nomination has been fraught with controversy with opposition parties deploring his nomination for being overtly political for a post that should be above party politics.
Confronted by an ascendant right, critics had seen Mitsotakis’ choice as a flagrant sop to traditionalists in New Democracy. Liberals had wanted to see Sakellaropoulou, a former high court justice, stay on.
Although widely praised for her decorum and moral compass, the outgoing president is thought to have caused consternation among conservatives and in the Greek Orthodox Church with her overt support for minority rights and gay marriage legislation championed by Mitsotakis, a self-described moderate, last year.
Europe has no leader to talk to Trump, AfD's Weidel says, rolling out her election pitch alongside Hungary's Viktor Orbán
Back to Budapest, where the Alternative für Deutschland’s co-leader Alice Weidel has just been speaking at a press conference with Viktor Orbán.
She said that “Europe is leaderless” when it comes to responding to Donald Trump and his threats of tariffs.
“It is important that Europe has someone sitting at the negotiating table. But Europe doesn’t have that because it is a very bureaucratic place, so the US has no one to talk to,” she said, in a likely swipe at European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.
She then criticised the EU for diverting from its free market roots and being overly-prescriptive in regulations and interfering with citizens’ lives, which she dismissed as “communism, which we thought we had overcome.”
She also said she wanted to “dispel the myth” that her party is extremist, claiming it was only portrayed as such to get excluded from mainstream politics, and “discredit and defame” it.
“We are the second strongest force nationwide; in East Germany we are the strongest force and growing. If we do not get into government in a week and a half, it’s because of this undemocratic firewall,” she said.
She said that her expectation for post-elections scenario was that CDU/CSU’s Friedrich Merz would establish an “unstable” coalition with the SPD and Greens, but find himself unable to deliver on his key manifesto commitments on migration.
“The voters would then jump ship and vote for the AfD, the original,” she said.
If it all sounds to you like a pre-election rally, it’s kind of because it is: the German federal election is on 23 February.
AfD is currently polling second at around 21-22%, behind the conservative CDU/CSU at 30%, but ahead of Olaf Scholz’s SPD in at 16%, according to the Guardian’s tracker.
EU withdraws proposed rules on AI liability
Brussels correspondent
The EU executive is withdrawing proposed rules on artificial intelligence liability, one day after US vice-president JD Vance lambasted “excessive regulation” of the sector.
Publishing its work programme for 2025 on Wednesday, the European Commission said it would withdraw a draft directive on AI liability because it sees “no foreseeable agreement” between EU lawmakers in the Council of Ministers and European parliament. The Commission said it would “assess whether another proposal should be tabled or another type of approach chosen”.
The AI Liability Act, proposed in 2022, is separate from the broader AI Act, a sweeping law to regulate the technology that bans “unacceptable risks” and came into force last year. The draft AI liability directive is narrower in scope: it would introduce common rules for compensating people harmed by AI-enabled products and services.
Maroš Šefčovič, the European commissioner for trade and economic security, said the commission was withdrawing 37 draft laws deemed to have no chance of being agreed.
“We have seen these particular proposals are stuck for long, long years, so we have serious doubts that they would make progress this year,” he told reporters in Strasbourg.
He suggested member states and MEPs could rescue the contested AI liability proposal. “This is our invitation to the co-legislator to tell us: do you want to work on this liability proposal or not, or [do you think] we should simply look at it from different angles.
Vance told a summit in Paris on Tuesday that “excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it’s taking off”.
The EU executive has embarked on its own red-tape cutting initiative: the work plan was full of measures intended to “simplify” EU rules on companies.
Germany extends border controls for six months
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has just announced that Germany will extend the reinstatement of controls at all borders for six months amid a heated debate on migration ahead of the federal election in the country on 23 February.
“With the border controls, we are effectively pushing back irregular migration, the figures show this,” Scholz said, quoted by the German press.
Russia's 2024 defence budget exceeded all of Europe's combined, study says
Defence and security editor
Russia’s defence budget in 2024 exceeded all of Europe’s combined in purchasing power terms and it retains the ability to sustain its invasion of Ukraine at the current intensity for another year, according to a fresh analysis published today.
Calculations by the International Institute for Strategic Studies conclude that on a like for like basis, adjusted to take into account Russia’s lower input costs, Russia spent $462bn on defence against Europe’s $457bn.
Fenella McGerty, an analyst with the thinktank, said that Russia spent 6.68% of its GDP on defence in 2024, or $145.9bn in cash terms – and that it would increase further by 14% during 2025, a lower rate of increase than previous years.
Though Russia has lost at least 172,000 troops killed and 611,000 wounded since the start of the war – and 1,400 tanks during 2024 – recruitment and manufacturing remained sustainable.
“I think they can continue the current intensity of operations for the rest of this year,” said Ben Barry, a land warfare analyst. Nigel Gould-Davies, a former UK ambassador to Belarus, added that Russian president Vladimir Putin was hardening his position – “he’s not interested in a freezing of the conflict”.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is suffering from personnel shortages on the frontline as recruitment efforts falter. It was not uncommon for frontline units to be at 20% to 30% of target strength, the thinktank added.
Figures released by the thinktank also showed that Germany had overtaken the UK as the second biggest defence spender in Nato, after the US, during 2024, reflecting a big increase announced by chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to the war in Ukraine. All European defence budgets are up by 50% since 2014 in cash terms.
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And here’s a welcome tweet from Orbán …
Today I met the future of Germany. It was an honour to welcome you in Budapest, Chairwoman @Alice_Weidel! 🇭🇺🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/Wi7MgK1VJ9
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) February 12, 2025
Hungary's Orbán to meet AfD's Weidel in Budapest
There is also one other high-level meeting in Europe today, on the far right, as Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán is hosting the co-leader of the Alternative für Deutschland Alice Weidel to Budapest.
AFP notes that it will mark the first time that Orban, who has regularly received far-right party leaders over the years, will welcome a politician from AfD to Budapest.
The party is polling second ahead of the German federal election on 23 February, and recently won a vote in the German parliament for the first time, supporting the Christian conservatives’s motion on migration.
The talks between Orbán and Weidel will mainly focus on the “European migration crisis”, according to the Hungarian government.
The two will speak at a press conference at some point today, and I will keep an eye out for any news lines from their meetings.
But it’s clear not everyone in Budapest is happy to see her there.
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Western Africa to Canary Islands remains most active route for irregular migration in Europe, EU's external border agency says
in Dublin
Irregular migration from western Africa to the Canary Islands remained the most active route in Europe in January, new figures from the EU’s external border agency, Frontex, show.
Despite a year on year decline of 34% in numbers nearly 5,000 attempted the perilous boat journey.
However the Med still remains significant with more than 3,200 (up 43%) trying to cross to Italy while the Eastern Mediterranean was the second most active route with almost 3,500 arrivals via Turkey.
On the Channel route, the number of detections of people seeking to cross into the United Kingdom fell by more than a fifth from a year ago to slightly above 2,500.
US defence secretary Hegseth meeting with UK's Healey
In the opening, I mentioned a Brussels meeting of the Ukraine Defence Support Group, chaired today by the UK.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has just met with his British counterpart, John Healey, at the start of their talks today.
Trump's US merely a 'necessary partner,' less a true ally, Europeans say
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked a “remarkable shift” in Europeans’ view of the US, according to a survey, with even the most America-friendly no longer seeing Washington primarily as an ally.
The polling, of 11 EU member states plus Ukraine, Switzerland and the UK, found most people now regard the US as merely a “necessary partner” – even in countries such as Poland and Denmark that barely 18 months ago had considered the US an ally.
An average of 50% of Europeans across the member states surveyed view the US this way, the study revealed, with an average of only 21% seeing it as an ally, leading the report’s authors to urge a more “realistic, transactional” EU approach.
Jon Henley has the full story.
Morning opening: All eyes on Ukraine
After yesterday’s meeting on artificial intelligence, the focus now swiftly moves on to Ukraine.
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference starting on Friday, European leaders seem to be increasingly anxious about what’s next for Ukraine ahead of the third anniversary of full-scale aggression by Russia amid repeated suggestions that the new US administration wants to end the war as soon as possible.
US president Donald Trump once again suggested overnight that some progress is being made through backchannel negotiations.
Commenting on the release of Marc Fogel, the American teacher freed from a Russian prison, he hinted that his return could advance negotiations to end the war. “We were treated very nicely by Russia, actually. I hope that’s the beginning of a relationship where we can end that war,” he said.
As my colleague Pjotr Sauer notes, Russia’s latest engagement with the US will set off alarm bells in Kyiv, where the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, must navigate the new reality of a US administration that has opened dialogue with Moscow while at times displaying open hostility toward Ukraine.
In an interview with Fox News broadcast on Monday, Trump suggested that Ukraine “may be Russian some day”, just days before his vice-president JD Vance gears up to meet Zelenskyy, later this week in Munich.
Speaking to the Guardian, Zelenskyy warned that Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America as he sought to make a business case for helping Kyiv by suggesting opportunities for US companies in the reconstruction of postwar Ukraine and in the extraction of Ukrainian natural resources.
Today, EU foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Italy will meet in Paris to discuss their plans and security guarantees for Kyiv ahead of Munich. They will be joined by senior EU commissioners, Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha and UK’s David Lammy.
A separate high-level meeting will take place in Brussels in the so-called Rammstein format, attended by US defence secretary Pete Hegseth. Nato defence ministers are meeting tomorrow.
The scramble comes also after a new Danish intelligence report warned about the prospect of Russia launching a large-scale war against European members of Nato within five years, if the US no longer offers its support. It’s two years before it poses a credible threat to one or more members in the Baltic sea region, it added.
Overnight, Ukraine was attacked by Russia, again, with Zelenskyy posting on social media what can only be read in this context as a call for action and unity:
This Russian terror against Ukraine will not stop on its own.
Putin is not preparing for peace – he continues to kill Ukrainians and destroy cities.
Only strong actions and pressure on Russia can put an end to this terror. Right now, we need the unity and support of all our partners in the fight for a just end to this war.
It’s Wednesday, 12 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
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