With the AIADMK and the BJP firming up their alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the focus turns to this question: Does the alliance have to rope in any other party with a proven vote share?
The answer is in the affirmative if one is to go by the 2021 election results of select Assembly seats that constitute 16 Lok Sabha constituencies. In Tamil Nadu, six Assembly constituencies form one Lok Sabha constituency. Of the 16 Lok Sabha constituencies in question, with the 2021 Assembly election results kept in mind, the AIADMK-BJP combine was ahead of the DMK-led front in the constituencies of Pollachi, Coimbatore, the Nilgiris, Tiruppur and Tenkasi.
If the AIADMK-led coalition strikes a deal with the AMMK of T.T.V. Dhinakaran, it can bag Virudhunagar, where the 2021 results revealed that the difference between the two principal formations was around 45,000 votes, with the DMK-led front being ahead of the other. In the six Assembly segments of the Virudhunagar Lok Sabha constituency, the AMMK polled around 1.07 lakh votes. Likewise, in Tirunelveli, the inclusion of Mr. Dhinakaran’s party can turn the tables in favour of the AIADMK, as the AMMK polled around 62,000 votes in 2021, whereas the DMK-led combine was ahead of its rival by about 35,000 votes.
In Sivaganga, the AMMK’s presence can help the AIADMK-led front wipe out the gap almost. Thoothukudi, too, presents a similar picture, though the DMK-led front will be far better placed here than in Sivaganga.
In seven out of the remaining eight constituencies, including Kanniyakumari, Tiruchi, Ramanthapuram and South Chennai, the DMK and its allies are having a clear edge and only a drastic swing against them can do wonders for the AIADMK-led front. As witnessed in 2019, the race in Vellore can be pretty close, going by what was witnessed two years later in the Assembly segments that form the Lok Sabha seat.
As regards its allies, the AIADMK has been opposed to taking the AMMK into its fold. To confound the situation, it does not want any rapprochement with its former coordinator, O. Panneerselvam, and its former interim general secretary, V.K. Sasikala, either. Meanwhile, Mr. Panneerselvam and Mr. Dhinakaran have planned to participate in a demonstration together in Theni on August 1.
Just as the AMMK’s inclusion may be useful to the AIADMK-led coalition, the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), headed by veteran actor Kamal Haasan, can make a qualitative difference to the DMK-led front in Coimbatore, where the party had polled over 1.61 lakh votes in 2021. In south Chennai, it can widen the gap further as it had netted 1.35 lakh votes. In Tiruppur and Pollachi, the MNM can bring down the margin, though it alone may not be able to ensure the victory of the DMK-led coalition.
