Would you fly overseas, interstate, or even around your own city in an aircraft that had no pilot?
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told Bloomberg in February that his company, which is the world’s leading commercial jetliner manufacturer, is actively working on introducing pilotless planes to commercial travel.
He said Boeing is transferring its autonomous systems from US military aircraft to commercial planes.
“I think the future of autonomy is real for civil,” Mr Calhoun said.
“It’s going to take time. Everyone’s got to build confidence. We need a certification process that we all have faith and believe in.”
But don’t expect to be jetting off on pilotless planes tomorrow.
Aviation experts say it will take few decades of development and testing before regulatory authorities will give automated commercial aircraft the green light.
Automated planes have hoops to jump through
Matt Ebbatson, aviation undergraduate course director at Swinburne University of Technology, said a “huge amount” of pilots’ jobs are already automated.
“When people think about flying an aeroplane, you think about hands on the controls and physically flying the aeroplane around,” Dr Ebbatson told The New Daily.
“The role of the pilot has gone from a physical controller to … a manager; they’re doing the thinking skills, and then using the autopilot to enact it.”
The biggest barriers to automated commercial flights will be regulatory approval from aviation authorities, along with the public’s willingness to board.
Aviation is one of the most heavily regulated industries in the world, and Dr Ebbatson said there are many rules for aircraft and system design, testing, design applications and operations to make sure they’re as safe as possible.
There is currently no regulation covering pilot-free passenger aircraft, and it will take time for that to develop.
In February, Boeing began working with the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on building a certification program for autonomous aircraft, particularly in regards to its Wisk aircraft; a self-flying, electric four-seat taxi.
Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) told TND it has not “developed a view” on autonomous commercial passenger jets, but is keeping a watch on international developments in emerging technologies.
CASA expects the matter will be dealt with as a global initiative by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).
Virgin Australia and Qantas are not actively pursuing automated planes for their fleets, they said.
Dr Ebbatson said Australia would likely be looking for results in international jurisdictions, such as the US, before developing regulatory frameworks locally.
A recent push for flights to be piloted by one pilot instead of two by 2030 was deemed “not realistic” by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency because automation is not advanced enough.
Severe risks
The caution is understandable; fully automated cars have not yet been legalised, and a malfunctioning aircraft system could have even more serious implications.
Tony Webber, Airline Intelligence & Research CEO and former Qantas chief economist, said the probability and scale of death when things go wrong in the air is much higher than on the ground.
“That places the impact of any risk being realised as very significant, and so because of that, [regulatory bodies] look at that more carefully,” he told TND.
Huge leap of faith
The introduction of pilotless planes will likely come in stages over the next few decades.
Pilotless aircrafts have already been developed and used by militaries around the world, including Australia and the US.
Next up will be cargo planes; companies like California-based Xwing are already running automated test missions – although until the technology is approved by the FAA, a safety pilot is required on board.
Dr Webber said for commercial travel, Australians will be seeing small, automated air taxis before automated planes.
Electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) prototypes have been in development and testing for years, as seen with Boeing’s Wisk and Airbus’ CityAirbus NextGen.
Dr Webber expects eVTOLs, which have attracted investment from major airlines such as Virgin Atlantic, American Airlines and Japan Airlines, will be available for public use in about two years’ time.
“So there’s so much to learn, so much to do, but it is being done,” Mr Calhoun told Bloomberg.
By the time people are used to pilotless cargo planes and air taxis, they might be more open to the idea of automated planes, although UBS research found more than half of the 8000 people surveyed said they would refuse to travel in a pilotless plane, even if fares were cut.
When pilotless flights start being rolled out in the decades to come, passengers will be asked to take a leap of faith, but it’s unclear what benefits, if any, they will gain.
In contrast, airlines could end up raking it in, as a 2017 report by investment bank UBS found pilots cost the aviation industry $US35 billion (more than $51 billion) per year.
“All of this really comes back to … perceived trust and real trust,” Dr Ebbatson said.
“As a passenger, you want somebody who you trust at the front of the aeroplane who’s ultimately in command, and I think that’s something which is going to be very difficult [to overcome].”
