MIAMI — A large swath of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under hurricane and storm surge watches Monday from Hurricane Ian, which whipped up overnight and is expected to turn into major storm as it heads toward a potential first landfall in western Cuba.
The latest forecast showed Hurricane Ian crossing north of Tampa Bay as a powerful Category 3 storm and making landfall in the big bend as a Category 1 or 2 storm. But regardless of any future small shifts in the track, which forecasters warned could continue for the next few days, much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Naples northward, faces a major risk of storm surge.
The Tampa Bay metro area, home to some 3 million people, is particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding from hurricanes,
Southeast Florida is no longer in the cone, but the Lower Keys also remain under a tropical storm warning and the National Hurricane Center warned the region will see heavy rains this week, as well as gusty squalls from the strong storm.
New tropical storm watches were issued Monday for Lake Okeechobee and the middle Keys, and the watch on the west coast was extended southward to Flamingo.
Overnight, Ian became a well-organized hurricane, and forecasters expect it will rapidly intensify to a monster — Category 3 — on Monday before crossing Cuba’s west coast early Tuesday.
Tampa issued its first mandatory evacuation order, for Zone A, Monday morning. Zone B is under a voluntary evacuation. More orders could follow for other parts of the west coast, and all counties in Florida remain under a state of emergency.
As of the 11 a.m. update, Hurricane Ian was a Category 1 storm about 100 miles west of Grand Cayman and about 240 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It’s maximum sustained winds had started to pick up, now reaching 80 mph, and it’s wind field expanded to 115 miles from the center. It was heading northwest at 13 mph.
Ian’s forecast track, which shifted slightly east again in the latest update, showed the hurricane passing near or west of the Cayman Islands, and then near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday as a Category 3 storm.
Starting Monday morning the storm hit a patch of ocean with super warm water and low wind shear — everything it needs to get much stronger, quickly.
Forecasters are watching for rapid intensification, which is when a storm gains at least 30 mph in maximum sustained winds over a 24 hour period, on Monday. They expect Ian to menace Cuba as a strong Category 3 later Monday or early Tuesday.
Favorable conditions continue Tuesday, and Ian is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 once it’s over the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds ranging from 130 to 140 mph, as it starts moving north toward Florida’s Gulf Coast. Ian is forecast to pass a few hundred miles west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday before approaching the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday.
The hurricane center notes that Ian could see some weakening during this time, down to a Category 1 or 2, due to more intense wind shear. However, its also expected to slow down, which could lead to “significant wind and storm surge impacts along the west coast of Florida.” The 11 a.m. advisory shows Ian possibly weakening back into a Category 2 storm while passing west of Clearwater and making landfall somewhere along Florida’s west coast, likely on Thursday or Friday.
Exactly where Ian will come ashore is still uncertain. Models have closed in on the region from the middle of Florida’s panhandle to just south of Tampa Bay, but there’s still a decent amount of spread in the potential paths.
The 11 a.m. update inched the track east once again.
“The low confidence part of the forecast is where the center of Ian will go, and that has huge implications for destructive wind, high end surge, and significant flooding,” tweeted Craig Setzer, a former CBS4 meteorologist turned weather blogger. “Models continue to drift back & forth along the west Fla coast.
The biggest risk that Hurricane Ian brings to Florida — no matter where it makes landfall — is storm surge.
Florida’s west coast, especially Tampa Bay, is one of the most vulnerable spots in the nation to storm surge. The scenario currently forecast, a powerful storm passing just offshore to the north, is one of the most dangerous setups.
“Do not be fooled by the forecast of weaker winds. The storm surge can still be massive - higher than anything seen in modern times,” tweeted Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist at Fox Weather.
The hurricane center is forecasting 5 to 10 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay, with those totals slightly decreasing further south down the west coast. The Key, including the Dry Tortugas, could see two to four feet. And that’s all on top of this week’s king tides, the annual highest tides of the year.
Another complicating factor that could worsen the storm surge and rain associated with Hurricane Ian is its speed, which is expected to drop to around 5 mph when it nears Tampa Bay.
Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, tweeted Monday that Ian’s “forward speed will slow to a crawl as it approaches the state, prolonging wind, surge & rain impacts.”
And while South Florida remains outside of Ian’s cone of concern, the National Weather Service in Miami says the region is still expected to feel it, with storm surge flooding, heavy rain, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes possible through Thursday.
Forecasters say tropical storm conditions could begin Tuesday in the lower Keys, which are under a tropical storm warning, and in Florida’s west coast, which is under a hurricane watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane conditions could begin along Florida’s west coast Wednesday.
The hurricane center expects Ian will bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Florida Keys through Thursday, with other parts of Florida possibly seeing 3 to 8 inches of rain. The central-west part of Florida could see 8 to 10 inches of rain through Thursday, with some areas possibly seeing up to 15 inches of rain.
“Considerable flooding impacts are possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week,” the hurricane center said. “Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.”
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