The Aug. 15 deadline for a university to give notice of departure from the Atlantic Coast Conference for the 2024 football season is passing without any tremors out of Tallahassee. But league seismologists are on guard for the needle to twitch at any time.
Prone to public tantrums, Florida State leaders have given every indication that the school wants to leave the ACC as soon as feasible. A university source cautioned Tuesday that “nothing is imminent,” but others in the league aren’t so sure. Keep in mind that everything is fluid in the subterranean world of realignment, but multiple ACC sources told Sports Illustrated they would not be shocked if the Seminoles serve formal notice of a 2025 move in a matter of days or weeks.
That could lengthen the school’s runway on making a complicated, contentious, costly and likely litigious attempted exit, instead of a rushed relocation into the great unknown for ‘24. If FSU (or any other league member, like Clemson) is going to make a move, it likely wouldn’t wait until the deadline next summer to activate it. “Turning it around in 23 months, that’s a thought,” one source tells SI. “The idea of waiting 365 more days to declare [leaving the league] is not the concept.”
A source described Florida State and Clemson as “very connected,” albeit approaching their conference affiliation with “very different PR strategies.” Where the two football-centric schools could land if they left the ACC remains an unanswered, nine-figure question. Both have won national championships within the last decade and have the largest followings in the league, but no other conference is publicly lined up to take them—yet.
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In terms of geography and culture, the Southeastern Conference would be the natural fit. But Florida State and Clemson would not deliver new TV markets, and there could be resistance from in-state rivals and current league members Florida and South Carolina. Then there is the complication of ESPN, which partners with both the SEC and ACC, destabilizing one of its leagues to swell the ranks of another.
The Big Ten would be another potential option, maybe. While that would be a tough fit in some respects, how much do geography and culture still matter to an 18-team league that will stretch from Seattle to New Jersey? Or independence could be a third alternative, albeit one with considerable uncertainty and risk.
Should a Florida State-Clemson tandem exit come to pass, the next question would be whether that leads to mass destabilization of the 80-year-old ACC. The splintering of power conferences on both coasts would theoretically push all of major-college sports closer to consolidation under two powerful brands, the Big Ten and the SEC. ACC members North Carolina and Virginia are considered the next prized additions, perhaps initiating an acquisition battle between the two mega-leagues.
All we really know for sure at this point is that none of these doomsday scenarios will play out in 2024.
While the implosion of the Pac-12 led to quick conference changes for 2024, those were an anomaly and largely driven by the league’s expiring media-rights deal—there was nothing holding its members in place past 2024. An ACC source pointed to the more analogous situation of Texas and Oklahoma giving four years’ notice in 2021 of their intent to leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference, which ultimately will be expedited by one year.
Of course, the ACC is the national leader in locked-down media rights, which has been both a unifying element and a prime source of discontent. The agreement and corresponding grant of rights extends all the way to 2036, a deal that created what was presumed to be a powerful deterrent to anyone attempting to leave the league. But Florida State has been increasingly vocal about its dissatisfaction with the current revenue sharing and overall distribution between the league’s members, which lag behind what Big Ten and Southeastern Conference members are making.
“My current assessment of the situation after very deep analysis is I believe FSU will have to at some point consider very seriously leaving the ACC unless there were a radical change to the revenue distribution,” school president Robert McCullough said in a public board of trustees meeting earlier this month. Trustees echoed McCullough’s sentiments during the meeting, and earlier this month it was reported by Sportico that FSU is working with JP Morgan Chase to explore options for raising capital via private equity.
Is it possible that this is all brinksmanship designed to create the most advantageous revenue sharing plan possible, as soon as possible? Maybe. But discussions with half a dozen league sources revealed significant irritation with Florida State for exacerbating an aura of ACC instability. Some league reps say they would just as soon see FSU leave, freeing up potentially hundreds of millions in forfeited revenue and exit fees that would be distributed to remaining league members.
Given the appearance of FSU’s intent to find a new home, the school’s role in helping block the potential addition of Pac-12 members Stanford and California adds to the tension. As SI reported last week, the Seminoles are one of four schools that have been against taking in the Bay Area schools, along with Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State. League bylaws call for 12 out of 15 members (75 percent) to be in favor of an expansion addition, and as of now that’s being blocked by one (or more) schools that could be eyeing the exits.
Although still considered unlikely at the moment, the talks continue. One ACC source in favor of adding the Bay Area schools described it as a “third and 15” situation instead of trying to execute a Hail Mary.
Those schools and a third aspiring member, SMU, have been enlisting “big guns” to lobby on their behalf. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been making calls on behalf of Stanford, as has internet innovator Jerry Yang. SMU, meanwhile, has enlisted former President George W. Bush, one source says.
Multiple sources described North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham as the key administrator among the four who are opposed to adding the Bay Area schools. “He’s the loose block in the Jenga tower,” as one source put it.
Among those who have reached out to Cunningham are members of the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee, articulating concerns about what the diminishment of Stanford and Cal’s athletic programs would mean to the American Olympic movement. Stanford has produced the most American Olympics of any university, and Cal has produced the fourth-most. Cunningham is a member of the USOPC board and oversees a powerhouse program of his own in the Olympic sports.
The ACC has a regularly scheduled leadership call for Wednesday, and realignment will surely be discussed again. Florida State, still a league member, remains part of the decision-making process—for now. Everyone in the league has an ear to the ground, listening for tremors out of Tallahassee.
Additional reporting provided by Richard Johnson.
