A swirling area of thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm Thursday as it moves toward Florida. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Alex.
Why it matters: Regardless of its intensity, the storm is forecast to bring flooding rains to Cuba, parts of Mexico and South Florida as well as the Florida Keys this weekend. In fact, rainfall forecasts for Florida have been increasing for this storm.
The big picture: The storm is the Atlantic Basin's reincarnation of the mid-level circulation of Hurricane Agatha, which struck Oaxaca, Mexico, over the weekend as a Category 2 storm, a record intensity for an early May eastern Pacific landfall.
- When tropical cyclones in one ocean basin dissipate and then re-form in another, they earn new names.
- Upper-level winds over the Caribbean and the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are quite strong, which should hinder the storm's intensification beyond a minimal tropical storm, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center stated online.
- However, the threat that either a tropical depression or eventual Tropical Storm Alex brings from heavy rains could be significant, with the Hurricane Center and other National Weather Service offices predicting up to a foot of rain in some parts of southern Florida. This would be sufficient to cause flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.
Details: The heaviest rains are predicted to fall from Friday through Sunday across the Florida Keys, South Florida and northward throughout much of the peninsula. The storm is not anticipated to move north up the East Coast, instead sliding out to sea before having a chance to affect areas from Georgia to the Carolinas.
Context: Every seasonal hurricane forecasting group, from university researchers to the NHC, has called for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to be another above-average one in terms of storm activity.
- On Thursday, a veteran research group at Colorado State University issued an updated outlook that increased its expected number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of Florida, including the West Coast south of the Middle of Longboat Key, the East coast south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line, the Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee and Florida Bay.
- In South Florida, the rain "could cause considerable flash and urban flooding especially across the urban corridors," per the National Hurricane Center.
- Be smart: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas within 48 hours, the NHC notes.
Editor's note: This post was updated with new of tropical storm watches in Florida.
