More water is being released from the Hume Dam, near Albury, prompting fears for already flooded communities downstream.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) said forecast heavy rainfall over the weekend meant they must increase releases from the dam, which was 96 per cent full.
MDBA will now be releasing 95 gigalitres a day from the catchment into the river system, the equivalent of 38,000 Olympic swimming pools.
The last time there was a major flood downstream from the Hume Dam, in 2016, releases peaked at 80 gigalitres a day.
MDBA's executive director of river management, Andrew Reynolds, said their primary role was to keep the dam safe, store water and, where possible, mitigate floods.
"Right now, our priority is to generate more airspace in Hume Dam ahead of this next rain event, while minimising the impact of increased releases on Murray River communities downstream of the dam," he said.
"It is a delicate balancing act."
Damage already done
Like many places around the country, north-east Victoria and southern NSW are already dealing with flooding along many major waterways.
The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting totals of 40–70 millimetres of rain in the north east on Sunday, with some spots potentially copping 80–100mm.
The Bureau also said there could be major flooding along some already swollen rivers.
This is not good news for Ben Evans, who is working to save what he can of his sheep farm in Wetuppa, near Swan Hill.
His wife and young children have already evacuated, he has sold half of his sheep, and has a tinny tied to his back door in case he needs to escape quickly.
Of his family's 1,050-hectare property, just 2.5ha is not underwater.
Mr Evans was watching the coming rain and the imminent increased flows down the river with trepidation.
"With the inflows that we've got … the Murray is starting to come up again behind us so they're all going to impact us again," he said.
"It's a bit unknown as to how much higher it's going to go, so it's definitely a concern at the minute for all of us around here."
Mr Evans said the flooding would have an enormous impact on the region.
"It's heartbreaking to see what's happened," he said.
"And every time you look at the forecast there's more rain on the horizon."
For dairy farmer Debbie Johnson, the damage has already been done.
Her house in Benjeroop, across the Murray River from Wetuppa, was inundated at the end of October.
Despite a 1.2-metre levee and sandbags, floodwater came through the septic tank and old irrigation pipes, sending water and sewage surging through her house.
The army helped her evacuate, dragging out her car, which was loaded up with her dogs, chickens, and a calf.
After finding people to look after the calf and chickens, Ms Johnson had now found a place where she and her dogs could live for a while but she was still not sure what the future held.
"I'm back at work and trying to get on with things and make the best of what I've got left, which is my car and my dogs," she said.
"People I've spoken to have said, 'Oh well, the water will be gone in a couple of weeks', but it won't be. I won't even get to go home for three months."
What happens now
The MDBA said it would keep a close eye on the situation over the coming days.
"River operators continue to work around the clock to assess new inflow and weather information and manage releases accordingly," Mr Reynolds said.
Meanwhile, communities were on high alert, and local SES units were doing what they could to prepare for the coming storms.
"The atmosphere is just so unstable at the moment, so it's really hard to predict and hard to give people a really accurate warning about where this rainfall's going to impact us," Vic SES incident controller Brendan Corboy said.
He said it was most important that everyone in the region was prepared for anything from riverine flooding, to flash floods, power outages, and downed trees.
"It's something that impacts us all and we really need to be planning for these things that can disrupt our lives," Mr Corboy said.
"The important thing is to really understand your risk, what is your risk for your location? How are you going to help yourself?
"Have you got enough food, water, medication to last you for five days? And if you're asked to evacuate, please evacuate."
