A NEW poll report on Wednesday has shown an increase in support for Scottish independence.
But the YouGov poll also revealed a number of interesting points ahead of the upcoming General Election, and also about the potential make-up of the Scottish Parliament in 2026.
The survey asked the views of 1086 people living in Scotland aged 16 and over between August 3 and 8.
The National have pulled out key parts of the YouGov poll and what the latest survey has revealed.
Independence up three points
The survey puts support for Yes up by three points to 42% – but a No vote was slightly in the lead on 44% despite a one-point dip.
In April, the last time YouGov asked the question on Scottish independence, support for Yes was 39% against No’s 45%.
“Unionists would be making a mistake to assume that Labour’s rise and the SNP’s political troubles signal the death knell of the demand for independence,” Sir John Curtice said of the results.
Labour gaining on the SNP - but not overtaking
While Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar have been hitting the campaign trail in the key by-election seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, the latest polling might be a slight disappointment for the Labour leaders.
While they gained four points in a predicted vote share to 32%, that still falls behind the SNP’s 36%, which only went down one point since April.
Top pollster Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said that would give Starmer 22 Labour MPs in Scotland.
However, the SNP would still return 26 MPs – a result that could make a significant difference in Starmer’s bid to become the next UK Prime Minister.
Tory voters switching to Labour
The YouGov poll revealed that 21% of voters who backed the Tories in the 2019 General Election would switch to Labour at the next UK-wide ballot.
The survey suggested the Tories would retain six constituencies, despite dropping their vote share by two points to 15%.
It would certainly pile on the pressure on beleaguered Tory leader Douglas Ross, who won’t be defending his Moray seat when the time comes.
Popularity boost for Humza Yousaf
After an admittedly rough start to his time as First Minister of Scotland, amid a number of arrests in the SNP finance probe overshadowing his policy agenda, Yousaf's popularity is increasing.
Yousaf’s personal rating is up 11 points since June, but he still returns a score of -16.
Curtice told The Times that Yousaf (below) is making progress at winning over voters, but caveated that only 52% of people who voted SNP in 2019 think he is doing well.
Holyrood’s pro-indy majority could continue
It has been a bruising few weeks for the Scottish Greens and the Bute House Agreement after repeated attacks from both inside and out, but the latest poll suggested that there would be another pro-independence majority after the next Scottish Parliament election.
The SNP would see a reduction in the number of seats they hold from 64 to 57, while the Greens would see an increase from eight to 10 MSPs.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories would be hit hard, almost halving its current 31 MSPs to 16 seats. Scottish Labour on the other hand would regain its status as Holyrood’s second-largest party, increasing from 22 MSPs to 38.
The LibDems would also double their representation on Holyrood's benches from four MSPs to eight.
