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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
Abbi Garton-Crosbie

Five things we learned from the latest independence poll

A NEW poll has put support for Yes at 54% and the SNP lead over Labour in double digits at both Westminster and Holyrood.

Ipsos Mori, in conjunction with STV News, conducted a poll based on a sample of 1004 adults aged 16 and over between November 20 and 26.

The National has dug into the chart tables and pulled out some key points from the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor.

Scottish independence support stays strong

Support for Yes is not only at 54%, and 46% for No, and has increased since Ipsos’s last survey in May, when it was at 53%.

The poll also suggests that slightly more men than women back Yes among the respondents, with 50% of men and 46% of women stating that they would vote Yes.

More women were undecided (11%) than their male counterparts (6%). Yes is also in the lead in a number of age groups, with 65% of 18-24 year-olds and 61% of 25-34 year-olds backing leaving the UK.

Over half of 34-44 year-olds (51%) and 45-54 year-olds (52%) also said they would vote Yes if a referendum were held tomorrow, while only 47% of 55-64 year-olds said the same, with 45% of the same age group stating they would vote No.

When broken down into regions, Glasgow had the highest support for Yes at 61% with 30% stating they would vote No and 8% undecided, while southern Scotland had the lowest support for Yes at 36%, and the highest percentage who said they would vote No, at 55%.

Both the Highlands and Islands and Mid Scotland and Fife had 50% support for Yes.

SNP double digit lead over Labour at both Westminster and Holyrood

The SNP are still in front on General Election voting intention with a 10-point lead over Scottish Labour.

They have a slightly higher support among women (42%) than men (39%), while the opposite is true for Labour, who have 29% in the poll, 30% among men and 28% among women.

Compared to the previous poll the Scottish Tories are at 15% (-2), the Scottish Greens have a consistent 3%, while the LibDems are on 7%, and Alba on 2%.

Again the SNP polled better amongst younger cohorts, with 52% of 16-34 year-olds backing the party at a General Election, 44% of 35-54 year-olds and 33% of those aged 55 and above.

For Holyrood, with the next election due in 2026, the SNP have a 12-point lead at 39% (-3) over Scottish Labour who polled at 27% (-1). The Scottish Tories again have 15% (-2), the LibDems on 8% (+1) and the Scottish Greens on 4%.

The SNP top the regional list as well at 33% (-2), with Labour on 26% (-1) and the Tories on 15% (-2). The Scottish Greens look set for a record result with 10% (-2), with the LibDems on 8% (+3).

Public verdict on Michael Matheson’s iPad row

The Health Secretary’s £11,000 iPad bill has dominated headlines in recent weeks, with the Ipsos survey suggesting that 61% of Scots believe that he should resign over the revelations, while 31% say he should stay on.

Matheson’s use of parliamentary expenses to cover the bill, which he has now paid off, is currently being investigated by Holyrood authorities.

He admitted during a statement this month that the bill had been caused by his teenage sons using the iPad as a hotspot to stream football matches during a family holiday to Morocco last Christmas.

The poll results led to both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour calling on Matheson to resign. During a media event on Wednesday, Matheson said he would not give a “running commentary” on the Scottish Parliament Corporate Body (SPCB) probe.

Majority of Scots dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister

While most of the focus for Rishi Sunak this week has been the diplomatic row with the Greek Government over the Parthenon Marbles - even leading PMQs on Wednesday - Scots are evidently not pleased with the PM’s performance.

Dissatisfaction with the Tory MP has increased “markedly” according to Ipsos since its last poll in May, with Sunak returning a net rating of -53, compared to a -29 in May this year. This means 72% are dissatisfied with his performance as PM, while only 19% are satisfied.

The poll also had a number of other satisfaction ratings for politicians, with dissatisfaction with Labour leader Keir Starmer also growing since May to 52%, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -20, compared to -12 in May.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross's net satisfaction rating sits at -27, the same as newly appointed Foreign Secretary David Cameron.

First Minister Humza Yousaf has a -13 rating, with 48% dissatisfied with his performance, compared to 35% who are satisfied. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is the only politician to have a positive rating (+3).

NHS still most important issue to Scots - but housing rising up the ranks

Healthcare, NHS and hospitals is still seen as the key issue for Scots at 37% (-4), following by the cost of living and inflation at 25% (-4), and independence comes in fifth place at 18% (-7) after the economy at 23% (-2) and education at 22% (-6).

But, concerns over housing saw an increase and moved up the list of Scots priorities with 15% (+5). It comes as figures showed that prices in the private rental sector soared above inflation and Glasgow looks set to declare a homeless housing emergency. 

What's the reaction?

The FM welcomed the poll putting Yes at 54%, but added: “We will work hard for every single vote by delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland, and protecting them from Westminster harm.”

Elsewhere, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said it had “never been clearer” that Westminster doesn’t work for Scotland.

He added: "There is a choice between two futures: an independent Scotland with full powers to build a better country or a Westminster system and Brexit-based UK economy which is driving down people's living standards.

“We take absolutely nothing for granted and will re-double our efforts with the powers we have to help communities and businesses. Independent countries that are like Scotland are fairer and wealthier than the UK - so why not Scotland?”

Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater said it was "no wonder" support for Yes was so high. 

She said: "Every day that this disastrous Tory government spends in power is another day that Scotland is being held back.

"With independence we could do so much more to build a fairer, greener and better economy that prioritises wellbeing, tackles inequality and protects our planet. Instead we have been stuck with a succession of Tory Prime Ministers that we cannot remove and a Brexit that has cost jobs and curbed our rights to live, study and travel in Europe."

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