Everything appeared crystal clear regarding the 2025 MotoGP championship... until lap nine of the Grand Prix of the Americas.
It had seemed like the script was written in Marc Marquez’s favour: brother Alex would challenge but not quite have the pace, while Francesco Bagnaia would be thereabouts but ultimately fall short.
Then, on that fateful lap at COTA, Marc went down. Bagnaia managed to take the win while younger brother Alex came away with the championship lead. Perhaps the script hasn't reached its final draft yet after all.
Next up on the MotoGP calendar is the Qatar Grand Prix at Losail, a track Marquez isn’t particularly fond but where team-mate Bagnaia has had considerable success. Given Qatar's smooth surface, sweeping corners and high grip level, there could be a surprise podium result from Yamaha or Aprilia with KTM or Honda potentially on course to salvage a decent points haul.
Here are five things to look out for across the Qatar GP weekend.
The reigning champion returns to the track
It's fair to say that Aprilia hasn't exactly set the world alight in the first three races of the season. While 2024 Moto2 champion Ai Ogura and former Ducati rider Marco Bezzecchi have been putting in some respectable performances, the RS-GP doesn't look to be capable of challenging the stronghold that is Ducati.
This is a particular issue for reigning champion Jorge Martin, who is looking to finally start his career with the Aprilia factory team this weekend after a pre-season training crash led him to miss the first three rounds. Seeing how the 27-year-old performs on unfamiliar, mediocre machinery with his injuries still making their presence felt will be intriguing.
Bagnaia eyeing title attack
While it was expected that Marc Marquez would get the upper hand over Bagnaia, the Italian has been put further into the shade than was originally anticipated. Certainly, the two-time champion hasn’t looked like challenging for race wins let alone thinking about the championship. But with Marquez facing a track he doesn’t particularly enjoy this weekend, it might be a chance for ‘Pecco’ to pull one over on Marc.
Ultimately, it has to be remembered that Bagnaia hasn’t yet looked like taking
victory on merit. The opening lap of the sprint at COTA saw Bagnaia flatter only to deceive. The following day, six-time MotoGP champion Marquez actually had to go down before Bagnaia could pick up a win. The Italian might very well mount a championship challenge from this weekend onwards, but his pace until now suggests nobody should hold their breath.
An unexpected championship leader
While Marc grabbed the headlines with his crash and Bagnaia earned his share for inheriting an unlikely win, the new championship leader effectively slipped under the radar. Younger brother Alex has proved metronomically consistent in the opening three races of the year, with second places in all the grands prix and sprint races. You could argue that Alex, not Bagnaia, should have been in position to pick up the win at COTA - but this is nitpicking in what has been a very competent start to his season.
It does appear to be a matter of when, rather than if, Alex achieves his first MotoGP win this year. But whether he can do it with outright speed is another matter. While he did lead the main race in Thailand, this was because brother Marc dropped behind him to allow his tyre pressure to stay within the prescribed limits. Apart from opening lap tussles, Alex hasn't really looked in a position to challenge for victory on pure speed. Let’s see if Mr Consistency changes that at Qatar.
Watching the Yamaha yo-yo
There genuinely was a period of time during pre-season testing that Yamaha looked like a threat to Ducati. However, after a middling start to the season, Yamaha’s fortunes appear to have taken an upswing at COTA. The Qatar GP weekend could see the team move up the manufacturers' points table. If it's lucky.
With Jack Miller taking a strong fifth in the grand prix and Fabio Quartararo securing sixth after pressuring the Ducatis in the sprint at COTA, it shows that either the factory team or the Pramac satellite squad could potentially pull something out of the bag in Qatar. Admittedly, Yamaha is last in the standings, and it could still be that COTA was just a flash in the pan.
It should also be remembered that Pramac switched from Ducati to Yamaha this season, signing a seven-year deal after a two-decade association with the Italian manufacturer. In light of Yamaha’s start to the season, it's probably best not to remind Pramac’s team management of that.
KTM’s make or break moment
While the battle for last in the manufacturers' standings could essentially involve every bike that isn’t a Ducati, the KTM does appear to be contending for the unwanted title of worst bike on the grid. While Binder has been forcing the machine into the points and Pedro Acosta has been able to put in credible qualifying performances, the struggle is clear to see.
COTA saw KTM’s riders suffer horrific tyre wear and vibration problems to boot, with only the RC16’s astronomic straightline speed keeping it somewhat competitive. The financial woes of the parent company over the winter have been much publicised, however it is unclear if this is the driving force behind the lack of competitiveness this season or if it's the technical approach KTM is taking to solve its problems.
Still, Qatar could prove to be a highlight as Binder has gone well at this track in the past, qualifying and finishing second in last year's grand prix. For KTM, this weekend could either give its riders hope or launch them into despair. If the bike doesn’t go well at Qatar, it won’t go well anywhere.
