With just 22 days until Selection Sunday, the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee gave us an early look at where teams stand with its annual reveal of the current top 16. This sneak peek, if interpreted correctly, can give bracket analysts some insight into how the committee is thinking about the entire field, not just the top four seeds.
The committee’s top 16:
1. Gonzaga (No. 1, West)
2. Auburn (No. 1, Midwest)
3. Arizona (No. 1, South)
4. Kansas (No. 1, East)
5. Baylor (No. 2, South)
6. Kentucky (No. 2, East)
7. Purdue (No. 2, Midwest)
8. Duke (No. 2, West)
9. Villanova (No. 3, East)
10. Texas Tech (No. 3, Midwest)
11. Tennessee (No. 3, South)
12. Illinois (No. 3, West)
13. Wisconsin (No. 4, East)
14. UCLA (No. 4, Midwest)
15. Providence (No. 4, South)
16. Texas (No. 4, West)
So what does this all mean? Here are five takeaways from the reveal:
Gonzaga On Track for No. 1 Overall (Again)
This was expected, but Gonzaga’s placement as No. 1 overall right now means the Zags are well on their way to the top spot for a second straight season and staying out West until a potential Final Four trip to New Orleans. Committee chairman Tom Burnett did say the margin between Auburn and Gonzaga was “razor-thin,” so perhaps there is room for the Tigers to break through and take the No. 1 overall spot. That said, my read on things is that Auburn would have to win out (including in the SEC tournament) to beat out Gonzaga, assuming the Zags win out as expected. That’s a tough hill to climb, even for a team as good as Auburn is.
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Kansas Earns Fourth No. 1 Seed
Heading into Saturday, a consensus among bracketologists (including myself) had formed that Gonzaga, Auburn and Arizona were solidly on the No. 1 line. There was more debate regarding the final No. 1 seed, with strong arguments for Kansas, Kentucky and Baylor. There are some interesting head-to-head results at play between those three teams, as Kentucky blew out Kansas in Lawrence in late January before Kansas dominated Baylor the next week. In the end, the ranking of Kansas, followed by Baylor and then Kentucky, reflects that the committee favored the overall body of work of Kansas and Baylor over Kentucky’s superior predictive metrics. The Jayhawks and Bears each have nine Quadrant 1 wins (tied for the most in the country) while Kentucky is just 5–5 in Q1 games.
No Love for Houston
I was most looking forward to seeing where the committee would place Houston, as the Cougars entered today ranked No. 4 in KenPom and No. 7 in the NET but without a Q1 win. The result? The committee left them out of the top 16, though Burnett noted that the Cougars were among the three teams that were strongly considered for selection before missing the cut.
The less-than-warm reception for Houston’s résumé is a bad sign for teams like Iowa and North Carolina, the other two notable teams with no Q1 wins in the mix for NCAA tournament selection. The Hawkeyes are in better shape for selection than the Tar Heels, but both teams should be advised to tally a Q1 or two before Selection Sunday.
Meanwhile, Houston doesn’t have a ton it can do to improve its résumé from here on out given the relative weakness of the AAC. The Cougars will get a Q1 opportunity at Memphis to close out the regular season, but that’s it—with the exception of a potential conference tournament meeting with the Tigers.
Providence Falls to the No. 4 Line
Burnett cited teams’ Q1 and Q2 win totals constantly when justifying where the committee ranked certain programs, but Providence fell from a No. 3 in SI’s projected rankings to a No. 4 seed despite an 11–3 record in Q1 and Q2 games. That includes wins over Wisconsin and Texas Tech, two teams ranked above the Friars in the top 16.
We didn’t hear it directly from Burnett, but it seems like Providence was dinged because of the Friars’ poor predictive metrics. The Friars are just 45th in KenPom, a number that puts them closer to the average bubble team than a top-four seed. The No. 4 line might be the ceiling for Providence, especially if they can’t win at Villanova later this season.
Location Notes
The bracketed version of the top 16 provided some interesting potential location-related storylines to keep an eye on.
On the No. 1 line and second overall seed, Auburn was sent to the Midwest region in Chicago. My prior projections had the Tigers in San Antonio, but Chicago is closer from a mileage standpoint to Auburn’s campus than San Antonio is. That said, sending Auburn to Chicago in the same bracket as Purdue would be a tricky draw for the Tigers, considering Purdue’s close proximity to the Windy City.
Further down the seed list, No. 3 seed Villanova was sent to the East Regional in Philadelphia in another quirky draw. Villanova has played three home games this year at the Wells Fargo Center, which is where the regional is played. Burnett explained that since Villanova has only played three games in the arena this season, they’d be eligible to play there. Still, it’s hard to believe a No. 1 or No. 2 seed would be happy going into a pseudo-road game against Villanova in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.
