Selection Sunday is still over a month away, but the NCAA tournament selection committee is already working toward piecing together the eventual field of 68. Saturday’s top 16 reveal is a big step in that direction, as the committee will unveil a mock top 16 ranking based on what’s happened thus far this season. A lot can change in a month, but the rankings will provide some hints at what this year’s committee values and which teams might be seen in a better light than the current bracketology consensus.
Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s projected top 16 and five story lines to watch during Saturday’s reveal:
- Auburn Tigers
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Duke Blue Devils
- Florida Gators
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Purdue Boilermakers
- Houston Cougars
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Arizona Wildcats
- Wisconsin Badgers
- Kentucky Wildcats
- Kansas Jayhawks
- Michigan Wolverines
- St. John's Red Storm
- Michigan State Spartans
Five Things to Watch
Duke’s Placement
From an eye test standpoint, the Blue Devils are arguably the best team in the country. Résumé-wise, there’s more to poke holes in. Duke does have a pair of elite wins against Arizona and Auburn, but in total possesses just nine wins against the top two quadrants. That pales in comparison to Auburn’s 16 and Alabama’s 15. I fully expect Duke to be on the No. 1 seed line, but their placement compared to the likes of Alabama, Florida and Tennessee will be fascinating.
SEC Bracketing Principles
Our projected field has the SEC with five of the top six teams, six of the top 16 and one or two others in the conversation for a top-four seed. The league’s historic dominance could create headaches for the selection committee, potentially forcing them to break principles they generally abide by to accommodate so many teams clustered at the top of the bracket. We’ll get an early sense of how the committee plans to approach things with the top 16 reveal, though this is a topic to keep an eye on all the way to Selection Sunday.
The Crowded Big Ten Pecking Order
The Big Ten currently has five teams in the top 18 of the NET and a total of seven in the top 25. Sorting out how the committee views these squads right now should give us a jump on how they’ll be seeded in March. As of now, Purdue seems to have the best résumé. The Boilermakers have 14 wins against the top two quadrants, top-tier wins against Alabama, Ole Miss, Michigan and Maryland and no bad losses. It’d be a surprise if Purdue wasn’t the highest-seeded Big Ten team Saturday. After that though, it’s anyone’s guess how Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and perhaps Illinois are ordered on the seed list.
Where Does St. John’s Stand?
The Big East’s top dog in Year 2 under Rick Pitino, St. John’s has one of the more interesting résumés the committee will be considering Saturday. At 21–4, St. John’s has a gaudy record that clearly warrants top 16 consideration. But much of that work has been done against Quad 3 and 4 opponents, and the Red Storm have just three Quad 1 wins to their name with only weeks to go until Selection Sunday. From a metrics perspective, SJU would sit right on the bubble for top 16 selection. I’ve got them as a No. 4 seed, but the range here is fairly wide.
New Metrics
The committee has two more metrics at its disposal on the team sheets: Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and T-Rank. WAB is a résumé metric that attempts to better value each individual result compared to what an average bubble team would do against the same schedule, while T-Rank is a predictive quality-based metric comparable to KenPom. It may be hard to tell exactly how much influence those numbers have (especially in a top 16 reveal), but it’s worth watching any trends related to that as well as any public comments from committee chair Bubba Cunningham.
More College Basketball on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Five Story Lines to Watch in the Men’s NCAA Tournament Top 16 Reveal.
