Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a career season, and knowing which players might take a step back in the stat sheets. That’s especially important when it comes to running backs.
The reason is simple … featured players at the position have gone the way of the dodo bird, so missing out on a high-end runner with your valuable draft capital can make life difficult. Fantasy fans who drafted players like Josh Jacobs or Alexander Mattison in 2023 know the consequences of those decisions all too well.
With that in mind, here’s a list of five prominent running backs who could struggle to produce as regular starters.
Williams came out of nowhere to produce a breakout 2023 campaign, scoring 15 touchdowns in just 12 games and ranking seventh in PPR points. So, why is he in danger of “busting” this season? Well, his touch-to-touchdown ratio will be tough to replicate … he scored once for every 14.1 touches. That was better than Christian McCaffrey! Williams is also not the most durable running back in the league, missing five games last year. He’s also dealing with a foot problem that will keep him out of action in OTAs. The Rams also drafted Blake Corum, which makes Williams even more of a risk.
Jones finished 37th in points among backs last season, so how can he be a bust candidate? Well, he was a stud down the stretch, rushing for 100-plus yards in each of his final five games including the playoffs. During that time, only Breece Hall scored more points among backs. Jones will also be picked as a starter in a lot of leagues, but I’d temper expectations. Remember, he missed six games due to injuries and is entering his age-29 season. To me, Jones will be no more than a low-end, risk-reward No. 2 fantasy starter in drafts.
Pollard was considered a top-15 overall pick in 2023 fantasy drafts, but he failed to meet expectations. Most of his stats dropped compared to the previous season, including a yards-per-attempt average that dropped to four (he was over five in the prior two years). Now in Tennessee, Pollard could find himself in a committee with Tyjae Spears and behind a less effective offense line than he was used to in Dallas. At best, I’d take Pollard as a flex starter.
Mostert was one of last year's fantasy MVPs, coming out of nowhere to score 21 touchdowns. That’s more than he scored in his previous eight years combined! So, besides the inevitable touchdown regression he’ll see, Mostert is also entering his age-32 season after a 2023 campaign that saw him post a career-high in touches (he’s had 446 touches since he turned 30). Miami also drafted Jaylen Wright, who could dent Mostert’s touches.
Chubb is obviously a big name as a former fantasy superstar, but the gruesome knee injury he suffered last season has taken his value downward. He had two procedures on the knee, which had multiple torn ligaments, so you have to wonder how much of his power and speed was left on the operating room table. The Browns also have a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey, who likes to feature the passing game. I'd beware Chubb as more than a low flex starter.
MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Formerly of CBS Sports, NFL Network and SirusXM, Michael was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks. His work can now be found on SI, Westwood One Radio and the Bleav Podcast Network.
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