After a five-week break, the spring session of the parliamentary year is about to begin. Early election rumours continue to swirl – the “break in case of emergency” date bandied around the corridors of power remains 7 December. Calmer heads will point out that voters would only hit the polls on that date if the political situation appeared irrevocably difficult for the Albanese government, given that the last months of the year will be dominated by the US election and its outcome.
Either way, there are only nine months until the very last date the next election could be held. That doesn’t leave a lot of time for the Albanese government to complete its first-term agenda, regardless of whether it returns Australians to the polls before May. Albanese wants the focus to be on cost-of-living relief and the reforms the government has already passed through parliament, but stumbling blocks threaten to derail the agenda.
Ahead of Monday’s parliament return, here are five of the biggest issues to keep an eye on.
Electoral law reform
This has been in the too-hard basket for some time. A parliamentary committee reported back with an interim report in June 2023 with a range of recommendations for the government (independent MPs Kate Chaney and David Pocock wrote their own reports and recommendations, while the Coalition had a dissenting report). The recommendations ranged from lowering the donation disclosure threshold to $1,000 along with real-time donation declarations, spending and donation caps for elections and increased public funding for parties and candidates. The government noted the recommendations, and in March 2024, the special minister of state, Don Farrell, gave a little more information about where the government was planning to take the legislation.
Since then, not a lot. At least not publicly. Behind the scenes, those involved will tell you of the “complexities” of some of the reforms, including the spending caps, and the need for further consultation to ensure the legislation stands up to any constitutional challenge. There had been plans to introduce a bill in the next sitting of parliament, but that has been delayed until at least September. The Greens and independents are expecting further conversations regarding the draft bill over the next fortnight, which could lead to further delays. The crossbench has been pushing for the legislation to include truth-in-political advertising measures, or for the government to act on that in separate legislation, but the appetite for major reform is low from both Labor and the Coalition.
Any electoral reform is unlikely to pass through the parliament quickly, given the Coalition does not appear likely to be supportive and the crossbench has differing views on reforms. At this late stage of the term, the chance of reforms being in place before the next election appears remote.
Gambling reform
Late Labor MP Peta Murphy had a very clear idea about what she believed needed to occur to achieve real and lasting reform regarding Australia’s gambling issues: ban the ads.
The government won’t be going that far. Instead of a blanket ban, as recommended by the Murphy-led inquiry into gambling, the Albanese government appears to be considering a “cap” on gambling advertising. The gambling industry was consulted ahead of gambling harm advocates, who were invited to a briefing on the Friday before the parliament sitting – as long as they agreed to a 12-page non-disclosure agreement first, that is.
Leaks that emerged after gambling stakeholders attended a meeting to discuss the legislative plan included banning gambling ads online, during televised sports matches and an hour either side of live sport. There would also be hourly caps during general television programming. The leaked proposal has been roundly criticised by anti-gambling advocates and members of the crossbench. It is yet to be signed off by cabinet, so watch this space.
Immigration and student caps
Before the immigration/home affairs ministry reshuffle, Andrew Giles and Clare O’Neil were working on cutting Australia’s immigration levels. From a portfolio point of view, that is now Tony Burke’s problem. But it has whole-of-economy implications, especially when it comes to the tertiary sector.
Last week, the education minister, Jason Clare, rejected reports that the government was looking to impose a 40% international student cap on university enrolments, but that doesn’t mean the issue is settled. The cap is still to be confirmed by cabinet but the government has already more than doubled the cost of a student visa, to $1,600 . The government is aiming to halve overall temporary migration arrivals to 260,000 by 2024-25 and restricting the number of international students will play a big role in that. But given the tertiary sector’s reliance on the income from international students, the government will have another fight on its hands.
Religious freedoms
In opposition, Anthony Albanese committed a future Labor government to passing legislation that would prevent discrimination against people of faith, including anti-vilification protection; protect all students from discrimination on any grounds; and protect teachers from discrimination at work, while ensuring religious schools maintained the right to preference people of their faith during hiring processes.
The Australian Law Reform Commission was asked to review religious exemptions for educational institutions by the attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, in November 2022. It reported back in December 2023 and in March 2024, the report and its recommendations were released by the government. Since then, there has not been a lot of movement. Labor declared it wanted bipartisan support to move forward with its plans to amend the Sex Discrimination Act, including repealing section 38 and creating a Religious Discrimination Act, but the Coalition all but ruled that out. Labor has rebuffed offers from the Greens and crossbench to negotiate legislation without the Coalition. With neither major party willing to back away from their positions, it is unlikely there will be any resolution before the next election.
Related reforms may however be introduced, with the government looking to legislate protection against hate speech and doxing. Dreyfus has already announced that Labor wants to make doxing a crime and has begun looking for support for a separate hate speech bill.
Housing
Clare O’Neil has arguably been placed in one of the most visible portfolios the Albanese government has, as housing remains a hot-button cost-of-living issue and a vexed policy area for the government. The Coalition has not entered into the policy arena on this issue, leaving the Greens and independent crossbench as the kingmakers.
O’Neil’s first order of business is getting the government’s “build-to-rent” bill and its “help to buy” shared equity scheme through the Greens gauntlet. The Greens won’t budge on demands to cut the capital gains tax exemption and negative gearing deductions for investors, which the government has previously ruled out. Max Chandler-Mather has also led the minor party’s charge for rent controls and more affordable housing. Negotiations stalled under the former housing minister, Julie Collins, but now the government has a renewed focus – and urgency – on getting the housing bills through.
