As French President Emmanuel Macron starts his four-day visit to China, he will have to keep in mind Beijing's attitude on several crucial questions. These include democracy in Hong Kong and the status of the independent nationalist island of Taiwan.
1. China
France severed relations with Taiwan in 1964 in order to open diplomatic channels with Beijing. Mainland China insists that any country wishing to establish diplomatic relations must accept the “One China” principle in writing.
This involves the recognition that China is one country and that Taiwan, which has its own, independent government but is seen by Beijing as a “province”, is an “inseparable part” of the mainland.
Since the Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and drove the remnants of the nationalist KMT party to Taiwan after the civil war, Taipei is today recognised by only 13 countries, mainly Pacific and Caribbean mini-states and the Roman Catholic Vatican.
Last week, Honduras became the latest to swap sides. From China's perspective, Taiwan will, one day, return to "the motherland," if not in a peaceful way, then by force.
2. 'One country, two systems'
France has a consulate in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, and another in Hong Kong, just 15 minutes away by train.
In theory Hong Kong is part of another political system, parallel to the communist structure that is prevalent on mainland.
“One Country, Two Systems” is the policy that became popular under Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping who was China’s de-facto leader until his death in 1997. The idea was intended to smooth Hong Kong’s transition from British colony back to Chinese rule, with the promise that the territory could keep its limited democracy and independent political system.
This hybrid structure was intended to serve as a carrot to lure Taiwan back into the fold. But after massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2019, Beijing imposed the National Security Law in 2020, cracked down hard on dissent, attacked the independent judiciary and killed the embryonic democracy.
“One Country, Two Systems” is now dead, and people in Taiwan have completely lost their appetite for eventual reunification – if they ever had any.
3. Principles
A brainchild of former CCP leader Jiang Zemin who said the CCP should represent "the advanced productive forces, the orientation of China's culture and the fundamental interests of the ... Chinese people."
These vague slogans were widely ridiculed for their puzzling language.
But in practice, Jiang’s “Three Principles” policy appeared to be aimed at emancipating private entrepreneurs, giving them legitimacy after decades of Communist repression, and allowing businesspeople to become party members.
Many businesspeople saw their opportunity and became billionaires, forming entities that current leader Xi Jinping saw as threatening. With unrelenting anti-corruption measures he cracked down hard on them, some were ‘disappeared’ or locked up, others (like retail giant Alibaba's CEO Jack Ma) saw their empires cut to pieces.
One billionaire, Desmond Shum, who ran the Evergrande real estate giant, now lives in exile in the UK. He describes in his book “Red Roulette” how he enjoyed 100,000 euro meals in France. Another, billionaire, the actress Zhao Wei, who owns a chateau in France, mysteriously disappeared from public view.
4. Basic guidelines
Paris briefly became the base for dissidents fleeing the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown in Beijing. The protesters were calling for a more transprarent China, less corruption and the exploration of political avenues outside the grip of the CCP, in violating the “Four Basic Guidelines."
Also thought up under Deng Xiaoping, these set rigorous limits to free expression, obliging Chinese citizens to stick to “the socialist road,” uphold the “dictatorship of the proletariat” and the “leadership of the Communist Party”.
It is also unwise to talk about the independence of Tibet or Taiwan, promote the Falun Gong movement, or challenge the CCP's primacy.
5. Peaceful co-existence
Viciously attacking French semi-official delegations to Taiwan, China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, is probably the most agressive of China's "wolf warriors", representing a new brand of agressive diplomacy sanctioned by Xi Jinping.
Chinese foreign policy is generally guided by principles cooked up by Mao Zedong’s legendary Prime Minister, Zhou Enlai, in the 1950s when China launched itself as the leader of developing countries that were not aligned to either of the cold war blocs.
In general, these principles still rule China’s diplomacy today, and Chinese diplomats continue to stress their importance:
- mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty,
- non-aggression,
- non-interference in internal affairs,
- equality and mutual benefit,
- peaceful coexistence.
The principles put China in an awkward position after Russia invaded Ukraine last year. Beijing refused to directly criticise this violation of the "Five Principles," but observers say China is far from happy with Moscow’s behaviour.
Meanwhile, Beijing seems to be moving towards taking a more active role in global diplomacy.
In February, China published a 12-point peace plan as a solution for the Ukraine crisis and seems to present itself as a global powerbroker.
In the same month, Beijing brokered a deal between arch-enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia.
For France, China’s increasingly assertive diplomacy has consequences in the Pacific where French interests in New Caledonia and French Polynesia now directly border Chinese footholds in Pacific territories like the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Fiji.
