A year ago at this time, UConn was coming off a first-round NCAA tournament exit with plenty of pressure to take the next step from good to great. The Huskies broke through in a big way, starting 14–0 and, after a bumpy January, ripping through the NCAA tournament to claim a fifth national title.
There are a few stories like this every year in college basketball: the sport’s breakthrough teams. They won’t all go on to win championships, but here’s a look at five teams ready to take the next step in 2023–24 … and maybe even make a deep run in March.
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Michigan State
After a stretch of eight top-15 KenPom finishes in nine years from 2012 to ’20, Michigan State hasn’t had a top-25 season in three years and has lost 13 or more games in all three seasons. But optimism is sky-high in East Lansing that the Spartans are ready to get back to their elite ways. Why? It starts with a loaded returning backcourt that features a potential All-American in Tyson Walker, a high-end floor general in A.J. Hoggard and a sniper in Jaden Akins. Plus, this Spartans team is deeper and more athletic than it has been in a long time thanks to the addition of a strong four-man recruiting class that features three top-50 recruits. The depth problems MSU faced last season should no longer be a concern.
One major x-factor: freshman big man Xavier Booker. He has all the tools to be a modern NBA big man, gifted with elite mobility and the ability to protect the rim. But he’s still raw and didn’t play at the highest level in AAU or high school. If Tom Izzo can get him ready quickly, he could be a game-changer for the Michigan State defense at the rim, which has traditionally been elite when the longtime coach has had his best teams.
Villanova
This might be considered more “bounce back” than “breakthrough” given how consistently elite the Villanova program has been, but it’s a critical year for Kyle Neptune to prove missing the NCAA tournament last season was a fluke, not a trend. While Neptune wasn’t blameless in the Wildcats’ middling 17–17 campaign, the talent level simply wasn’t where it needed to be last season, and injuries didn’t help matters.
Talent won’t be an issue in 2023–24. A loaded transfer portal class featuring TJ Bamba (Washington State), Tyler Burton (Richmond), Hakim Hart (Maryland) and Lance Ware (Kentucky) joins a returning group that features a potential All-American in Justin Moore and a starting-caliber center in Eric Dixon. This team has great position size, proven scoring and tons of experience. They should contend for the Big East crown.
Texas A&M
If not for a slow start last season, Texas A&M likely would have earned a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. The Aggies went 15–3 in the SEC despite getting only league bottom-feeders Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina once each, but a 6–5 start with losses to Wofford and Murray State kept the spotlight off A&M most of the way. This time around, Texas A&M comes in with a target on its back but has the talent necessary to live up to the hype and more. Wade Taylor IV is one of the best point guards in the nation, and the returning frontcourt duo of Julius Marble and Henry Coleman is highly productive. This group turned a corner defensively down the stretch last season, and, if that continues, the Aggies are an SEC contender and potential top-15 team.
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Colorado
The Buffaloes were one of the nation’s least consistent teams in 2022–23. Bright spots like a road win at Tennessee and a neutral court victory over Texas A&M were canceled out by baffling performances, including losses to Grambling State and Oregon State. But with the team’s two top scorers back in KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva, as well as the addition of elite recruit Cody Williams, this is a Colorado team with the potential to not just make the NCAA tournament, but also to make noise while there.
Simpson needs to be more efficient, but he’s a dynamic shotmaker in the backcourt capable of playing with or without the ball. And da Silva is a potential draft pick next summer thanks to his skill level at 6'9". Add in Williams, whose brother, Jalen, is one of the NBA’s brightest young talents, and you start to see why there’s so much excitement in Boulder about this year’s group. Beating Texas in a secret scrimmage last week did little to slow down the hype train. This team is a dark horse in the Pac-12 title race.
New Mexico
One of the proudest mid-major programs in the country, New Mexico basketball has been down in recent years. But this season presents a great opportunity for the Lobos to go dancing for the first time since 2014 after nearly getting over that hump a season ago. New Mexico started 14–0 last season but finished just 8–12 down the stretch, with some heartbreaking losses like buzzer-beating defeats against Nevada and San Diego State that could have swung their fate in the other direction on Selection Sunday.
That said, the Lobos still appear to be on the rise under Richard Pitino. This team has two elite guards in Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr., and did well in the transfer portal to add the likes of Isaac Mushila (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Mustapha Amzil (Dayton) and Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona) to beef up the interior. This team’s ceiling is high, especially in a single-elimination setting due to its two top-tier guards.
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