It’s easy to just go along with the status quo. But, as is proven year after year, the NFL sees your status quo and chokeslams it through a table.
Yes, it’s a rarity where all of the chalk predictions and odds-on favorited outcomes are what end up taking place. The consensus on the AFC West last season was that every team would be competitive, and some even predicted all four teams in the division to make the playoffs. Instead, Nathaniel Hackett didn’t even last a full season in Denver, and the Raiders were their usual tire fire selves.
With that said, predictions were made to be bold, so let’s put on our big boy pants and get risky with five bold predictions for the NFL season.
Jonathan Gannon will be one-and-done in Arizona
The hiring of Jonathan Gannon by the Cardinals was one that felt strange and impulsive. He refused to speak to the media after his defense fell apart in the Super Bowl, he was caught in multiple inaccurate statements in a press conference about his time in Philadelphia, and the Cardinals roster is amongst the worst in the NFL. Add on the fact that we don’t know when, or if, we’ll see Kyler Murray this season, the former Eagles defensive coordinator is in over his head.
With the crop of head coaching candidates that will be available in 2024, combined with the real possibility that the Cardinals will own the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the idea of hiring Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to pair with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye could be too enticing for Monti Ossenfort to pass on.
Speaking of quarterbacks…
Mac Jones and Kyler Murray will be on different teams in 2024
It would be rather ironic to see Kyler Murray get Kyler Murray’d by Caleb Williams should that be what happens. As already laid out, there is a clear path for that taking place. If the Cardinals season is already dead and gone by the time he is cleared to compete, why would he risk any sort of damage playing meaningless games? The current Cardinals front office has no ties to him, and a trade could take place should they decide to go in that direction.
Mac Jones is lucky he plays in the same division as Zach Wilson, because as putrid as the former BYU quarterback was in 2022, Jones was nearly as bad. He finished the season 26th in EPA per play, and he was 29th in success rate. While the easy thing to do would be to blame the dynamic duo of doofuses at offensive coordinator for all of Jones’ struggles, that simply isn’t enough of an excuse. Yes, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were walking memes in 2022, and that certainly didn’t help the Alabama product. However, we have seen plenty of good quarterbacks overcome bad coaching in the past. Realistically, how much better is Jones going to get? It’s very possible that his 2021 season was his peak, and that the Patriots’ ceiling with Jones under center is getting boat raced by a team with an actual quarterback in the Wildcard round.
Bill Belichick isn’t just on the back nine of his coaching career, he’s approaching the 18th hole. He can’t afford mediocre quarterback play at this stage in his career if he wants to capture another ring before riding off into the sunset to spend the rest of his days watching Syracuse lacrosse. Maybe he goes out and gets Kirk Cousins. Perhaps he even makes a move for the aforementioned Murray. Whatever Belichick does, he can’t be complacent when the time comes, because if the verdict isn’t already out on Jones, it will be by the end of this season.
The Panthers will win the NFC South
Ah, the NFC South — the outcast stepchild of all the divisions in the NFL. It is a division of uncertainty, filled with teams at different stages of building what they hope will become a beautiful mansion.
The Falcons have all their walls in place, but just need to figure out if their quarterback is the foundation they want to build on. The Saints are like a great group of contract workers with a lousy boss. Sure, they can build you a nice home, but that general contractor just did something wrong and now you have no indoor plumbing — Dennis Allen, ladies and gentlemen. The Buccaneers went from an elegant manor led by his majesty, Tom Brady to a frat house led by Lieutenant Beer Bong, Baker Mayfield and a head coach who lives in his fears more than any other coach in the league, Todd Bowles.
Then there are the Carolina Panthers. They have the best coach in the division after hiring Frank Reich, who then hired the best defensive coordinator in the division by bringing in Ejiro Evero. Carolina’s defense is loaded with talent, as well. Jaycee Horn is one of the best young cornerbacks in the game, Brian Burns is a borderline elite edge rusher, Frankie Luvu is one of the most underrated players in the league, and Derick Brown is a force to be reckoned with in the trenches. It will be interesting to see how the defense adjusts to their new look, as Evero’s 3-4 will be a change from the 4-3 look the Panthers had under Steve Wilkes. Regardless, the Panthers are loaded on that side of the ball.
Offensively, there is a lot of potential with this unit. Bryce Young has reportedly been fantastic this offseason. I would have liked to have seen them add another proven veteran to be his go-to receiver rather than just giving him Terrance Marshall, 32 year-old Adam Thielen, and the ghost of DJ Chark, but there is depth behind all of them in the form of Shi Smith, Laviska Shenault, and Jonathan Mingo.
Carolina doesn’t have a grueling slate of teams to play in 2023, either. Their strength of schedule is ranked as the sixth easiest in the NFL, and they play in the weakest division in the league. With stability both in the front office and in the coaching staff, as well as their crop of young talent, the Panthers will surprise everyone in 2023 and host a playoff game as NFC South champions.
Trevor Lawrence will win NFL MVP.
One could make the argument that Patrick Mahomes could win MVP every season if he puts up similar numbers to what we’ve grown accustomed to. The same way Michael Jordan could have been named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player every year that he played. That said, there will be those seasons where a Charles Barkley or a Karl Malone has too good of a season to be denied, and William Trevor Lawrence is about to have his Karl Malone season.
Lawrence finished 2022 with 4,113 yards (9th in the NFL), 25 touchdowns (T-6th), and a passer rating of 95.2 (9th). Adding Calvin Ridley to this offense gives Lawrence, and head coach Doug Pederson, another toy to play with and exploit coverages. With Ridley on the outside, Christian Kirk in the slot, as well as a healthy dose of Travis Etienne and Evan Engram, the Jaguars have everything that Lawrence would need to put together an MVP-caliber season.
The Steelers will win the AFC North
The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in the league on paper. The Bengals have won consecutive division titles and appeared in the previous two AFC Championship Games, Baltimore added Odell Beckham Jr and Zay Flowers to their offense, and the Browns have a great roster that just needs Deshaun Watson to look like his former self.
Amongst all of that noise, though, are the Pittsburgh Steelers quietly lurking. After starting 2-6 in 2022, the Steelers won seven of their last nine games and fell just shy of earning a Wildcard spot in the AFC playoffs.
Pittsburgh made several key additions throughout the offseason. They improved the offensive line by signing guard Issac Seumalo from the Eagles, and drafted Georgia left tackle Broderick Jones. They also added another Bulldog in the draft, taking tight end Darnell Washington, whose athleticism and blocking ability will be an instant inclusion into the Steelers offense and its young core led by Kenny Pickett.
While Pickett’s career as a starter began slowly, he put together a respectable second half of the season, and there were few quarterbacks who were better in crunch time. From Weeks 14-18, Pickett let all quarterbacks in EPA per play in the fourth quarter, per RBSDM. His continued maturation paired with all of that young talent at his disposal should see the Steelers offense take a step forward in 2023.
On the other side of the ball, you always have to account for the usual suspects of Pittsburgh’s defense- Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and T.J. Watt.
The Steelers also benefit from playing a schedule that ranks 25th in terms of strength of schedule. Saying that the Steelers will win the AFC North isn’t equivalent to saying they are better than the Bengals. However, they do have an easier road to a division crown, and since division realignment, no team has won the AFC North three consecutive times. This could be the year for this young Steelers team to make a statement.
