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The Congressional Budget Office yesterday said the US Department of the Treasury will exhaust its ability to pay all its bills sometime between July and September, unless the $31.4tn cap on borrowing is raised or suspended.
In a report issued alongside its annual budget outlook, the non-partisan CBO cautioned that a historic federal debt default could occur before July if revenue flowing into the Treasury in April – when most Americans typically submit annual income tax filings – lags behind expectations.
The pace of incoming revenue, coupled with the performance of the US economy in the coming months, make it difficult for government officials to predict the exact “X-date”, when the Treasury could begin to default on many debt payments without action by Congress.
“If the debt limit is not raised or suspended before the extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government would be unable to pay its obligations fully,” the CBO report says. “As a result, the government would have to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations, or both.”
What else is happening? Separately, the CBO said annual US budget deficits would be, on average, $2tn between 2024 and 2033, approaching Covid-era records by the end of the decade – a forecast likely to stoke Republican demands for spending cuts. Meanwhile, the CBO estimated an unemployment rate of 4.7% this year, far above the current 3.4%.
Virginia governor clears path for ‘extreme’ bill allowing police to seek menstrual histories
The Republican governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, appears to have thwarted an attempt to stop law enforcement obtaining menstrual histories of women in the state.
A bill passed in the Democratic-led state senate, and supported by half the chamber’s Republicans, would have banned search warrants for menstrual data stored in tracking apps on mobile phones or other electronic devices.
Advocates feared private health information could be used in prosecutions for abortion law violations, after a US supreme court ruling last summer overturned federal protections for the procedure.
But Youngkin, who has pushed for a 15-week abortion ban to mirror similar measures in several Republican-controlled states, in effect axed the bill through a procedural move in a subcommittee of the Republican-controlled House.
What’s the justification for thwarting the attempt? Citing unspecified future threats to the ability of law enforcement to investigate crime, Maggie Cleary, Youngkin’s deputy secretary of public safety, told the courts of justice subcommittee it was not the legislature’s responsibility to restrict the scope of search warrants.
What do campaigners say? “The Youngkin administration’s opposition to this commonsense privacy protection measure shows his real intentions, to ban abortion and criminalize patients and medical providers,” said Tarina Keene, the executive director of Repro Rising Virginia.
Ohio residents demand answers two weeks after toxic chemical train derailment
Hundreds of residents of the Ohio village upended by a freight train derailment, and the subsequent burning of some of the hazardous chemicals on board, have questioned officials over potential health hazards.
Norfolk Southern, the rail operator, did not join last night’s meeting in East Palestine – which was billed as an open house gathering with local, state and federal officials – because of concerns for their staff’s safety.
“Unfortunately, after consulting with community leaders, we have become increasingly concerned about the growing physical threat to our employees … around this event stemming from the increasing likelihood of the participation of outside parties,” the rail company said.
The meeting came as the community sought answers over the potential effect on drinking water and the clean-up plans. There also remain concerns over the huge plumes of smoke and persistent odors.
What has the state’s Environmental Protection Agency said? The agency says the latest tests show water from five wells supplying the village’s drinking water are free from contaminants. But the EPA also recommends testing for private water wells because they are closer to the surface.
Why did the train derail? A mechanical issue with a rail car axle is suspected to be the cause, and the National Transportation Safety Board said it had video that appeared to show a wheel bearing overheating just beforehand. The NTSB expects its preliminary report in about two weeks.
In other news …
Mike Pompeo, the former US secretary of state, has defended Israel’s decades-long control of Palestinian territories by claiming that the Jewish state has a biblical claim to the land and is therefore not occupying it. He declined to support a two-state solution of an independent Palestine alongside Israel.
Diplomatic friction has worsened between the US and China after Beijing claimed, without evidence, that US high-altitude balloons flew over its Xinjiang and Tibet regions, and threatened unspecified measures against US entities for undermining Chinese sovereignty.
Police in El Paso, Texas, say one person was killed and three others were wounded in a shooting yesterday in a shopping mall. One person had been taken into custody, the El Paso police spokesperson, Sgt Robert Gomez, said. No further information was given.
Data collected by an Australian researcher via Twitter’s API appears to support media claims that the reach of the tweets of the platform’s billionaire owner, Elon Musk, have been artificially inflated after a tweet from Joe Biden about the Super Bowl got triple the impressions than did Musk’s game-time post.
Stat of the day: Antarctic sea ice hits record low
The area of sea ice around Antarctica has hit a record low, with scientists reporting “never having seen such an extreme situation before”. The ice extent is expected to shrink even further before this year’s summer melting season ends. The impact of the climate crisis on melting sea ice in the Arctic is clear in records that date from 1979. Antarctic sea ice varies much more from year to year, which has made it harder to see an effect from global heating. However, “remarkable” losses in the past six years indicate that the record levels of heat in the ocean and related changes in weather patterns may indicate that the climate crisis is finally manifesting in the observations.
Don’t miss this: Whatever happened to middle age? The mysterious case of the disappearing life stage
When it comes to screen culture, middle age is not what it used to be. People magazine gleefully reported last year that the characters in And Just Like That, the rebooted series of Sex and the City, were the same age (average 55) as the Golden Girls when they made their first outing in the mid-80s. How can that be possible? My recollection of the besequined Florida housemates was that they were teetering off this mortal coil, but then everyone seems old when one is young. Back in the day, 40 was the marker for midlife, but now, finding consensus on when middle age begins and what it represents is not easy. Midlife used to mean settling down, going grey and buying a lawnmower. But with relaxation no longer an option, has the concept lost all meaning?
Climate check: World risks descending into a climate ‘doom loop’, warn thinktanks
The world is at risk of descending into a climate “doom loop”, a thinktank report has warned. It said simply coping with the escalating impacts of the climate crisis could draw resources and focus away from the efforts to slash carbon emissions, making the situation even worse. The damage caused by global heating across the world is increasingly clear, and recovering from climate disasters is costing billions of dollars. Furthermore, these disasters can cause cascading problems including water, food and energy crises, as well as increased migration and conflict that drain countries’ resources. Those arguing 1.5C was still possible risked perpetuating complacency that today’s slow pace of action was sufficient, the researchers said.
Last thing: Japan’s number of islands doubles after recount
It cannot be easy keeping count of the number of islands scattered around an area of more than 142,800 square miles, in a country that is regularly subjected to volcanic activity and extreme weather. While Japan has experienced the formation of new islands, and the quiet disappearance of another, geographers have said official statistics showing it is made up of about 6,000 islands are way off the mark. Using digital mapping technology, geographers will soon announce that Japan’s island count is double the previously recognised number, according to media reports. In the first survey of its kind for 35 years, the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan has totted up a total of 14,125 islands – 7,273 more than previously thought.
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