Good morning.
Republicans are on the brink of taking control of the US House of Representatives after a flurry of races were called for them yesterday.
The party had expected an overwhelming victory in the lower chamber of Congress due to high inflation and dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. But there was unexpectedly strong support for the Democrats, who have controlled the House since 2019.
Even if the Republicans do claim victory in the House, it is likely they will have the narrowest margin of the 21st century – rivalling 2001 when they had a nine-seat majority.
Nearly a week on from the midterm elections, three race calls in California and New York pushed the Republicans to 217 seats, one off from the 218 needed to command a majority.
What’s happening in Arizona? The Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, Katie Hobbs, has defeated her far-right, Trump-endorsed opponent, staving off a major threat to voting rights in the state. Kari Lake, a former TV anchor who denies the 2020 election results, has refused to say if she will concede to Hobbs.
How did the Democrats stave off the predicted red wave? Analysis shows they have Generation Z to thank. Last week’s big wins can be attributed largely to young voters, who showed up en masse and overwhelmingly voted blue.
Trump to barrel ahead with campaign reveal despite Republican pushback
Despite attempts by some to dissuade him, Donald Trump is expected to announce his 2024 presidential campaign tonight as planned, according to multiple sources close to the former US president, inserting himself into the center of national politics as he attempts to box out potential rivals seeking the Republican nomination.
Trump will deliver at 9pm ET a speech from the ballroom at his Mar-a-Lago resort, where he recently hosted a subdued midterm elections watch party, and detail several policy goals that aides hope could become central themes of the presidential campaign.
Trump’s remarks were being finalized late into the night with a pair of speechwriters and his political team, the sources said, with aides keen for the former president to convey a degree of seriousness as he seeks voters to elevate him to a second term in the White House.
The political team at Mar-a-Lago are aware nonetheless that Trump has a penchant for veering off script and delivering news as he pleases, often fixating on grievances over debunked election fraud claims that have historically done him no favors.
Why has he decided not to delay his announcement? We previously reported that some members of his team argued delaying the announcement would give him the appearance of being wounded by the disappointing results in the midterms and would make him look weak.
Are Republicans happy he is running? Not all. The Alabama congressman and once-zealous Trump supporter, Mo Brooks, has a remarkable new stance on the political future of his former hero. “It would be a bad mistake for the Republicans to have Donald Trump as their nominee in 2024,” he said.
Russia strives to avoid G20 isolation as China and India distance themselves
Russia has been battling to prevent diplomatic isolation at the G20 summit in Bali as its traditional allies – China and India – started to distance themselves from the war in Ukraine, which a draft communique said had caused untold economic damage to the world.
Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, and Xi Jinping, the president of China, voiced concern about the war without breaking from their previous defence of Moscow.
US officials were still pushing for the final communique to pin more blame on Russia. The draft includes language noting “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine”, and stresses that “it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy”.
The summit’s host, Indonesia, has been trying to keep references to the war to a minimum, arguing the G20 is not a security forum and that reiteration of well known positions will prevent progress on issues such as global debt and post-Covid recovery.
What did the UK’s new prime minister say about Putin? Rishi Sunak told the G20 that Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, should have been prepared to face world leaders at the summit, as Russia leaving Ukraine would make “the single biggest difference” to world affairs.
In other news …
Volodymyr Zelenskiy made a surprise visit to Kherson on Monday, saying the recapture of the southern city marked “the beginning of the end of the war”. To chants of his name and cheers, the Ukrainian president told the crowd: “We are moving forward. We are ready for peace, peace for all our country.”
Family members of a former Russian prison inmate, who defected to Ukraine after being recruited by the Kremlin-linked private military group Wagner, have expressed “horror” over his apparent execution after a gruesome video emerged that showed him being struck repeatedly with a sledgehammer.
Michelle Obama has said Donald Trump’s rise to power in the 2016 US election “still hurts” but she and her husband had “laid a marker in the sand” with his presidency. The former first lady said “leadership matters” and ruled out the possibility of running for president herself in future.
The rate at which human sperm counts are decreasing has more than doubled since the turn of the century, and the mean level has dropped below a threshold that makes conception significantly more difficult. These findings are part of a study published today in the Human Reproduction Update journal.
Israel has said it will not cooperate with an FBI investigation into the killing of the Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh by the Israeli army. Israel’s defence minister, Benny Gantz, denounced the inquiry as “interference in Israel’s internal affairs”.
Stat of the day: jury orders Oscar-winner Paul Haggis to pay additional $2.5m in rape lawsuit
The Oscar-winning screenwriter Paul Haggis was ordered yesterday to pay an additional $2.5m in damages in a rape lawsuit, bringing the total to $10m for a woman who said he sexually assaulted her nearly a decade ago. While accuser Haleigh Breest’s lawyers called the verdict just, Haggis insisted he had been falsely accused and was financially ruined by fighting the civil case. The jury sided with Breest last week, awarding her $7.5m in compensatory damages for suffering and decided that she was also due punitive damages. Haggis vowed to appeal. “I can’t live with lies like this. I will die clearing my name.”
Don’t miss this: Divisions run deep in Uvalde after school shooting
Prior to the shooting, the Texas city grappled with police corruption, entrenched gun culture and the lasting wounds of segregation. Now the illusion of “Uvalde Strong” has ruptured as families demand change. At the center of it all are the families of those who were murdered, whose grief superseded any concerns about civic unity or political allegiance. For them, firing the inept, voting out the gun-friendly and changing gun laws are all part of a mission to make Uvalde safer. To make children safer. Resistance to that mission feels personal.
… Or this: Republicans split over 2024 run and predict ‘blood on the floor’
As Donald Trump prepares to announce his candidacy today, there is unease among the grassroots of the Republican party, where support has been eroding for months. Republican county chairs and activists say the former president’s support has fallen as a result of his continued pushing of election conspiracy theories, the investigations into his businesses and political actions, and his attacks on his most threatening challenger, Ron DeSantis. Above all, there is a deepening fear that Trump is even more divisive than he was two years ago when he lost the popular vote to Joe Biden by more than 7m votes, and is therefore unelectable.
Climate check: Impose climate tax on fossil fuel giants, media groups urge
Dozens of media organizations from around the world have published a joint editorial article calling for a windfall tax on the biggest fossil fuel companies. The funds raised should be redistributed to poorer, vulnerable countries, the editorial says, as they are suffering the worst impacts of the climate crisis despite having done the least to cause it. “Humanity has to end its addiction to fossil fuels,” the editorial, which was coordinated by the Guardian, says. “Rich countries account for just one in eight people in the world today but are responsible for half of greenhouse gases. These nations have a clear moral responsibility to help.”
Last thing: Five things about Michelle Obama revealed in her new book
Almost four years after her memoir, Becoming, Michelle Obama is once again giving readers insight into her life. In The Light We Carry, Obama shares practical tips and wisdom about everything from overcoming fear to how exactly you can “go high”. Peppered among the advice – from Obama and vicariously from family members, friends and colleagues – are stories about her life. From taking up knitting during the Covid pandemic to how she and Barack have never been “everything” to each other, here are five things we’ve learned about the former first lady.
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