After a deficit southwest monsoon season, the first post-monsoon cyclone this year is brewing over the Arabian Sea.
Though the majority of the global weather models indicate the further intensification of the system, Kerala is likely to be spared by the tropical storm as the system may move towards the Oman coast as per the initial prognosis. However, the cyclone, if formed and intensified, will trigger above-normal rainfall across the State.
The relatively higher sea surface temperature (SST) prevailing on the western side of the Indian Ocean, characterised as Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (+1.850C), is favourable for the formation of cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea region. It was too early to predict the strength of the system and its path, said a senior scientist of the India Meteorological department (IMD). Predicting the path of cyclones over the Arabian Sea in the initial stage seems to be a bit difficult for the meteorologists of late.
Though the expected path of the cyclone, to be named Tej if formed, is towards the Oman or them Yemen coast, the system can also take a recurve and head for the Gujarat or Pakistan coastline.
Over Bay of Bengal
Along with the cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea region, another system may form over the Bay of Bengal during the end of this week. According to the extended forecast issued by the IMD, the system is likely to move westwards towards the North Tamil Nadu and the Andhra Pradesh coasts with low probability of further intensification into a depression over southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.
In case the system gains strength, the onset of the northeast monsoon may be delayed slightly as westerlies from the west may cross over to the Bay of Bengal upsetting the establishment of easterlies, which brings the northeast monsoon to parts of Kerala.
The present atmospheric conditions are favourable for the onset of the northeast monsoon by October 23-25, and the southwest monsoon which is on retreat mode from the country is expected to complete the withdrawal within two days. Both these two systems will trigger above normal rainfall across the State till this month end, according to the IMD.
