College Football Playoff selection committee members come and go, formats fluctuate, conference affiliation changes. But one thing remains the same: brand names get preferential treatment.
This year’s evidence: the Indiana Hoosiers, BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs.
The first CFP top 25 rankings for the new, 12-team playoff were released Tuesday night, and the notable losers were the above three schools—Indiana landed at No. 8, BYU at No. 9 and SMU at No. 13. The Hoosiers are undefeated and have been dominant, but they’re behind five teams with one loss. The Cougars also are undefeated and have quality wins over SMU and No. 19 Kansas State, but are behind the same five teams with a loss. The Mustangs have one loss to BYU, a wipeout of No. 18 Pittsburgh and a road win over No. 22 Louisville, but are outside the bracket as of now.
Here’s what those three have going against them:
- They did not begin the season ranked in the top 25. The slot voters in the AP and coaches polls who lack the imagination to reconfigure their ballots after actual games are played haven’t made up for that lapse—and the first CFP committee rankings largely mirror those polls. Indiana is No. 8 in the AP poll and No. 10 in the coaches poll; BYU is No. 9 in both; SMU is No. 13 and No. 15.
- The committee seems to have followed its tacit marching orders from Tony Petitti and Greg Sankey, the commissioners of the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference, respectively, to make sure things go “incredibly well.” Unlike last year, when the first CFP rankings were completely weighted to win-loss record, this year that wasn’t the case. In 2023, the top five teams were all unbeaten from power conferences, followed by eight one-loss teams from power conferences, followed by nine two-loss teams from power conferences plus Notre Dame. This time around, strength of schedule seems to have held more sway—and that favors the SEC and Big Ten. (Indiana is a Big Ten member, so this point applies to BYU of the Big 12 and SMU of the ACC.)
- They’re not blueblood programs like the one-loss teams ahead of them: the Ohio State Buckeyes, Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns, Penn State Nittany Lions and Tennessee Volunteers. The Buckeyes and Bulldogs deserve to be ahead of Indiana and BYU, but not Texas, Penn State and Tennessee.
Penn State and Texas being ahead of Indiana and BYU is particularly puzzling. The Nittany Lions have a home loss (albeit to a good team, Ohio State), and seven wins over unranked teams by an average margin of 19 points. The Longhorns appear to still be getting credit for thumping the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Mich., in Week 2—but Michigan is a 5–4 team that hasn’t lived up to preseason billing.
Here’s a blind resume test for you from the first CFP top 25 last year vs. this year:
Last year, an undefeated Big Ten team that was criticized for its strength of schedule was 8–0, with an average margin of victory of 34.8 points without having played a ranked opponent. That team was ranked No. 3 in the first CFP rankings.
This year, an undefeated Big Ten team that has been criticized for its strength of schedule is 9–0, with an average margin of victory of 32.9 without having played a ranked opponent. That team is ranked No. 8.
The 2023 team: Michigan.
The 2024 team: Indiana.
The Wolverines were a blueblood coming off a playoff appearance the previous season and were ranked in the regular polls from the start. The Hoosiers are a perennial lightweight program coming off a losing season and a coaching change, predicted to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten. But if you look at the two programs’ actual results, there is scant difference.
Except when it comes to laundry and tradition.
As a No. 9 seed in these original rankings—the bracket and rankings are two different things, a confusing wrinkle that ESPN tried to address with middling success—Indiana is in a perilous position. If the Hoosiers finish 11–1 with a loss to Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio, on Nov. 23, could they drop out of the playoff? The Buckeyes are currently ranked No. 2, so it would hardly be a bad loss—but there isn’t much room to drop from No. 9.
The positioning of the Big 12 and ACC teams in the top 25 should also concern those conferences. There are four Big Ten teams and four from the SEC in the top 12, along with the independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Boise State Broncos of the Mountain West, and just one each from the other power conferences. That’s BYU of the Big 12 and the Miami Hurricanes of the ACC.
SMU sitting on the outside is a snub to the ACC. The Big 12’s second-ranked team is the one-loss Iowa State Cyclones way down at No. 17. Those leagues could have an uphill fight to get a second team into the bracket, and the Big 12 could be in danger of seeing a top-four seed go to Boise State over its champion.
The good news is that things will change significantly over the next month. The infuriating news is that the usual biases seem to be in effect, favoring the big-name programs and holding back the up-and-comers.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as First College Football Playoff Rankings Still Favor Blueblood Programs.
