Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was on track to lose in the Nordic country’s close parliamentary elections to a pro-business opposition group.
With almost 95% of votes counted, National Coalition leader Petteri Orpo declared victory, and the millennial leader’s Social Democrats were seen falling to third place behind the far-right Finns Party.
Orpo’s center-right party was set to win 48 seats, the Finns 46 seats and Marin’s SDP 43 seats, according to a tally by the Justice Ministry.
The winner — and the coalition they put together — will shape the trajectory of Finland’s public finances, the fate of its ambitious 2035 net zero goal and prospects to offset population aging with immigration into the cold, northernly nation.
The likely outcome would mirror the shift in neighboring Sweden where a more inward-looking and fiscally conservative government, led by the Moderate Party, took power from the Social Democrats last year.
“We must fix our economy,” Orpo told reporters. “We are a clear alternative to the left-wing government. People are very worried about the economy.”
While Marin’s SDP was the only one in her five-party left-leaning cabinet to add seats, the result shows Finns wanted to see more prudence in fiscal policy.
Under her government, Finland’s public debt jumped by about €40 billion ($43.4 billion) to about €195 billion last year, fueled by borrowings to tackle fallout from the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. Still, about a quarter of the total debt growth isn’t explained by those crises.
Still, Marin has widespread support, stemming from her handling of both an unprecedented pandemic and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which led to Finland’s bid to join NATO. She has garnered international fame as head of a cabinet led solely by women, with the 37-year-old premier’s personal lifestyle drawing in young voters.
Opposition ultra-nationalist Finns Party of Riikka Purra agrees with Orpo’s group on fiscal prudence, attracting voters concerned over internal security and immigration, and who think too much fuss is being made of climate change. It also channels the anti-establishment vote.
As a rule, the party with the most seats in parliament gets the first attempt to form a ruling coalition — and cabinets can even be formed by parties from opposite sides of the political spectrum if they manage to agree on a joint policy program. The talks can kick off after the election of a parliament speaker April 12 and are set to take weeks, if not months.
Among the few red lines disclosed ahead of the vote, many parties refuse to work with the nationalists, with Orpo’s National Coalition an exception. The Center Party of Finance Minister Annika Saarikko was the election’s biggest loser, and the party is likely to spend the next four years in opposition, she indicated.
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(Bloomberg News writer Philip Tabuas contributed to this report.)
