So finally the hammer has dropped. Well, sort of.
Red Bull have been found guilty by the FIA of overspending last season. The rumour mill suggested as much, but Christian Horner kept telling us he expected his team to be in compliance with the budget cap rules which were new for the 2021 campaign – even now, the team still believes it is innocent of any wrongdoing.
Official documents, released on Monday afternoon, now allege that was not the case. Of the 10 teams, the Milton Keynes-based outfit was the only one to go over budget – Aston Martin also committed a procedural breach of the rules and Williams were late in filing their submission.
The latter was fined for that earlier in the year, but the fate of the other two teams is not yet known. The FIA said it was "currently determining the appropriate course of action to be taken under the financial regulations with respect to Aston Martin and Red Bull and further information will be communicated in compliance with the regulations".
While Red Bull continue to assert their belief that they complied with the cost cap, the next conversation in regards to the FIA is what punishments will be handed out. Put as simply as possible – not always easy when it comes to F1 regulations – there are several roads the governing body can go down.
A sporting penalty, docking the team and/or its drivers points, is possible. A significant fine is very likely, considering Williams had to pay a five-figure sum because their paperwork was filed late. They could also punish non-compliant teams by reducing their cost cap in future seasons, which would hamper performance by giving them less to spend on car development.
Other avenues of punishment include a public reprimand and limited on-track or wind tunnel testing time. But we likely won't know the final decision for a while as, predictably, there is a bureaucratic process to go through before we reach that point.
The first attempt to settle the issue will be with what is called an "Accepted Breach Agreement". Red Bull may be tempted to go down this route as it would take away the risk of losing championship points. But to do this they must accept responsibility publicly, agree to bear costs and waive their right to appeal, which they may not be willing to do.
If an ABA cannot be agreed, then the case goes to the Cost Cap Adjudication Panel. Judges at a hearing would then hear both sides of the story before deciding whether or not the team is guilty of the offence the FIA is accusing them of. But taking the issue to court and losing is likely to result in a harsher punishment than before.
The whole process creates a delicate balancing act for the FIA to try to perform. If they try to make an example of Red Bull with a harsh punishment, it may well start a very ugly, lengthy and costly fight which could be damaging to the organisation and to Formula 1. Too lenient, and they set a precedent which could make the cost cap rule powerless in the future.
There is also the matter of how much Red Bull allegedly overspent by, and in which areas. If they put too much money into car development then that clearly must be met with stern penalties, for the sake of F1's sporting integrity, but if in other areas, perhaps even outside the team's control such as staff illness or unexpected costs, then there may be some room to go easy on Red Bull.
The fact this is the first season a cost cap has been in place should also be taken into account. As Horner said last week, new rules are always open to interpretation by teams and some loopholes may exist that were missed by the FIA when the regulations were drawn up. Until we get full transparency over where the breaches lie, we will not know how they happened.
The FIA is already under intense scrutiny after weeks of questionable decisions and controversial moments – not least the tractor which was sent on track during Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix with which Pierre Gasly had a scary close call. For the governing body's sake, and for F1, let's hope this process is open and resolved quickly, so a dark cloud does not hang over the sport for too long.
