Fewer Americans are moving to Florida and Texas, new data has shown, as higher cost of living, economic uncertainty and increasing risk of natural disasters causes concern.
Busy metropolitan cities such as Tampa and Dallas have seen a drop of almost two-thirds of people moving in, according to U.S. Census Bureau data reviewed by real estate company Redfin.
Tampa had a net inflow of just over 10,000 residents in 2024, compared to 35,000 people the year before, according to the company. This marks the biggest slowdown in domestic migration of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas
Dallas saw the next-biggest slowdown, with a net inflow of roughly 13,000 residents in 2024, down from 35,000 the year before.
Atlanta came third, according to the data, though other major areas in Florida and Texas – including Houston, Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Austin – also saw drops.
Redfin attributes the drops in domestic migration to the Sun Belt states to several concerns.
One major factor, according to Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent in Florida, is natural disasters and the resulting insurance costs. The frequency and intensity of climate disasters, such as hurricanes, has resulted in skyrocketing insurance premiums and HOA fees. The trend is similar in Texas.
“People used to move to Florida partly because they could get a deal. Now, people can’t afford to move here,” Carnaggio said. “The first questions from out-of-staters are, ‘How bad are the hurricanes? How high are insurance rates?’”
The increasing demand from companies to have workers return to the office also may be having an effect on the migration.
Many Americans left big cities on the East and West coasts during the Covid-19 pandemic due to record-low mortgage rates and increasing capacity for remote work, which allowed them to buy homes in more affordable areas with warmer weather.
Following a return to work, fewer people have the freedom to move around and some are choosing to return to the city to be closer to the office.
Redfin notes that the gap in housing costs between big-city job centers and Sun Belt metros has also shrunk. Cities such as Tampa, Dallas and Austin were once seen as affordable alternatives to high-cost cities like San Francisco and New York – but now those cities are getting more expensive.
Conversely, places such as the Midwest or the Northeast now appear more attractive due to being more affordable and less prone to natural disasters.
According to the data, Minneapolis and Indianapolis, where median home sales and rent prices are lower, are among the metro areas that saw migration rise in 2024.
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