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political reporter Melissa Clarke

Federal government's 'gas trigger' to keep supplies onshore may not be pulled just to put a lid on high prices

The government has a "gas trigger" it can pull to force local gas exporters to reserve some of their supplies for Australia. (AP: Bela Szandelszky)

Gas prices are high and temperatures are low, meaning businesses and households alike are facing big power bills this winter. 

The rising cost of gas and coal on the international market is a significant cause, despite Australia being a major global exporter of both commodities.

The federal government does have the power to directly intervene in the gas market to boost local supplies, often referred to as its "gas trigger".

But though there is pressure from gas users to provide some price relief, the new federal government has many factors to weigh up first.

Why are gas prices high in Australia?

As Europe weans off Russian gas and coal following its invasion of Ukraine, international demand for the commodities has risen dramatically.

Coal and gas prices here are driven by the global market, so any supplies needed outside of existing contracts are subject to volatile international spot prices.

Europe is moving away from Russian gas over the country's decision to invade Ukraine. (AP: Dmitry Lovetsky/File)

And reliability problems with some local coal-fired power stations are pushing up demand for gas too, as gas-fired power plants are needed to step up and fill the gaps.

Australia may be one of the world's largest exporters of gas, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee affordable supply domestically. 

To fund the development of gas fields, resources companies need to lock in long-term supply contracts at their outset.

That means some countries are now getting gas from Australia at significantly lower prices than can be bought here, thanks to their contracts.

In Western Australia, 15 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) available for export must be reserved for domestic use, which has been successful in keeping gas prices low. 

But there is no such policy in the rest of the country, meaning eastern Australia has to import extra gas supplies — and is exposed to international price shocks as a result.

What can the government do to lower gas prices?

There is an emergency provision called the "Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Mechanism" which, if used, would act in a similar way to WA's gas reservation policy.

The mechanism was introduced by then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2017, giving the Australian government the option to intervene, or to use the threat of intervention, to see more gas kept for domestic use.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, only in the job for a little over a week, is already fielding questions about whether he will use the gas trigger to curb prices.

But he has been at pains to avoid saying anything that might hint at such a move.

"We've had general conversations with resource companies, but not about that specifically," he said.

"Really, I just don't want to pre-empt conversations with other ministers and with other interested parties, including the regulators."

Jim Chalmers has warned that gas prices pose a serious risk to the economy. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Why doesn't the federal government pull the trigger straight away?

The mechanism can only be used in limited circumstances, and it is not clear the current price spikes would be enough to invoke it.

The Resources Minister, the newly-appointed Madeleine King, would need to determine that there will be a market shortfall of gas next year, not just high prices.

Even then, the earliest date export controls could be imposed is January next year, which would do nothing to help with the immediate issue of price peaks for businesses and households.

Of course, the government could rewrite the terms of the mechanism to get around those problems. 

But there are other reasons to be cautious about pulling the trigger.

If supply contracts are disrupted, it could affect Australia's reputation as a reliable trading partner, which could have long-term ramifications for the resources sector.

And cutting critical energy supplies to allies we are supporting to push back against Russia might not be a wise diplomatic move, either.

What do gas exporters and gas users say about it?

The gas industry, represented by the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA), has rejected the link between the rising prices domestically and the export market. 

APPEA acting chief executive Damian Dwyer said international price volatility and electricity generation issues are behind the price rises, and points out most domestic gas users have not been immediately affected.

"Around 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the gas market is covered by long-term contracts, known as gas supply agreements (GSAs), which were offered for this year — and locked in by many customers — at price levels of around $6/gigajoule to $9/GJ," Mr Dwyer said in a statement.

"The remainder is covered by smaller, volatile spot price markets which for much of this year have been around 70 per cent lower than those paid internationally, remembering that some of the headline-grabbing figures of recent days were future forecasts before prices were capped, not real prices being paid." 

Planned gas projects have met significant resistance from environmental groups. (ABC News: Mitchell Woolnough)

Despite labelling the energy price rises as "apocalyptic", the Australian Industry Group acknowledges using the gas reservation mechanism would be a "last-resort option".

Representing some industrial gas users, chief executive Innes Willox wants to see a swift and targeted short-term response to help vulnerable users.

"The states hold many relevant levers, as do the energy market authorities, energy suppliers and energy users," he said.

"The first task for the Commonwealth is to bring us all together."

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