What we learned in tonight's leaders' debate
Frankly, the second (of three) leaders’ debates was a bit of a shambles. It was shouty, there were technical problems, the cost of lettuce came up yet again ... but here are the main points:
- We should try not to pay too much attention to online polls.
- Prime minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Anthony Albanese went toe to toe a few times.
- The climate wars are far from over – the cost of electricity transmission saw the pair bicker bitterly.
- Morrison still can’t define what the “red line” is when it comes to the Solomon Islands-China security agreement.
- Both leaders say they have answers on reducing the cost-of-living pressures. Morrison says it’s the economy and jobs, Albanese says it’s wages, childcare and Medicare.
- Morrison says he’s never witnessed any corruption in the Liberal party and stuck to his existing exposure draft as his party’s plan for a federal integrity commission. He also conceded he shouldn’t have said the vaccine rollout was not a race. He also claimed he “blew the whistle” on aged care neglect (some would argue with that).
- You can, if you like, ignore the above and just read Sarah Martin’s summary.
Tomorrow we’ll have you covered with more analysis and fallout, and whatever else the penultimate week of the election campaign brings. Amy Remeikis will be here at sparrowfart to set you up for the day.
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Look. I’m not saying you shouldn’t watch the second leaders’ debate (if you haven’t already subjected yourself to it). But what I am saying is that Sarah Martin did, and that she’s stripped it back to the bits you need to know:
Slightly longer recap: The second leaders’ debate had a format that seems now as though it was destined for chaos. There was a 60-second time limit on responses – which an optimistic soul might think would lead to succinct answers.
Instead, we got the usual soundbites with the added bonus of Albanese and Morrison engaging in something akin to a fish slapping dance.
There were very good, serious questions on policy substance. And then there was a question about the definition of a female, stoking the anti-trans wars lit by Warringah candidate Katherine Deves.
The debate ended with a question on televising sports, which seems entirely irrelevant until you consider who hosted the shindig.
Is anyone nostalgic for the worm? We used to have a live indication of how viewers were responding to the leaders’ performances in these debates. All these years later, and all those technological advances, and tonight we got results that were not sturdy to begin with, and fell over completely when Nine’s polling platform failed.
Sit tight. Our experts’ verdicts will be in shortly.
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Quick recap: Nine had technical problems with its voting system. The initial results showed prime minister Scott Morrison beating Labor leader Anthony Albanese 52% to 48%.
Then more results came in, which put Albanese ahead at 51% to 49%.
And then a final set of results put them at 50% each.
And all this comes with the caveats of the aforementioned technical issues and the underlying unscientific nature of the online polling itself.
Conclusion: shoulda stuck with Lego Masters.
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Debate declared a dead heat
Um, now it’s a dead heat:
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It’s not clear if even more responses might come in. Abandon all hope.
More responses from viewers put Albanese in front
So more responses have come in, and now the winner is Albanese with 51% over Morrison at 49%.
Please send wine.
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Good point here from Josh Butler (in light of technical issues) – an earlier question got more than twice as many responses as the “winner” question:
From the ABC’s “numbers gremlin” Casey Briggs:
Crowe says he thought it was an “evenly matched” debate but that Morrison seemed more assured on policy details, while Albanese landed some blows – finishing his closing statement by deriding Morrison for saying “that’s not my job” being one of them.
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Uhlmann says that was from 20,000 votes, but notes again the technical problems with the voting platform.
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Viewers' vote calls Morrison the winner at 52% to 48%
And it’s a win for prime minister Scott Morrison, with 52% of the vote to Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s 48%.
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The “ultimate winner” will be declared shortly. (NB the “ultimate winner” will be decided by a process that is not particularly scientific – however, it will still feed into the “narrative” of the campaign). And here are the results of the poll on who people think will win:
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If you’re thinking about tuning out – don’t just yet. Katharine Murphy and Sarah Martin have been wading through the mire for you. They’ll bring you their insights shortly.
And if you just tuned in – lucky you! All you need is Murphy and Martin, unless you’re dying for a replay or a blow-by-blow of persnickety politicians being persnickety.
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Nine is now replaying some of the “highlights” of the debate, which I heard as just lots of shouting but Uhlmann describes as the leaders being “engaged”.
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Re. those poll results below, with the caveats that they were not representative – I should just repeat that Nine had trouble with their polling, and at this stage we have no idea how or if that might have affected the results.
The leaders try to elbow each other out in the second debate of the campaign:
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The 60 Minutes audience verdict on who would make a better prime minister was 49% for Labor leader Anthony Albanese, 45% for prime minister Scott Morrison, and 6% undecided.
That’s based on 50,000 responses but it’s not representative, Nine says.
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Nine’s chief political correspondent David Crowe says it’s interesting the leaders clashed hard on electricity transmission costs amid the cost-of-living debate:
There was one cost-of-living issue where we saw the big clash, and it was very interesting that they stepped it up themselves.
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And we’re back! Without the leaders, though. Or a functioning voting system. Chris Uhlmann, Nine’s political editor, says the debate was pretty good, and got “quite willing”.
And he points out that any guarantees given on cost of living are “hollow”, considering how little control politicians have over many factors.
Sounds as though the Nine Network is having technical issues with its voting system. They have asked people to keep trying, but this looks ... fairly borked:
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Albanese: I will never say 'that's not my job'
For his closing statement, Albanese says you’ll never hear him say “that’s not my job”. He says:
You know that at the moment the cost of everything is going up, but your wages are not. You do have a choice to change the country for the better. And we can do so much better than we are doing right now.
There are real issues right now. Childcare costs are spiralling right now. Aged care is in crisis right now. Work has never been more insecure than it is right now. Climate change is an opportunity, not just a challenge, right now. In spite of the floods and the bushfires, what does it take to wake up to this government, to the need to take serious action on climate change?
We need greater equality for women right now. We need to increase women’s economic participation as well as make workplaces safer right now. These are all issues that Australia has the opportunity to go forward in, and create a better future. If we seize that opportunity. I believe Australia is the greatest country on earth. But with a better government, we can be an even better country into the future. And I will say this – there are four words you will never hear from me. words you will never hear from me. “That’s not my job.” I will never say it.
If I get the job, I will do the job each and every day.
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Morrison's closing statement: 'Now is not the time to risk things on the unknown'
Morrison says “a small target is always a big risk”:
This election is a choice. It is a choice that is going to impact significantly on the future of all Australians. It is a choice between a government that has a strong economic plan, that has ensure that Australia is coming out of this pandemic stronger than almost any [other country] in the world today, with unemployment falling, a triple-A credit rating and a budget turned around by over $100bn in the last 12 months, so we can provide real cost-of-living relief.
A plan that is investing in small businesses. In skills, in infrastructure. Investing in the better roads, and ensuring the essential services you can rely on, whether it is Medicare, the national disability insurance scheme, because we know how to run a strong economy.
We are a known quantity, and at a time of great uncertainty, now is not the time to risk things on the unknown. Labor have no plan, they are unknown, and a small target is always a big risk and I think over the course of this campaign, as they have put forward what they have been talking about, Australians have been seeing and asking the question, are they really up to this, and is Mr Albanese really up to this? You know what we have achieved together and we can keep achieving that by sticking to that strong plan, because a strong economy means a strong future.
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They’ve moved on from the discussion about “doing deals” (neither leader really answered that question – Morrison had a crack about Labor signing a deal with the Greens).
And the final question was on sports being broadcast on free to air (there’ll be a review). Now on to final statements.
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Albanese says Labor’s the only party trying to form government in its own right (because the Liberal party only rules in the Coalition with the Nationals).
Morrison: “We are both doing that.”
Albanese: “You are not, you are part of a Coalition with Barnaby Joyce.”
Morrison: “And we have been since 1944.”
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Morrison is asked if he’d resign if that’s what it took for the “teal” independents to form a minority government with the Coalition.
A hung parliament would be “great chaos, great chaos”, he says. Knight asks if he will be replaced with defence minister Peter Dutton if the teals demand that he go.
He’s ducking and weaving. He says:
We will not be doing details on policies that we don’t support.
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Morrison is asked about that stage in the pandemic when Australian citizens were stopped from returning – particularly from India. It was “for a very brief period of time”, he says. “That was done on the basis of medical advice.”
It wasn’t just people from India, though ...
Morrison:
One of the things we did together with the state governments, right from the outset, is we agreed to put in place a quarantine system that was done with the states through hotels, which massively increased the capacity for us to have people come to Australia.
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Albanese has used the phrase “outrageous slur” a couple of times against accusations of Labor being too friendly with Beijing. Morrison is throwing accusations around about deputy leader Richard Marles and a speech he made in 2019 – you can read all about it here.
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Solomons deal a 'massive foreign policy failure', Albanese says
The Solomon Islands deal was a “massive foreign policy failure”, Albanese says, adding that the Coalition sold the port of Darwin to the Chinese Communist party.
*Insert minutes of the two men shouting at each other here*
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PM pressed to define 'red line' on Solomon Islands
On to the Solomon Islands-China security agreement now. What is the “red line” Morrison has talked about? Morrison:
It means that was something Australia believes would be completely against our national interest, and we also believe it will be against the Solomon Islands’ national interest.
Everyone has a clear position, he says. The red line means everyone has a “clear understanding” of those positions. We would work with our partners to prevent an outcome, he says. (No, I’m still not clear on the red line either.)
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Morrison is asked if he accepts responsibility for the neglect in aged care:
It occurred over 30 years, that is exactly what the royal commission has said. Over the last nine years, the Labor government before that, and the previous Liberal government before that. The problem is a very difficult, and we all know what the problems are. The solutions are very difficult.
Albanese says he only caved to pressure from Labor to call a royal commission.
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Albanese is asked if he can guarantee finding enough nurses to fulfil his pledge to have nurses in every nursing home, and 215 minutes of care for residents. He says:
We will, we will deliver on our policies.
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Albanese is asked about the death of senator Kimberley Kitching, and allegations she was bullied by Labor colleagues:
Well, the death of Kimberley Kitching is a tragedy. She was just 52 years of age. The procedures that are in place have been in place for some time.
I have the utmost confidence in my frontbench. And from time to time in politics, the truth is, that in terms of the issue that has been raised about a committee position, from time to time there is conflict, more people want positions than are available. That happens. My experience with Kimberley Kitching was she was making an outstanding contribution. I put her on the frontbench. I kept her on the frontbench. I think it is a tragedy that she was lost, particularly to her family and her close friends but to the Labor family as well, far too early.
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Morrison concedes the situation in parliament has not been fixed:
No, I don’t believe it has been resolved. I don’t believe it has been resolved ... Do I believe it is fixed? I don’t think it is fixed in any workplace around the country.
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Knight asks Morrison if he has a woman problem. Morrison says his government is helping survivors of domestic violence and women suffering post-natal depression, and:
This morning I was with Jenny and we were down in Melbourne and we announced our policy to ensure that women who are suffering from cancer or have genetic diseases who could transmit ... we are supporting them to freeze their embryos, and others, so that when they are facing cancer they will not also face the terrible disappointment that one day they may not be able to have children.
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Oh help. Now both leaders have been asked what the definition of a woman is (obviously buying into the trans “debate” sparked by Liberal candidate Katherine Deves).
Albanese: “An adult female.”
Morrison: “A member of the female sex.”
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Morrison is trying to paint Labor’s help-to-buy scheme as a “forced-to-sell” scheme. Morrison says people might have to pay back that shared equity if they get a job. Albanese says that’s not true.
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Albanese asks Morrison if he supports the minimum wage for all workers, and Morrison distinguishes people on a wage from people like small business owners, “when the money is not coming in”.
What about gig workers?
Morrison says:
They are working for themselves, that’s why they do it.
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That “better way” Albanese is talking about is Labor’s housing policy. They’re on to the shared equity scheme for housing that Labor has promised.
Albanese points out that Morrison has supported shared equity in the past, when the Victorian government brought in a scheme. That was a state scheme, not a federal one, Morrison says. He never favoured a federal one (yeah, good luck parsing that).
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Morrison’s question to Albanese is about his position changes on a range of issues, including negative gearing, tax cuts, boat turnbacks, etc:
Given you have changed your mind on so things you are passionately against, how can Australians believe you are now for them?
Albanese says Labor found a “better way”:
We had a range of policies that we put forward that were not successful.
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Morrison admits he should not have said vaccine rollout was 'not a race'
And we’re back. Now a question from Albanese to Morrison. We’ve both had Covid, he says, and gives thanks to the science. You said it wasn’t a race, Albanese says:
Do you now accept that indeed it was a race, and you should have secured vaccines earlier?
Morrison gives ground:
We shouldn’t have described it in those terms.
“Yes, it’s true ... we had our setbacks,” he says:
But we came back, we got the vaccines and we now have one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, as well as one of the stronger economies and one of the lowest death rates from Covid. A lot of people would have liked to have been in Australia when it came to coming through the Covid pandemic.
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Everyone’s probably watching this on different platforms, but I’m getting Labor attack ads in this short break in the leaders’ debate.
Albanese is talking about restoring faith in institutions:
Our democracy is precious ... we need to make sure that Australians can have faith in it and that is why we need to do whatever we can to create institutions and structures that enhance that faith in our political system.
And now both leaders’ voices have gone up an octave or so, they’re talking over each other – it’s not edifying.
Morrison is saying Albanese’s federal integrity commission plans are only a couple of pages long and says he’s “hiding in the bushes”. Albanese says:
We will have legislation this year if we are elected.
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No one really likes either of you, Knight says. Morrison says it’s not about whether or not you like someone:
It is a choice about who you think has the economic plan and the strength to lead the country at a time which is almost unprecedented.
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Albanese points out the backlash to Morrison’s comments that the NSW Icac was a “kangaroo court”:
We need to make sure that we restore faith in the integrity of our political system. I think, overwhelmingly, people go into politics across the spectrum for all the right reasons. They go in to take their view about how they help their fellow Australians in the best way possible. But the truth is, there is a stench around Canberra at the moment.
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PM says he has never witnessed any corruption
Crowe asks Morrison point blank if he’s witnessed any corruption. “I haven’t,” says Morrison. Crowe follows up with a question about whether that’s why he’s reluctant to implement a federal integrity commission.
Morrison then outlines the exposure draft his government has created, but not put to parliament. Crowe then asks him about findings from the NSW Icac and Morrison says:
You are assuming I have some knowledge or awareness or involvement in those issues which I clearly do not.
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Morrison says he has 'brought his party together' on net zero
Morrison is asked if he’s divisive:
We have not seen the revolving door under my leadership. I brought my party together, brought my Coalition together, brought my Coalition together by getting to net zero by 2050, that is something that took a lot of leadership to bring my party together in the unity.
Which leads naturally to a skirmish over climate change targets, with Albanese saying Morrison can’t be more ambitious because Barnaby Joyce won’t let him.
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Knight puts to Albanese that people still don’t know who he is. He says:
I think Australians know what I stand for. I had the same values my entire life. The values of supporting a fair day’s pay for a [day’s] work. The values of supporting essential universal services, such as Medicare, supporting universal superannuation ... I came out [of the womb] with three great faiths, the Labor party, the Catholic church and the South Sydney rugby league football club and I remain true to all three.
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'Why don't people trust you, Mr Morrison?'
The prime minister says it’s been a tough three years:
Particularly the last two years, and I know over that period of time there would have been many disappointments, people would have disagreed with many things I did and would have a different view about how things might have been managed. So I can understand the hurt and the feelings that people have had coming out of a time like this.
That can lead them to feel bad about the government’s and bad about the government’s and bad about their leaders as we have seen in many places around the world, so I understand that.
Uhlmann points out the direct criticisms from people including Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce.
Morrison:
From time to time, I will disagree with people and they won’t agree with the position I am taking.
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Uhlmann has brought up Albanese’s stumble on listing the six points of Labor’s NDIS plan. He’s implying that Albanese lied about knowing the policy (and refers to accusations that Morrison routinely lies). Albanese says “that’s not right”:
The question of the NDIS isn’t about a number of points, what it is about is how do you fix the NDIS, and Labor created the national disability insurance scheme. We are very concerned that people are having their programs cut.
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Still on young people, Crowe asks Morrison about the younger generation who will shoulder the debt burden. The answer? Jobs:
We took action and, yes, we had to borrow to do that ... had we not borrowed, the Australian economy would not look like it does today and I think Australians understand that and that is why they supported those programs. But the biggest thing I think we can do for young Australians to make sure they get jobs.
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On to the housing crisis now. Crowe asks Albanese what Labor will do to help (specifically) young people. Albanese outlines the general housing plans (Crowe comes back to emphasise he was interested in young people).
Albanese:
Young people are doing it really tough, no doubt about that. In order to address housing, what you need is a comprehensive plan and we have that. We have that in terms of increased investment in social housing. We have that 20,000 additional housing dwellings. We have a plan for 10,000 affordable housing units for essential workers. We also have a plan for emergency housing and a range of other areas but we also have our help to buy scheme which would enable low- and middle-income earners to have that assistance with a shared equity scheme.
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Heated exchange over energy transmission costs
Morrison and Albanese are shouting over each other about the costs of transmission within the energy network. Albanese says transmission is an investment, and Morrison says that cost gets passed on to consumers.
Morrison:
How much more will you spend on transmission? Then they have to recover that from the consumers and prices go up. It is recovered from the consumers and they pay the electricity prices which meant prices go up. It is 30% of the bill.
Albanese says there is not an energy economist who would agree with that:
The low-hanging fruit, you have not addressed in the low-hanging fruit when it comes to fixing energy in this country – fixing energy in this country is fixing transmission.
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We brought the budget back into balance before the pandemic, Morrison says. But that expenditure (which took Australia deep into red territory) is what has ensured the economy is back on track now:
Getting debt and deficit under control means you keep reducing your deficit over time. The Labor party have said they will have higher deficits than us, and what we will be doing is ensuring that we will be doing is ensuring ... exactly like last time, we have balanced the budget once ...
Then Morrison is out of time, and Albanese points out that debt had doubled before the pandemic.
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Morrison attacks 'irresponsible' emissions targets
Morrison says power prices have dropped 10% under his government, and that the Coalition is helping consumers get better deals. Coal prices were driving up wholesale prices, he says, and those will now come down:
What we have done is actually cut electricity prices. Under the Labor party, electricity prices more than doubled when they were last in.
And he has a whack at “irresponsible targets to reduce emissions”. And who said the climate wars were over?
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Albanese can’t guarantee wages will rise faster than inflation if he wins government. He says:
Our objective is to have real wage increases and we have practical plans to do that.
He says Labor will put in a submission to the Fair Work Commission for a pay rise in aged care, will support an increase in minimum wages, and will address the gender pay gap.
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Crowe points out that Labor has backed much of the Coalition’s spending plans. Albanese says Labor’s spending will increase productivity:
The priority we have had in terms of our investments have been in areas which will grow productivity, which will grow the economy in a way that doesn’t put pressure on inflation. Take, for example, childcare and it is one of the reasons why our childcare plan has been backed in so strongly by the business community.
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Crowe asks Morrison if he takes any responsibility for interest rates rises. Morrison says, in short, no.
He says Treasury and Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe have backed that, and uses the well-worn line that Australia is doing better than other developed nations. He says Australia has more “downward pressure” than comparable countries:
That is because our economic plan is getting people into work, giving people confidence, businesses are investing, business is getting back on its feet and you cannot take that for granted.
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Albanese has switched the conversation to wages. He says:
The problem is, there has never been more Australians working in insecure work than there are at the moment, we have seen this plethora of growth in labour hire and contracting, we have 500,000Australians who are working three or more jobs. They are not doing that out of choice... they are doing that to try to get by and that is why one of the things we need to do is to address wages.
Both leaders confirm the fuel excise cut will be temporary
Neither will commit to maintaining that cut to the fuel excise.
Albanese first responded that the AAA rating was achieved under Labor, and points out that the cut to the fuel excise will expire in September. Morrison says other measures will continue.
But those fuel prices are set to go up again in a few months.
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Sarah Abo asks the leaders to commit to truth in this critical debate, then asks what the parties can actually do to help with cost-of-living pressures (including lettuce and flowers).
Albanese:
[Our economic plan] makes sure that we prioritise productivity so that we are not placing upward pressure on inflation, so our plan, which consists of powering Australia for cheaper energy, which consists of fixing the NBN, it infrastructure, investment, cheaper childcare and making more things here is all aimed at growing the economy in the way that does not put additional pressure on inflation. They are the sort of measures you can do that will make a practical difference to people’s lives.
Morrison talks about global “upward pressures”:
Australia has maintained a AAA credit rating, one of only nine countries in the world to do so during the pandemic. And that means ... we can cut the fuel tax, meaning we can pay $250 to pensioners and others on fixed incomes and $420 that Australians could keep more of what they earn when they put their tax return in on 1 July. We cannot control all the forces that are coming from overseas, but what we can do, by managing money well, that puts downward pressure on inflation, managing money well means we can invest in ... the essential services.
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Labor leader Anthony Albanese echoes the Mother’s Day wishes, and says Australia “can’t afford” three more years of the same government. He kicks off with Labor’s childcare and Medicare promises:
We will have cheaper childcare, we will have stronger Medicare including with cheaper medicines to make it easier to see a doctor. We will have more secure work and we have a plan to lift wages. We also have a plan for clean energy through renewables. We can have cleaner, cheaper energy driving advanced manufacturing here, bringing back jobs, having a more resilient economy here so we can stand on our own two feet. And we can train Australians for those jobs, with the free Tafe and additional university places and we need to fix the crisis in aged care – and it was summed up in the interim report with a one-word statement, “neglect”, in its title.
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Prime minister Scott Morrison opens by wishing everyone a happy Mothers’ Day. His pitch is that the election is a choice about a stronger economy or a weaker one. He says he is “incredibly optimistic about Australia’s future”:
This is a choice between strength and weakness, a choice between certainty and uncertainty. What you know about the government and what you don’t know about the Labor party and the opposition who have had three years to tell you but haven’t. So today, tonight, it is all about a choice between who can best manage that economy for a stronger future, because a strong economy means a stronger future.
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The debate begins
Here we go! Apart from opening statements (which are 90 seconds) answers will be kept to 60 seconds.
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This is wildly funny. I am looking at a Lego man on a Lego toilet while waiting for a potential prime minister to debate the other potential prime minister.
And it starts with a toss (no jokes, pls):
Here’s the panel for tonight’s show:
Here’s some background on the negotiations for this second leaders’ debate. There has been some angst that the ABC – the national broadcaster – has been denied the chance to host one. The first was on Sky News, tonight’s is on the Nine Network, and on Wednesday the final tussle before 21 May will be on Channel 7.
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If you’re waiting for the debate to start on the telly, you might (like me) be enjoying your first look at Lego Masters. It seems quite jolly. Meanwhile, here is the latest Ipsos poll, showing Labor ahead of the Coalition at 57 to 43, two-party-preferred. Which is quite a lead (if we trust the polls, etc).
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They’re calling it The Great Debate and it’ll start shortly.
Less than two weeks out from election day, prime minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Anthony Albanese will face questions from Nine’s chief political correspondent David Crowe, political editor Chris Uhlmann, and 2GB afternoon host Deborah Knight.
60 Minutes reporter Sarah Abo will moderate.
Nine is promising “nothing is off limits”, and says the leaders haven’t been given a heads-up about what questions they will face.
The third and final leaders’ debate will be on Wednesday and, naturally, we’ll be covering that as well.