Sudan faces a weekend of intensified violence after last-minute efforts to impose a ceasefire before the end of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr and bring a close to almost a week of fighting in Khartoum failed.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have now spent almost a week trapped in their homes in the capital, under constant bombardment with dwindling supplies of food and limited power.
Spain, Germany and other EU members are preparing to evacuate their citizens, as are South Korea and Japan. The US is moving extra troops and equipment to a naval base in Djibouti, south-east of Sudan, to prepare for the possible evacuation of US embassy personnel. The international airport in Khartoum remains inoperable and Sudanese airspace is closed.
On Friday, there was more intense shelling and gunfights as fresh units of army soldiers sent into the city took on fighters from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in an apparent effort to wrest control of the streets.
The conflict broke out last weekend and has pitted army units loyal to Sudan’s military ruler, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who isthe deputy head of the ruling council. Their power struggle has derailed a move towards civilian rule and raised fears of chaos in the country of 45 million people, Africa’s third largest.
Analysts fear that an opportunity to stop the conflict spiralling into all-out civil war may be lost, while local NGOs are warning staff to brace for a rise in violence now that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan is over.
Internal documents from one international NGO viewed by the Guardian said employees should “expect full warfare” within days and that more intense violence would spread around the country as “whoever ends up with upper hand in Khartoum will look to flush out rival elements in other cities”.
Burhan appeared on television on Friday for the first time since fighting began, to deliver an Eid address as in previous years. Sitting at a desk, dressed in military uniform and with two Sudanese flags in the background, he made no mention of a truce.
“For Eid this year, our country is bleeding; destruction, desolation and the sound of bullets have taken precedence over joy,” he said. “We hope that we will come out of this ordeal more united … a single army, a single people … towards a civilian power.”
Army troops brandishing semi-automatic weapons were greeted by cheers on one street in Khartoum, footage released by the military on Friday showed. Witnesses told the Guardian they had seen a warm welcome for the regular military reinforcements who had been deployed into the capital. The army claimed it had begun “clearing hotbeds of rebel groups”.
There were reports on Friday afternoon that the RSF was retreating from several key locations in the capital and that the fighting was moving to the border of Khartoum state and Al Jazirah state to the south-east.
“I saw 62 RSF vehicles moving from the centre of Khartoum towards the east,” said a resident. “I don’t know if they are leaving totally or if they going to their camp there.”
Another person said: “There was an airstrike in our area this morning. I didn’t see the troops but the army was hitting the RSF on the ground. A rocket hit next to our house … The situation is devastating, all our neighbours have left, we are the only people in the whole block. I think the army’s position is stronger today. They have started to regain control on the ground.”
A military source said an RSF withdrawal from central Khartoum could be a tactic to hit back or it could be because fighters are low on fuel stocks. He said he thought the RSF could announce a new rebellion in eastern Sudan or in the restive Darfur region.
Burhan came to power in 2019 in partnership with Dagalo after months of popular protests led to the fall of the veteran dictator Omar al-Bashir. The two generals then crushed pro-democracy opposition and marginalised civilian political parties. As their rivalry has sharpened in recent months, both have claimed to represent ordinary people.
Neither man seems prepared to stop fighting. They have ignored calls from the UN secretary general, António Guterres, and the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, for a ceasefire of “at least” three days to mark Eid al-Fitr, the end of the Ramadan fast.
Other diplomats, including representatives of the African Union and several Middle East states, have been in touch with both sides over the last 48 hours to try to broker a truce.
The few hospitals in Khartoum and its twin city Omdurman that have remained open are overwhelmed with injured and sick people, prompting the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors to repeat a call for a ceasefire.
“We call on all citizens to exercise caution, stay home, close doors and windows and lie down,” the committee said. “We also call on these forces to be responsible and immediately stop fighting to protect innocent lives.”
The World Health Organization said on Friday it had recorded 413 deaths and 3,551 injured people since the fighting began on Saturday, but the true figures are thought to be much higher.
Alan Boswell, of the International Crisis Group, said there was “a very real risk of a prolonged and messy civil war” if the fighting continued and as new domestic and international actors joined the violence.
“There is still a window for there to be some kind of ceasefire and resolution. If … you are facing a real full-on civil war with outside actors and with Sudanese armed groups and parties getting pulled in then Sudan could collapse as a state,” Boswell said.
Experts said Burhan and Dagalo had tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, mineral riches and other resources – a combination that has led to prolonged conflict that has devastated other countries in the Middle East and Africa, from Lebanon and Syria to Libya and Ethiopia.
While thousands of people have left the capital, there has also been an exodus from elsewhere in Sudan. On Thursday, the UN said as many as 20,000 people had fled clashes in Darfur to seek safety in neighbouring Chad. The majority were women and children, who were sheltering in the open and lacked food, water and shelter.
“We are seeing that the refugees arriving over the border are traumatised and are arriving with very little provisions,” said Aleksandra Roulet-Cimpric, the International Rescue Committee’s Chad country director.
In Nyala, a city in South Darfur state, RSF forces have taken over many army bases. Dozens of facilities run by international aid organisations in the region have been looted or burned, as have government offices, and many civilians have been killed or wounded, according to local civil society sources.
Cyrus Paye, a project coordinator for Médecins Sans Frontières, described conditions at a hospital supported by the organisation in El Fasher, North Darfur state, as “catastrophic”. The hospital had treated 279 wounded patients since the fighting began, 44 of whom had died. Most of the casualties were civilians hit by stray bullets, including many children.
