Italy are the biggest favourites of the weekend to win their Six Nations match. And it is highly unlikely that sentence has been written before.
Admittedly, there is barely anything in it. At the time of writing, Italy are widely available at evens with a handicap of seven; for France and Ireland, the handicap is six. All three are a little shy of 2-1 on to win their respective matches. That is quite the company Italy are keeping.
Whether these odds are a reflection of Italy’s growing prowess or an alarming decline in the fortunes of their opponents in Rome on Saturday, Wales, is the next question. In avoidance of the weariest cliche/cop-out in sports commentary (“probably a bit of both”), one would have to say the greater part of the equation is the decline of Wales, which has been brutal indeed since the ejection of the last of the golden generation from the World Cup in 2023.
All the more poignant to see one of the bona fide greats of that era, Taulupe Faletau, airdropped straight into the side at the earliest opportunity. His presence at the base of the scrum will reassure coaches, fans and those teammates old enough to remember him alike, but the truth is he has played little more than three hours of rugby since he broke an arm in Wales’s final pool match, against Georgia, at France 2023.
That also happens to be the last time Wales won a Test, 13 matches ago. His comeback for Cardiff, in April last year, lasted half an hour, when he broke a shoulder against Ulster at Ravenhill. Since then, his comeback this season has been hampered by knee problems, but the medics have passed him fit for this match, which is crucial to Wales’s campaign – indeed, to their entire sense of self-worth – and Warren Gatland has wasted no time.
Gregor Townsend dismissed any notion that Scotland versus Ireland has become a grudge match before Sunday’s Six Nations showdown at Murrayfield.
The Scots have lost their past 10 meetings against the Irish – including two World Cup pool-stage fixtures – in a run stretching back to February 2017.
Asked if he detected a more intense rivalry between the sides in recent times, the Scotland head coach said: “Obviously they’ve won this fixture a number of times but we see this as a game where we respect Ireland a lot and admire what they’ve done over the last few years, but it doesn’t stand out as a needle game for us.”
Townsend, whose side started with a 31-19 win at home to Italy, acknowledged Scotland are underdogs for tomorrow’s match.
“Ireland are a top side and they have been for a number of years, clearly favourites for this game and looking to win three Six Nations in a row, which would be unprecedented,” he said.
Townsend has made three changes to his starting XV, with loosehead Rory Sutherland, back-row Jack Dempsey and versatile back Tom Jordan replacing Pierre Schoeman, Jamie Ritchie and Stafford -McDowall, respectively, all of whom drop to the bench.
Ireland interim head coach Simon Easterby, meanwhile, has backed Sam Prendergast to rise to the challenge of showcasing his “unbelievable talent” in his first Test match outside of Dublin.
Following a Six Nations debut in last weekend’s 27-22 bonus-point win over England, 21-year-old Prendergast has been retained ahead of Jack Crowley. Easterby admits it was a “tough selection call” on the back of Crowley’s impressive cameo against Steve Borthwick’s side and -suggested the No 10 jersey may change hands during the remainder of the championship.
Prendergast has faced hostile atmospheres at provincial level in recent months, helping Leinster to victories away to Munster and La Rochelle.
“We’re trying to allow him to keep growing, keep enjoying those experiences, learning from them, and they’re not always going to be perfect. Unless you have them, you won’t know how to handle them in the future," Easterby said.
The former captain Peter O’Mahony has been recalled in place of Ryan Baird at blindside flanker after being left out of Easterby’s matchday squad in round one, while centre Robbie Henshaw replaces Garry Ringrose in the other personnel change. O’Mahony has managed only five appearances for Munster in a season hampered by injury.
Faletau replaces Aaron Wainwright at No 8. Wainwright left the field in only the fourth minute of Wales’s drubbing in Paris in the opening round with a facial injury, which has healed sufficiently for him to assume a place on the bench.
Faletau, with his haul of more than 100 caps and 34 years, joins the 33-year-old full-back Liam Williams, with his haul of nearly 100, as reference points from that golden era. Beyond these two, Tomos Williams and Josh Adams were involved in Wales’s last grand slam, in 2019, as were Wainwright, Elliot Dee and Nicky Smith on the bench, but that is it for this team and any acquaintance with a glorious past.
Another from 2019, Owen Watkin, left the Stade de France injured in the first half with a knee injury that will put him out of the rest of the tournament. He is replaced, in the only other change, by Eddie James, who makes his Six Nations debut. At 6ft 4in and 17st, the young Scarlet (he is 22) will bring a physical presence, at least, to the midfield.
A 14th consecutive defeat for Wales does not bear thinking about for Gatland and his paymasters. Where would any of them turn after that? The dismissal of Alex King as backs coach before the championship felt more than a little like a token gesture of scapegoatery, but Gatland himself might start to shift uneasily in his seat were defeat No 14 to follow this weekend.
To those of us looking in from the outside, the feeling is that if Gatland cannot make anything of Wales’s current crop, who can? The problems run much deeper in Welsh rugby, for so long glossing over structural incoherence with that exceptional show team. Now that the latter has gone the way of all flesh, the former yawns alarmingly.
Can Italy inflict the latest wound? Structural issues of their own have quietly held back their show team, despite more than their fair share of great players, but there seems to have been progress on that front, which is percolating through to the Azzurri. Their 2023 World Cup, including as it did horrendous yet depressingly familiar thrashings at the hands of France and New Zealand, suggested same old, same old, but since then Italy have recorded their most successful Six Nations, winning twice last year (including against Wales) and securing a draw in Paris.
They were comprehensively outplayed by Scotland last weekend, but there was a hardness about them, which kept them in the game. Gonzalo Quesada has made only one change to the starting team, Niccolò Cannone replacing Dino Lamb, who drops to the bench, in the second row. On the bench, the latest sensation, Simone Gesi, is replaced by Jacopo Trulla, the former injured when scythed down short of the line in Edinburgh.
But Italy face a new dynamic this weekend. Where Wales’s youngsters are already being written off, they are now expected to win. When even the bookies agree, Italy know they have arrived.
