The delayed monsoon might not hamper agriculture prospects this year. Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU) has forecast that the prices of crops such as groundnut, Bengal gram and cotton would be close to or slightly on the higher side of the minimum support price (MSP). The price of paddy is expected to be less than or little above the MSP announced by the Union government.
The AMIC forecast that the common variety paddy would be sold at a price in the range of ₹1,975 to ₹2,250 a quintal as against the MSP of ₹2,183 a quintal. Similarly, the A grade variety would be sold for ₹2,100 to ₹2,325 a quintal against the MSP of ₹2,203.
The normal chilli prices are expected to hover between ₹16,500 and ₹19,550 a quintal, whereas the special variety will be priced between ₹18,000 and ₹22,100 a quintal. The price for cotton is expected to be between ₹5,800 and ₹6,750 a quintal this year.
As per the AMIC forecast, paddy would be cultivated on 23.95 lakh hectares, cotton on 6.20 lakh hectares, turmeric on about 20 lakh hectares and groundnut on 7.62 lakh hectares.
When contacted, AMIC principal investigator G. Raghunadha Reddy said Kharif harvest of pulses, chilli, cotton, groundnut and millets may fetch better market prices. Farmers can expect good net returns as the forecast prices of major crops in the State are close to the MSP.
The cultivation of redgram, blackgram, greengram, groundnut, cotton and chilli in Kharif may provide positive returns because of the expected better market prices and low cost of production when compared to paddy, he said.
Dr. Raghunadha Reddy, however, was quick to add that the whole analysis is based on the market intelligence premised on normal climate, area to be cultivated during the next crop season and no abnormalities happening in domestic and international demand.
Asked about the accuracy of the forecast done last year, Dr. Raghunadha Reddy said that last year’s forecast was 86% to 95% accurate. In some crops, the accuracy was more than 95%. Except Bengal gram, prices of the remaining crops were close to the forecast, he added.
