Almost all of the foreign backpackers granted a working holiday-maker visa since Australia announced it would lift its border restrictions remain overseas.
The Department of Home Affairs says it has granted 31,000 of the visas to people who have been permitted to travel to Australia since December 15.
"There are currently almost 30,000 working holiday-maker visa holders outside Australia," a spokesperson said.
But there are government estimates that up to 24,000 working holiday-makers could arrive in Australia by late April, when a visa rebate is due to expire.
Fruit and vegetable growers have welcomed the return of the backpackers, but warn it will be some time before the pre-COVID workforce is restored.
Tyson Cattle from industry group AusVeg said the sector had been "decimated" by the labour shortage.
"We're certainly not expecting a flurry of backpackers to take us back to the previous heights of having 150,000 backpackers in the country at any one time any time soon," he said.
Farm or beach?
Australia's fruit and vegetable farmers rely heavily on backpackers to harvest their crops, with more than half the workforce typically coming from overseas.
Mr Cattle said before COVID restrictions closed international borders in March 2020 the horticulture industry employed up to 45,000 overseas workers a year.
He said even when travellers returned they might not be inclined to get start work straight away.
"If a backpacker is coming out and looking to start their holiday and it is a work and holiday visa, the reality is they're likely to try and enjoy their time at the beach, or at the pub, or travelling up along the coast as opposed to getting stuck into their 88 days from the get-go," Mr Cattle said.
Travellers are required to work in specific industries, including farming or tourism and hospitality in rural areas for a minimum of 88 days in order to extend their visa.
Free trade fears
Last year Australia agreed to a trade deal with the UK that meant British backpackers would be exempt from any requirement to work on Australian farms, removing about 10,000 backpackers from the workforce.
Mr Cattle said growers expected future trade deals could seek similar exemptions.
"Our expectation is that the European Union would look over the fence and ask for the same thing that the UK got in its free trade agreement — I don't think anybody is under any illusions about that," he said.
"This is where the agriculture visa comes to the forefront, if we're able to counter the reduction of backpacker labour, we can balance that with the numbers that will build with the agriculture visa."
The agriculture visa was announced last year with Agriculture Minister David Littleproud initially suggesting it would bring foreign workers to Australian farms before last Christmas.
But so far no country has signed up to the visa and it's unclear how many workers would actually be recruited, or when they could arrive.
The government recently announced it would refund the $495 visa application fee for working holiday-maker visa holders who travelled to Australia before April 19.
There are more than 18,000 Pacific and Timorese workers in Australia on labour schemes who are permitted to work on farms.
