A generational divide in British politics is playing into Nigel Farage’s hands, as his party Reform UK tops the Techne UK weekly tracker poll for the first time.
Overall in the Techne poll, Reform leads with 26 per cent (up 1), Labour is second on 25 per cent (down 1), and the Tories are trailing unchanged on 22 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent (down 1) and the Greens are unchanged on 7 per cent.
According to Electoral Calculus, if this was the result in a general election, Reform would be the biggest party on 199 seats, with Labour on 183 and the Tories on 145.
More significantly, the findings reveal a generational split, with Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) on one side, and Millennials (1981 to 1996) and the newest young voters from Generation Z (1997 to 2012) on the other.
Voters aged 45 and over are now turning to Mr Farage’s party in greater numbers than to Reform’s rivals, with the Tories in particular losing out. In the 45 to 54 age group, Reform has 25 per cent to Labour’s 24 per cent and the Tories’ 22 per cent.
The lead grows in the 55 to 64 category, with Reform on 29 and Labour and the Tories each on 23. Among pensioners aged 65 and over, Reform has 32 per cent, the Tories 26 per cent, and Labour just 18 per cent.
But Reform is barely winning the support of voters aged under 45, with Labour easily topping those age groups.
Among voters aged 35 to 44, Labour leads with 29 per cent, with the Tories and Reform both on 21 per cent. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labour has 36 per cent, Reform 20 per cent, and the Tories 17 per cent.
It means Reform is appealing more to voters who are typically more likely to have a mortgage or own their home outright, with job security or a final salary pension.
But despite reports that Reform was winning among younger people, Mr Farage’s message is struggling to pick up voters from so-called “generation rent” – under-45s who have much poorer job security and are more likely to turn to Labour.
Compared with other pollsters, Techne UK has been less generous to Reform in its weighting calculation, which is why this is the first week in which Mr Farage’s party has come top.
With pensioners in particular abandoning the Tories and switching to Reform, having traditionally been seen as the core of the Tory voter base, Techne’s chief executive Michela Morizzo argued that the survey of 1,639 voters this week was more a reflection of how poorly Kemi Badenoch’s party is performing.
She said: “With the Conservatives staying stationary at 22 per cent of national vote share, Kemi Badenoch’s party continues to very much struggle when compared to Reform UK and Labour.
“Significantly, this poll lead for Reform UK is not surprising, because it is clear from the data-picture that the Conservatives are facing a deep crisis. And where does this crisis come from? Public opinion is very cold towards the party, but internal reasons play an important role for sure.
“At the same time, we have to consider how difficult is for any political party fighting against a surging positive wave as the one of Reform.”
