Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
German conservatives announced a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats promising to form a new “strong and effective” government, led by Friedrich Merz (15:16, 15:26, 15:33).
The 146-page manifesto agreed by the parties will offer the framework for the new government, expected to be in place in early May (16:00).
Merz promised the government will target issues that allowed for the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (16:53), which earlier today came top in the national voting intention poll for the first time in history (10:31 and 10:39).
The manifesto proposes tough reforms on migration and internal security to address voters’ concerns, (16:15), and reaffirms the government’s commitment to play an important role in Europe and transatlantic alliance in paragraphs on foreign policy and defence (15:54). But his proposals were criticised by the opposition parties (17:01).
Asked about his message for US president Donald Trump, Merz said that “Germany is back on track,” and promised it would play an important role in the European Union (16:18).
Elsewhere,
The EU has agreed to impose retaliatory tariffs on €21bn (£18bn) of US goods, targeting farm produce and products from Republican states, in Europe’s first act of retaliation against Donald Trump’s tariffs (15:11 and 17:23).
Separately, the EU has also revealed details of a €20bn (£17bn) plan to create new sites equipped with vast supercomputers in Europe to develop the next generation of artificial intelligence models, while opening the door to amending its landmark law that regulates the technology (17:26).
King Charles III has warned peace is “never to be taken for granted” during a historic address to Italy’s parliament (17:17), with senior officials talking about clean energy on the margins of his visit (17:18).
Tens of thousands of Greeks have staged protest rallies to demand increased wages amid rising living costs, hours after the country was paralysed by a 24-hour general strike (17:07).
Estonia’s president has signed into law a constitutional amendment banning non-EU citizens from taking part in local elections, a move targeting the large Russian minority in the Baltic state (13:01).
Romania said it “has not received any official information” on alleged plans to pull US troops out of central and eastern Europe after media reports suggesting such scenario (9:49).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Trade war 'casts dark shadow over prospects' of Irish economy, finance minister warns
And more on tariffs, Ireland’s finance minister has said that the commencing trade war between the US, the EU and the rest of the world “casts a dark shadow over prospects” of the Irish economy.
Paschal Donohoe said Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals would contribute to investor uncertainty generated by his other tariffs – on steel, on cars, on China and reciprocal tariffs on the EU.
“These moves are deeply regrettable. Tariffs are economically destructive for all involved – they trigger lose-lose outcomes,” he told the Dáil.
“Tariffs, and even the threat of tariffs, also create uncertainty which prompts businesses to hold back investment and households to increase precautionary saving,” he said.
“The current uncertainty means that tariffs were probably already having a detrimental impact on economic activity around the world, even before the latest announcements from the White House,” he said.
“It is no exaggeration to say that the world is changing,” he told the Irish parliament noting the US has now imposed tariffs on China totalling 104%, making the tax paid on imports higher than the value of the product itself.
EU reveals details of €20bn plan for AI development
Separately, the EU has also revealed details of a €20bn (£17bn) plan to create new sites equipped with vast supercomputers in Europe to develop the next generation of artificial intelligence models, while opening the door to amending its landmark law that regulates the technology.
Publishing a strategy to turn Europe into an “AI continent”, the European Commission vice-president Henna Virkkunen said the technology was at the heart of making Europe more competitive, secure and technologically sovereign, adding: “The global race for AI is far from over.”
The EU is attempting to catch up with the US and China, which have taken a lead in pioneering the technology that increasingly powers shopping websites and self-driving cars, generates text, and is predicted to play a transformative role in healthcare, security and defence, and advanced manufacturing, among other sectors.
In a separate 2024 report, Stanford found that no EU country made the top five for “vibrancy” in AI, a metric that considered private investment, patents and research. It ranked the UK in third place behind the US and China, with France in sixth place and Germany eighth.
Details on EU's retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump's tariffs
I earlier brought you the official confirmation of the EU’s retaliatory tariffs against the US on trade as a result of Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium (15:11).
Here is a more complete write up by our Brussels correspondent, Jennifer Rankin:
The EU has agreed to impose retaliatory tariffs on €21bn (£18bn) of US goods, targeting farm produce and products from Republican states, in Europe’s first act of retaliation against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The EU plans to introduce 25% tariffs on scores of goods from almonds to yachts, with the first duties being collected from 15 April, while the bulk apply from 15 May and the remainder from 1 December.
All member states voted for the retaliation, with the exception of Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is one of Trump’s strongest supporters.
The EU decision came after China announced it was hitting all US goods with 84% tariffs from Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced.
The EU measures are a response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminium announced by the US president in February. The EU has chosen goods that can be easily sourced from elsewhere, while some targets are intended to inflict political pain on key Republican states.
The tariffs include US soya beans, grown abundantly in Louisiana, the home state of the House of Representatives speaker, Mike Johnson.
Ahead of the vote, analysis of the leaked list of customs codes by Politico found that EU duties would hit up to $13.5bn (£10.6bn) worth of exports from red states, including beef from Kansas and Nebraska, cigarettes from Florida and wood products from North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.
The commission has said that the second phase of the EU’s response – retaliatory measures in response to tariffs on cars and the sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April – would be presented “early next week”.
Full story:
UK and Italy talk about clean energy on margins of King Charles's visit
Also in Rome, David Lammy, the UK’s foreign secretary, met his counterpart, Italy’s foreign minister and deputy prime minister, Antonio Tajani, for talks on clean energy on Wednesday, including on the issue of “critical minerals”, which are essential to the manufacture of low-carbon goods, such as solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles.
The ministers agreed on the need to boost renewable energy around the world, in the midst of economic turmoil – forming a counterpoint to Donald Trump, who has issued fresh executive orders blocking climate policies by several states, and supporting coal.
It is often forgotten that Italy was the UK’s partner in hosting the Cop26 climate summit in 2021. That partnership was agreed in late 2019, months before the Covid-19 crisis overtook the world, which overshadowed the conference and made joint events more difficult in the run-up. But the countries have continued a dialogue since then, to push for greater adoption of low-carbon technologies and the creation of green jobs, which has continued despite the differences in outlook of their respective leaders.
King Charles, who is visiting Italy, and Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella were expected to drop in on the talks in the late afternoon. Later this month, the UK will also host a global conference in London, along with the International Energy Agency, to discuss energy security.
Lammy said:
“The UK and Italy are strengthening our partnership to unlock growth opportunities, create jobs and accelerate the global transition to clean, secure, affordable energy. The shift to clean energy is a global challenge that requires us all – governments, energy businesses and the financial sector – to work together.
Our talks in Rome are a key moment to unlock clean growth and build robust clean energy supply chains, including for critical minerals – for the benefit of us all.”
Tajani said:
“Energy is a key driver of growth for our businesses, our economies and our societies. Italy and the United Kingdom share common objectives with regard to the energy transition, which are also clearly outlined in our 2023 Memorandum of Understanding on Bilateral Cooperation: technological neutrality, achieving net zero emissions by 2050, phasing out coal for energy production and increasing the role of renewables and new technologies for the production of clean energy.
“We actively cooperated for the success of the Cop26 in Glasgow, launching a major project at the 2021 pre-CoP in Milan for the involvement of young people committed to the fight against climate change.
We also share the vision that inspired many initiatives promoted by Italy during its presidency of the G7, especially with regard to access to energy in Africa, where we are actively engaged also through the Mattei Plan.”
Peace is 'never to be taken for granted,' King Charles tells Italian parliament
King Charles III has warned peace is “never to be taken for granted” during a historic address to Italy’s parliament. He also paid tribute to the close ties between the two nations and said “Italy will always be in my heart”, PA news agency reported.
PA said that the king, who is making a four-day state visit to Italy with his wife, told the politicians in the Chamber of Deputies in Rome: “Britain and Italy stand today united in defence of the democratic values we share.”
He made history by becoming the first British monarch to address both houses of Italy’s parliament and, after mentioning the Second World War, said: “Today, sadly, the echoes of those times, which we fervently hope had been consigned to history, reverberate across our continent.
“Our younger generations can see in the news every day on their smartphones and tablets that peace is never to be taken for granted.”
PA noted that sections of the speech were delivered in Italian, and in a lighter moment the King referenced his wedding anniversary, telling the politicians from the chamber of deputies and the senate of the republic in their own language: “The timing is all the more special to us both since today also marks our 20th wedding anniversary.”
“And by the way, I hope I’m not ruining Dante’s language so much that I’m never invited to Italy again.”
He earlier also met with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
Greeks protest to demand increased wages amid rising living costs
Tens of thousands of Greeks have staged protest rallies to demand increased wages amid rising living costs, hours after the country was paralysed by a 24-hour general strike.
The walk-out, part of an acceleration in industrial action by unions, brought much of the nation’s transport system to a standstill, disrupting Easter travel by grounding flights both in and out of Greece, keeping ferries docked at ports and bringing trains to a halt. Private and public sector unions, who called the walkout, said they were “striking for the obvious. Pay rises and collective labour contracts now.”
Mired in crisis for almost a decade, the debt-stricken country was forced to enact stringent austerity measures in exchange for €290bn in bailout loans from the EU and IMF with the cuts affecting households far and wide.
As a result Greece currently has one of the lowest minimum wage rates in terms of purchasing power in the European Union, with families struggling to make ends meet amid soaring food, power and housing costs.
“Young people, like me, are forced to work several jobs and still can’t make ends meet,” said Melina Dinopoulou Veliz, a 21-year-old dental technician, posing with her student friend Angeliki Pontiaki in front of the Greek parliament after joining the rally. “There are so few prospects for our generation which is why so many of us are forced to seek better lives abroad.”
The private sector union, GSEE, which represents more than two million workers, said living costs were such that “we’re buying fewer goods by 10 % compared to 2019.” The union is not only calling for collective work contracts and higher wages but the reinstatement of bonuses scrapped over the past decade including an annual “Christmas gift.”
In the backlash, the centre-right government, now in its sixth year in office, has increased the monthly minimum wage by a cumulative 35 % to 880 euros and vowed to raise it to 950 euros by 2027.
Greece has some of the highest telecommunication and energy costs in Europe and, say protestors who have this year taken to the streets en masse over a deadly train crash, some of the worst public services.
“There just seems to be so much injustice,” said Pontiaki, in her final year of a sociology degree at Athens’ Panteion university. “The government is very good at not listening to us, and very quick to put police on the street but it can’t deny us our right to protest, it can’t take that away.”
Right, let’s take a quick look at events elsewhere now.
Opposition parties criticises Merz's 'ignorant' plan and 'act of surrender'
When it comes to reactions, AfD’s Alice Weidel said the programme was “an act of surrender” on Merz’s part alleging he gave in to SPD’s demands.
The Left’s co-leader Ines Schwerdtner said the manifesto was “ignorant” on the needs of the working class and did not address “the major challenges of our time,” such as social cohesion, rents and inflation.
The Greens’ co-leader Franziska Brantner said the document was disappointing.
New German coalition to target issues that fuelled rise of far-right, Merz says - other quotes
In other quotes from the press conference, Friedrich Merz also:
said the new coalition will target issues that allowed for the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which earlier today came top in the national voting intention poll for the first time in history, as he said the AfD’s electoral result in February was a “wake-up call”;
called for a “common, European response” to US tariffs and trade rules adopted by China, but insisted that the best response would be to improve Germany’s competitiveness globally;
defended proposed cuts in civil service, saying the government will reduce the federal administration by 8%, but not through “hiring an Elon Musk here who is doing things like these in Washington,” but instead “doing it in a socially acceptable, sensible and measured way.”
Updated
Did you spot anything else? Did I miss anything?
Let me know: jakub.krupa@theguardian.com or on social media (X, BlueSky).
Coalition agreement - other policies
Just a few more things from the German coalition programme that attracted my attention…
The programme lists a number of proposals on innovation, mobilisation of funds for investment through a new “Germany Fund”, and changes to financial regulations, including reforms to reduce capital requirements for infrastructure projects and ensure “faster and streamlined state aid procedures.”
The new coalition also promised extensive support for the country’s embattled automotive industry, with a series of proposals to promote electric mobility as part of a push to cleaner economy. Looking more into the future, it even includes lines on future mobility, automated driving and space exploration.
On trade, the document reiterates Germany’s support for “a pragmatic and rules-based trade policy,” promising a swift ratification of the EU’s agreements with Mercosur and Mexico.
In an apparent reference to Donald Trump’s actions, it says the coalition wants to avoid a trade conflict and will push for the reduction of tariffs.
In a defence of the German high street, it also pledges to “protect retailers from unfair competition” from “the Far East” – I think they mean China – with a push for European standards.
The manifesto also promises to reduce bureaucracy requirements for small and medium companies, and focus on “simpler” procurement and “faster” approvals.
There are also numerous proposed reforms of work and unemployment laws, including the push for a minimum wage of 15 euros in 2026 and to exempt overtime work from taxes.
It also contains provisions on pursuing the goal of climate neutrality by 2045, supporting “climate adaptation,” and a push to use more renewable sources of energy.
Updated
'Key message to Trump: Germany is back on track,' Merz says
Asked about his message for US president Donald Trump, Friedrich Merz says in English that “the key message … is: Germany is back on track.”
“Germany will fulfil its obligations in terms of defence, and Germany is willing to strengthen [our] own competitiveness.
And that is not just Germany; that is Europe, the European Union, and Germany will be again a very strong partner within the European Union, and we will bring the European Union forward.”
SPD’s Lars Klingbeil adds: “I fully agree.”
Coalition agreement – migration, national security
The manifesto also goes into some details on the highly contentious issue of national security and migration – which was at the centre of the clash between the two parties earlier this year, with CDU/CSU pushing for radical changes and winning a parliamentary vote with the support of the far-right AfD.
On migration, the document says that Germany “is and will remain” a cosmopolitan country, but needs to effectively combat irregular migration, with multiple changes to that effect.
It says the coalition will terminate voluntary federal admission programmes and not open new ones, and suspend family reunification scheme for people offered “subsidiary protection for a limited period of two years,” but not the most vulnerable groups.
The paper says the new government will keep controls on German borders, and work to tighten rules on asylum. The parties want to expand the list of safe countries of origin, and seek to fast-track removals of people who had their asylum application rejected or committed serious crimes.
It also includes a number of proposals on promoting integration, including support for legal migrants. As I reported earlier, it promises to abolish the “turbo naturalisation” route, closing the path to get the German passport after three years.
On national security, the document talks about introducing a three-month data retention requirement to help federal police’s investigations, as well as backs the use of AI-powered and automated data searches and biometric checks “for certain purposes” and, more broadly, automated license plate recognition technologies.
The programme also says about the need to strenghten the cooperation between existing security bodies, particularly to fight “cybercrime, espionage and sabotage.”
It also directly condemns “all forms of violence” and radicalisms – pointedly criticising right-wing extremism and Islamism – and promises to fight algorithms that promote radicalisation, including under the EU’s Digital Services Act.
Merz suggests he could formally become chancellor in early May
During the press conference, Merz gets asked about the timeline for the new government.
He says the final arrangements are down to the president of the Bundestag and the approval processes, particularly within the SPD, but the CDU will meet on 28 April, and the formal election of the chancellor could take place the following week, that is w/c 5 May.
He says there is no exact date in place yet – but clearly this answer suggests him getting into the office in early May.
Updated
Coalition agreement – preamble, foreign, defence policy
As the leaders speak, I’m flicking through the 146-page coalition agreement (in German, here).
In the preamble, the document focuses on the parties’ responsibility for “facing historic challenges,” as they warn against the enemies of liberal democracy and a range of threats against Germany.
Their central pledge is that “the parties of the democratic centre can shape the country together successfully.”
I will look at different parts of the programmes, but starting on national security and foreign policy, the document warns that Germany’s security is “under greater threat than at any time since the end of the cold war,” with Russia identified as the main threat.
It says that the coalition’s commitment to Nato and the EU “remains unwavering,” and the relationship with the US “remains of central importance.”
On the EU, it says the bloc “needs a strong Germany,” as it reaffirms its commitment to the process of European integration and hints at plans to seek closer relations with France and Poland.
It also calls for a more aggressive enforcement against countries failing to comply with the EU’s values and the rule of law.
The document says the coalition will “provide comprehensive support to Ukraine,” with readiness to provide further support to Kyiv. It reaffirms the long-term prospect of Nato membership for Ukraine.
The UK – “even after Brexit” – is also listed as “one of the closest partners,” with plans for a “comprehensive bilateral ... agreement” in the future.
The deal also acknowledges the relationships with Israel, Turkey, among others, and offers broad support for the EU enlargement process looking at the countries in Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova.
On China, it says it will seek cooperation “where this is in the German and European interest,” but also notes some of challenges and promises to “confront China where necessary.”
On defence, the document says it will want to “strengthen the operational readiness of the armed forces,” with more investment and through embracing “future technologies,” on top of commitments I covered earlier.
Updated
Investments, migration, security among early priorities, Merz says
Presenting the outline of the agreement reached – the detail is written on 146 pages of the deal – Merz talks about his focus on bringing more investment with changes to corporate and energy taxes and incentives seeking to boost the economy.
He then moves on to migration policy, promising “a new course” with a number of stricter policies aimed to “end irregular migration” by stricter border controls, tightening of asylum rules and push to repatriate those illegally in Germany.
He also says the new government will suspend family reunification rules, and increase the number of countries classified as safe. He also hints at changes to citizenship rules to slow them down, with the earliest possible naturalisation after five years.
Turning to security, he lists proposed new policies, including on data retention, and says he will create a new Federal Security Council, based in the chancellor’s office, to manage national crises.
He also promises higher spending on defence and security, and hints at a proposal to strengthen military service on a voluntary basis.
The task of modernising the state and leading on digital services for citizens will be given to a new digital ministry, he says, amid a broader push to reduce the federal administration.
Merz confirms that the negotiated text will now be submitted for approval by both parties.
He says the agreed text is the result of “intensive consultations and negotiations,” as he thanks the negotiating teams for their work.
He says that he would have preferred to adopt changes to Germany’s constitution only after forming the government, but that was not an option with changes to the parliamentary arithmetics.
Turning to the geopolitical context in which the negotiations took place, he notes that the Russian aggression on Ukraine continues with Putin “showing no willingness to end the war,” but also acknowledges “new turbulence” triggered by the US administration’s decisions on tariffs.
He says that this makes it even more important for Germany to have a government “capable of solving the problems we face” and assuming a strong role in Europe
Germany to send 'clear signal' of 'strong, effective government' under new coalition, Merz says
Opening the press conference in Berlin, Merz says the coalition has “a strong plan” as a result of negotiations, which will send “a clear signal” to both Germans and European partners that Germany is getting a “strong and effective government.”
Updated
EU adopts trade countermeasures against US
Meanwhile in Brussels, the European Commission has confirmed it secured the necessary support to impose trade countermeasures against the US, retaliating for its steel and aluminium tariffs.
The commission’s statement says that “the EU considers US tariffs unjustified and damaging, causing economic harm to both sides, as well as the global economy.”
“The EU has stated its clear preference to find negotiated outcomes with the US, which would be balanced and mutually beneficial,” it added.
But it adds that the countermeasures will soon enter into force, once final checks are conmpleted, with duties set to be collected from Tuesday, 15 April.
“These countermeasures can be suspended at any time, should the US agree to a fair and balanced negotiated outcome,” it added.
German coalition press conference gets under way
The German press conference gets under way, with presumed next chancellor Friedrich Merz kicking us off.
The coalition agreement document focuses on the parties’ aim to take “responsibility for Germany,” according to the document’s cover published by a Politico reporter on social media.
King Charles to address Italian parliament soon
By the way, if some of you prefer to watch the British King Charles’s address to the Italian parliament instead, you can follow it here:
German coalition announcement expected shortly
Lecterns are now ready and out in Berlin as we wait for the leaders of CDU/CSU and SPD to tell us more about their coalition agreement to form the next German government.
I will bring you all the latest lines here.
Hungary to oppose EU retaliatory measures on US
Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó said Hungary would oppose the European Commission’s proposal to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, warning that “escalation is not the answer.”
“Such measures would cause further damage to European economy and citizens by raising prices. The only way forward is negotiations, not retaliation,” Szijjártó argued.
But unlike with some other policies, Hungary’s opposition will not have no impact on the proposal here as there is no need for unanimity among the member states when it comes to trade decisions.
The package is still expected to be passed this afternoon.
Updated
China retaliates against US tariffs - business live
European leaders will be watching with interest – or more accurately, with growing horror – the escalating trade war between the US and China, after the Chinese ministry of finance said it will impose 84% tariffs on US goods from Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced, according to Reuters.
The move – and later comments by senior US officials suggesting that “everything is on the table,” including removing Chinese stocks from US exchanges – prompted all sorts of falls in the markets, and you can follow them live on our business blog here:
‘Half the place would be blown to bits’: the Irish villages under threat from Trump’s tariffs
And here’s more from Lisa on the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs in Ireland -
Just across the bay from the historic town of Cobh, the last port of call for the Titanic in 1912 on her ill-fated maiden voyage, lies the source of some of the world’s biggest life-savers and givers.
Sildenafil, the active ingredient in Viagra, medicinal compounds for the treatment of cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, Crohn’s and Parkinson’s disease, all are manufactured within two miles of the deep port of Ringaskiddy in County Cork.
After more than 50 years, however, it is all under threat after Donald Trump accused Ireland of stealing America’s pharmaceutical industry and vowed to “force” US companies, jobs and taxes to return home.
This has concentrated the minds of local politicians, who have called on the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to visit the area. She met pharmaceutical companies in Brussels on Tuesday to hear that tariffs could “expedite” a shift to the US.
“If Pfizer and the others closed … the collateral damage would be huge,” said John Twomey, something of a local historian and treasurer of the local Gaelic Athletic Association in Shanbally, a tiny village a two-minute drive from Pfizer’s entrance.
“Half the place would be blown to bits, all the workers, the subcontractors, from the guys supplying the toilet rolls, to the farms supplying meat for the canteens.”
EU pharmaceuticals warn of 'risk of exodus' as result of Trump's threats on tariffs
Earlier today I brought you Donald Trump’s comments overnight on “major” tariffs to be announced “very shortly” on pharmaceuticals (9:20).
My colleague Lisa O’Carroll looked at the risks such measures could pose for Europe:
Pharmaceutical companies in the EU have warned of a “risk of exodus” to the US as stocks in the sector slid around the world on the back of Donald Trump’s renewed threat to impose tariffs on US drugs imports.
Drugmakers’ shares across Europe and India, another foreign drugs hub, slipped on Wednesday after Trump indicated further carnage was on the way in addition to the 20% “reciprocal tariffs” on imports that kicked in overnight.
Pharmaceuticals have so far been exempted from the levies, but on Tuesday evening the US president told an event at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he would announce a large tariff on drugs imports “very shortly”.
Trump claimed the tariff would incentivise drug companies to move their operations to the US, but has not said when and by how much he plans to raise the levy.
EU pharma firms have called on the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to push for “rapid and radical action” to mitigate the “risk of exodus” to the US after a meeting in Brussels.
Read her story in full here:
Updated
Estonia signs into law rules banning non-EU citizens from local elections
Estonia’s president has signed into law a constitutional amendment banning non-EU citizens from taking part in local elections, a move targeting the large Russian minority in the Baltic state.
The amendment, the first to the country’s constitution since it was drafted in 1992 and passed by parliament in late March, comes in response to growing concerns about Estonia’s security three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, AFP noted.
In a statement on his office’s website, president Alar Karis said that the change had “very serious consequences,” but insisted it was “undoubtedly legitimate.”
But he noted that “it is equally important that the people who lost their right to vote do not feel that the state wants to exclude them from social life, or that it sees each and every one of them as a threat to security.”
He said that the parliament may choose to look into how to “guarantee that people who have lived here for a long time and who are loyal to Estonia will still have an open path to Estonian citizenship, even if other countries have prevented them from freely choosing their citizenship.”
According to Estonian media, the measure will affect approximately 83,000 Russians in Estonia (6% of the country’s 1.4m population), a fraction of the broader 370,000 Russian-speaking minority in the country.
The next local elections are scheduled for October.
German coalition deal reportedly agreed, with press conference this afternoon
Leaders of the German conservative and socialist parties have reportedly agreed on a coalition deal to form the next government, German media are reporting.
The German press agency dpa said that the leaders of the two parties will take part in a joint press conference 3pm German time (2pm UK) to present the result of their talks.
But the deal would still have to be approved by a vote of the SPD’s 357,000 members, whic is expected to take at least ten days, meaning CDU leader Friedrich Merz is unlikely to be formally confirmed as the next German chancellor before May.
Media speculations suggest the CDU/CSU will take the interior and foreign ministries, taking on the critical job of resolving the country’s migration crisis and finding Germany’s place in the world despite global uncertainty surrounding the new US administration.
Early reports suggest that the SPD, which led the outgoing government of Olaf Scholz, will keep the finance and defence portfolios, leaving the popular defence minister Boris Pistorius in the next cabinet.
This development is very timely as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, has topped a federal voting intention poll for the first time in history (10:31), exploiting the political limbo amid global uncertainty (10:39).
UK to seek improved trade with EU in response to Trump's tariffs, Russia's war against Ukraine
UK finance minister Rachel Reeves told the Financial Times newspaper (£) that the UK would seek to improve its trade arrangements with the European Union, partially in response to Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
In an interview with the paper, she said there was “a greater willingness” from countries around the world to look at ways to resolve barriers, and the challenging global environment – from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to trade disruptions caused by Trump – “mean there is an even greater imperative to improve our trading relationships with Europe.”
Her comments come ahead of next month’s first EU-UK summit in London, widely touted as an opportunity to progress the “reset” in relations between the bloc and its former member state.
Tariffs will hit working, middle classes hardest, Spain's Sánchez warns
Speaking during a visit to Vietnam on Tuesday Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said his country supported free trade, adding that tariffs would hit the working and the middle classes hardest.
“We support an international order that’s based on rules, free trade, and economic openness,” he said. “We think trade wars benefit no one and harm everyone … Every country loses and those who lose most of all are the workers and the middle classes of our countries.”
During the visit, the socialist PM and his Vietnamese counterpart, Pham Minh Chinh, signed a joint declaration aiming to boost ties to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership.
Italy halves 2025 growth forecast over tariff fears
The Italian government is preparing to lower its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.2 to 0.6 percent amid concerns about US tariffs, a government source told AFP.
This forecast is included in the economic roadmap for the coming years, which is expected to be approved by prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet later on Wednesday.
Italy, the eurozone’s third largest economy, is the world’s fourth largest exporter and risks being hard hit by the new tariffs.
AFP noted that around 10 percent of Italy’s exports go to the United States, and last year Rome had a trade surplus with Washington of 38.9 billion euros.
Meloni has criticised US president Donald Trump’s tariffs, including duties of 20 percent on imports from the European Union, and has urged both sides to reach a deal.
The leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party announced on Tuesday that she would visit Washington on 17 April to talk to Trump directly.
AfD gains in polls as Germany faces dire economic news and political limbo - snap analysis
We’ve seen the AfD, which came in second in February’s general election, gaining in the polls in recent weeks as Germany has faced a deluge of dire economic news while in political limbo.
The first-place CDU/CSU of Friedrich Merz, the prospective new chancellor, has been racing to cobble together a coalition deal with the Social Democrats (SPD) and they are believed to be in the final stretch, with a pact likely as soon as this afternoon.
But a sense that the EU’s top economy is adrift while facing the catastrophic impact of the Trump tariffs for a major exporting nation has hurt confidence in the new government even before it has taken office.
Merz has largely kept to his pledge to avoid the spotlight while the negotiations were going on but this left a vacuum often filled by the AfD, whose top leadership has been railing against the mainstream parties as incapable of facing up to Germany’s deep-seated structural problems.
The conservative leader has also faced criticism within his own camp of backing away from the fiscal discipline and hard line on immigration he promised during the campaign in order to win the support of the SPD -- leaving more flanks open for AfD attacks.
A poll last week showed that Merz had only 25% support among German voters – about 10 points lower than when he won the election.
Far-right Alternative für Deutschland tops federal poll in Germany for first time
It has been long coming, and here it is – of all days, today.
Just as we wait for the coalition talks between the conservatives from CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats, SPD, to finally conclude 40 days after the last federal election, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland has come top in the latest Ipsos poll on German voting intentions, at 25%, one point ahead of the election winners, CDU/CSU at 24%.
The Social Democrats are third with 15%, with the Greens and the Left both on 11%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is fifth at 5%, and the liberals from the Free Democratic Party at 4%.
This is the first time the AfD has topped a federal election poll in Germany in history, putting further pressure on the Brandmauer (firewall) arrangement seeking to marginalise the party in German politics.
AfD’s co-leader Alice Weidel immediately reacted to the news, saying in a social media post that:
Citizens want political change – not a “business as usual” coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD!
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Romania 'has not received any official information' on US plans to withdraw troops, defence ministry says
If you followed the blog yesterday, you know I focused a lot on growing concerns and speculations about up to 10,000 US troops being potentially withdrawn from central and eastern Europe as part of a broader review of US military presence in Europe.
Romania, which would be one of the countries most affected, just got back to me on the speculations, with the country’s defence ministry insisting it “has not received any official information in this regard from the US.”
It said there are approx. 1,700 US troops in the country at the moment, and stressed it’s committed €2.5bn in the modernisation and expansion of the 57th airbase in Mihail Kogălniceanu, used by the Americans.
“Romania has been one of the first allied countries to raise its defence budget above 2% of GDP, constantly exceeding the commitment to invest a minimum of 20% in modern technology, which demonstrates our firm position to undertake increasingly important security responsibilities,” it added.
Morning opening: Tariffs? Doing very well, thank you.
US president Donald Trump continues to rewrite the rules of global trade, as his sweeping tariffs take effect.
Rates on imports to the United States from dozens of economies rose further from 12.01am (0401 GMT) on Wednesday, with tariffs imposed on Chinese products since Trump returned to the White House reaching a staggering 104%. The new tariffs include rates of 20% on the European Union, 26% on India and 49% on Cambodia.
Overnight, he appeared to show no signs of doubt or remorse, insisting “the tariffs, you’ve been hearing about tariffs – we’re taking in almost $2bn a day in tariffs, … and we’re doing very well.”
Using rather fruity language, he went on to tell his audience:
I think we’re going to do much better and just remember the numbers when you get up to $2bn a day, $2bn a day, they say sir, it can’t be that can it, I said, yeah, it can. It’s the biggest -- the biggest transaction ever made.
This is bigger than any deal you guys, some of you work for companies. Your companies are peanuts, I don’t care how big they are compared. This is the largest transaction in the history of our country.
And don’t let some of these politicians go around saying, you know, because I’m telling you these countries are calling us up kissing my ass. They are -- they are dying to make a deal.
If that wasn’t enough, Trump also signalled more “major” tariffs to be announced “very shortly”, specifically targeting pharmaceuticals.
The US president made it clear in the past that he had a particular gripe on this with Ireland, so let’s see if it’s a fortunate or unfortunate coincidence that Ireland’s deputy prime minister, foreign and trade minister Simon Harris is meeting with the US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick today.
This side of the Atlantic, we will see the EU finalise the first part of its response, with retaliatory tariffs against Trump’s original measures on steel and aluminium.
EU member states will vote on the final list on Wednesday, which targets €21bn of goods, down from €26bn originally foreseen, after talks with the EU’s 27 member states and many industry bodies. The list of potential targets facing mostly 25% retaliatory tariffs now ranges from almonds to yachts, via diamonds and dental floss, soya beans and steel parts. But bourbon and wine have been dropped.
It promises to be a yet another turbulent day for Europe, and if you want to keep an eye on the markets, you can also follow our business live blog in parallel here:
Elsewhere, I will be keeping an eye on:
Closing stages in German coalition talks, expected to be wrapped up today – potentially as early as midday – after late night talks and an early restart this morning;
Nato secretary general Mark Rutte’s visit to Japan where he is due to speak alongside the country’s prime minister Shigeru Ishiba;
French president Emmanuel Macron’s talks with embattled Serbian president Aleksander Vučić who continues to face mass protests led by student movements over alleged corruption;
Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal’s visit to Brussels for a meeting of the EU-Ukraine Association Council and talks with leading bloc leaders;
and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni welcoming the British royals as they continue their formal visit to Italy.
It’s Wednesday, 9 April 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
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