This evening is expected to be a monumental night for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Polls have consistently put them in a clear second place since the election was called. The fact they could gather some 20% of the vote would mark a huge shift in the German political spectrum. In 2021 they only received 10%.
Recent regional and European elections could be a barometer of their continued rise. They finished second overall in the EU vote, and regionally, in their heartland areas of East Germany, the state of Thuringia became the first German region to elect a far-right party since the Nazi era.
The party is stridently anti-immigration and has been designated as “suspected extremist” allowing increased monitoring from intelligence services.
The difficulties for the party though will come after the results and how the next German government in formed. They are likely to demand a role in government. But an unwritten rule of German politics essentially freezes out any mainstream co-operation with far-right parties – it’s known in German as the brandmauer – firewall.
Earlier in the election campaign Friedrich Merz tested the firewall’s stability by passing some non-binding migration legislation with the AfD. That move sparked mass protests across Germany.
The most likely outcome is that they will be frozen out of any coalition but be certain they will cry foul play.
